基于人类活动对资源与环境造成严重破坏的事实，以及人们环保意识的提高和对 于美好生活环境的追求，生态环境问题受到广泛关注。流域是一个集自然资源、社会 经济于一体的重要地理单元，是生态安全的重要研究尺度。 本文以滦河流域生态安全状况为研究对象，以优化流域生态安全评估方法、提出 改善生态安全水平的环境风险管控策略为目的，创建“压力—状态—功能—风险—管 理”（Pressure-State-Function-Risk-Management，简称PSFRM）评估模型，从五个维 度选取17个分项指标、42个评估指标，建立了4层次评估指标体系，采用了考虑各 评价对象加权得分与理想点广义距离最小和Jaynes最大熵原理两个因素的综合赋权 法，得到基于层次分析法和熵权法的综合权重，并根据环境特点及功能分区将流域划 分为6个评估单元，利用综合指数法进行评估。对于优化的指标模型和评估结果，从 逻辑分析、与前人研究对比、相关性分析、协调度、优势指数多角度进行验证。最后 采用风险矩阵法，对威胁到生态安全的风险因子进行识别和等级划分，结合各单元功 能定位制定环境风险管控策略，并以钢铁产业为例从行业角度提出管控建议。 生态安全评估结果表明，河北省滦河流域生态安全得分在50-65分之间，处于安 全和较安全水平。潘大水库上游、引滦入津评估单元生态安全得分分别为64.2和62.2， 均处在较安全水平，在6个单元中生态安全水平最高；大黑汀下游、青龙河、秦皇岛 和唐山评估单元生态安全得分分别为58.8、55.8、54.2和51.3分，虽然都处于安全水 平，但是大黑汀下游评估单元接近二级水平，而唐山评估单元得分最低，生态安全需 要得到足够重视。 风险分析结果表明，水资源利用压力大、有毒有害有机物浓度高、径污比过高成 为整个流域面临的共同问题，且风险等级最高；单位GDP能耗高、水源涵养指数低、 单位面积畜禽养殖量过高成为普遍的需要警惕预防的风险因素。此外，各单元还有土 壤侵蚀指数较高、土地利用压力大、人口密度较大、企业环境责任履行不到位、人均 GDP较低等各自特有的风险特征。 关键词：生态安全评估；滦河流域；PSFRM模型；风险管控 III Abstract Based on the fact that human activities have caused serious damage to resources and environment, as well as people's awareness of environmental protection and the pursuit of a better living environment, ecological and environmental issues have become a safety issue related to human safety and have received widespread attention. Basin is an important geographical unit integrating natural resources, society and economy, and is an important research scale of ecological security. Treating ecological security status of the Luanhe River Basin in Hebei Province as research object, this study aims to optimize the assessment method of ecological security of basin and propose environmental risk management strategies to improve the level of ecological security. For this purpose, the author of this article selecting 17 sub-indicators and 42 evaluation indicators from five dimensions, build a 4-level assessment indicator system with pressure-state-function-risk-management （PSFRM for short） model. Based on two factors: minimizing the distance between the weighted score of each evaluation object and the ideal point, and Jaynes maximum entropy principle, the comprehensive weight is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method. According to the environmental characteristics and functional division, the basin is divided into six evaluation units, and the comprehensive index method is used for ecological security assessment. For the optimized indicator model and evaluation results, verification is carried out from the perspectives of logic analysis, comparison with previous studies, correlation analysis, coordination degree and advantage index. Finally, the risk matrix method is used to identify and classify the risk factors that threaten ecological security, and to formulate environmental risk management and control strategies, based on the function of each unit. The steel industry is taken as an example to propose management and control strategies from the perspective of industry. The results of the ecological security assessment indicate that the ecological security score of the Luanhe River Basin in Hebei Province is between 50 and 65 points, which is generally safe and safer. The ecological security scores of the upstream watershed of the Panda Reservoir unit and in view of Luanhe River to Tianjin unit are 64.2 and 62.2 IV respectively, which are at a safer level. The ecological security level is the highest in the six units. The lower stream of the section of Daheiting Dam, Qinglong River, Qinhuangdao and Tangshan units’ scores of ecological security are 58.8, 55.8, 54.2 and 51.3 points respectively. Although they are all at a generally safe level, the lower stream of the section of Daheiting Dam unit is close to the second level, while the Tangshan evaluation unit scored the lowest, and the ecological security needs more attention. The risk matrix assessment results show that the high pressure on water resources, high concentration of toxic and harmful organics and the high ratio of runoff to sewage become the common problem faced by the whole river basin, and the risk level is the highest. High energy consumption per unit of GDP, low index of water conservation and excessive amount of livestock per unit have become common risk factors needing vigilance and prevention. In addition, each unit also has their unique risk characteristics: higher index of soil erosion, higher pressure of land use, higher density of population, lower environmental responsibility of enterprises, low level of per capita GDP and so on. Key words: Ecological security assessment; Luanhe River Basin; PSFRM model; Risk management and control V 目 录 摘要…………………………………………………………………………………- I - Abstract………………………………………………………………………………....- III - 第一章 绪论 . - 1 - 1.1 研究背景 ................... ..- 1 - 1.2 研究目的与意义 ......... - 1 - 1.3 研究内容与技术路线 . - 2 - 第二章 文献综述及相关理论基础 ........................ - 5 - 2.1 生态安全 ..................... - 5 - 2.1.1 概念与内涵 ....... - 5 - 2.1.2 研究框架 ........... - 5 - 2.1.3 评估方法 ........... - 6 - 2.1.4 研究现状 ........... - 8 - 2.2 环境风险管控 ........... ..- 9 - 2.2.1 环境风险 ........... - 9 - 2.2.2 风险管控 ........... - 9 - 2.2.3 研究现状 ......... - 11 - 2.3 其他相关理论 ........... - 12 - 2.3.1 环境管理 ......... - 12 - 2.3.2 企业环境责任 . - 13 - 2.3.3 环境库兹涅茨曲线 ........................ - 13 - 2.4 本章小结 ................... - 14 - 第三章 建立生态安全评估与风险分析模型 .... - 15 - 3.1 经典生态安全评估指标体系分析 .......... - 15 - 3.1.1 PSR指标体系 . - 15 - 3.1.2 DPSIR指标体系 ............................ - 15 - 3.1.3 DPSIRM指标体系 ........................ - 16 - 3.1.4 PSFR指标体系 .............................. - 17 - 3.2 建立PSFRM评估指标体系 ................... - 18 - 3.2.1 PSFRM评估指标体系原理 .......... - 18 - VI 3.2.2 评估指标体系构建原则 ................ - 19 - 3.2.3 指标筛选 ......... - 19 - 3.3 研究方法 ................... - 21 - 3.3.1 权重确定方法 . - 21 - 3.3.2 确定评估方法 . - 24 - 3.3.3 协调度与优势指数测算方法 ........ - 26 - 3.4 建立环境风险分析矩阵 .......................... - 27 - 3.5 本章小结 ................... - 28 - 第四章 滦河流域生态安全评估实证研究 ... - 29 - 4.1 研究区域概况 ........... - 29 - 4.1.1 评估范围 ......... - 29 - 4.1.2 评估区域自然特征 ........................ - 29 - 4.1.3 评估单元划分情况 ........................ - 30 - 4.2 建立滦河流域生态安全评估体系 .......... - 31 - 4.2.1 指标含义 ......... - 31 - 4.2.2 数据来源与赋分标准 .................... - 35 - 4.2.3 权重与评估体系结构 .................... - 35 - 4.3 滦河流域生态安全评估结果及分析 ...... - 39 - 4.3.1 生态安全指数与专项指标得分分析 ........................... - 39 - 4.3.2 分项指标情况分析 ........................ - 40 - 4.3.3 评估指标情况分析 ........................ - 41 - 4.4 评估结果检验 ........... - 44 - 4.5 本章小结 ................... - 46 - 第五章 环境风险管控策略分析 ................... - 49 - 5.1 评估单元环境风险识别与管控 .............. - 49 - 5.1.1 潘大水库上游评估单元 ................ - 49 - 5.1.2 引滦入津评估单元 ........................ - 51 - 5.1.3 大黑汀下游评估单元 .................... - 52 - 5.1.4 青龙河评估单元