本文以国内房地产行业从2006年到2018年期间的融资数据为基准，对国内房地 产行业进行调查、分析。研究结果发现随着房地产行业的不断发展，其融资规模也在 不断增加，整体呈上升趋势。对于整个房地产行业来说，其在经营时之所以面临的风 险较大，原因就在于房地产行业具有非常大的资金需求、较长的研发周期以及较大的 投资规模，并且极易受宏观政策等因素的影响。所以，对于房地产企业而言，其要想 在愈发激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地，那么就必须要加强对企业经营风险的管理工 作。 本文在分析目前房地产发展背景的基础上，结合国内外研究现状，提出XY房地 产经营风险的研究意义，并结合风险与房地产经营风险的概念，针对本文的核心概念 进行界定。随后在此基础上结合风险管理理论的过程以及评价方法的分析，为本文的 研究奠定理论与方法基础。接着，针对XY房地产公司经营现状和风险进行分析，分 别从财务风险以及非财务风险进行定性分析，并做风险来源的归纳。在对XY房地产 公司经营风险的评估中，文章结合模糊层次分析法，系统的针对六个一级指标进行分 析，通过指标选取建模做结果评价，最终发现XY房地产公司存在风险管理组织结构 不健全、财务风险预警机制缺失、信息传递不及时、缺乏必要的风险监控机制等问题。 最后文章结合风险管理理论，提出了建立风险评价体系，建立信息沟通机制以及完善 风险监控制度等一系列措施。 总体而言，本文通过对XY房地产公司的风险管理工作的研究，对其风险管理的 架构进行了设计和优化，使得企业风险管理架构的适用性及科学性得到了直接提升， 促进XY房地产公司的风险管理水平的提高。 关键词：经营风险；房地产企业；风险识别；风险评估；模糊评价 XY房地产公司经营风险评估与控制研究 II ABSTRACT Basedonthefinancingdataofdomesticrealestateindustryfrom2006to2018,this paperinvestigatesandanalyzesthedomesticrealestateindustry.Theresearchresultsshow thatwiththedevelopmentoftherealestateindustry,thefinancingscaleisalsoincreasing, andtheoveralltrendisontherise.Forthewholerealestateindustry,thereasonwhyit facesagreaterriskinoperationisthattherealestatehasaverylargecapitaldemand,a longerR&Dcycleandalargerinvestmentscale,andishighlyvulnerabletofactorssuch asmacropolicies.So,forrealestatecompanies,theywanttoremainunbeateninthe increasinglycompetitivemarketThemanagementofoperationalriskmustbe strengthened. Basedontheanalysisofthecurrentrealestatedevelopmentbackground,combined withthedomesticandforeignresearchstatus,thispaperputsforwardtheresearch significanceofXYrealestatemanagementrisk,andcombinestheconceptofriskandreal estatemanagementrisk.Thencombinedwiththeprocessofriskmanagementtheoryand theanalysisofevaluationmethods,thispaperlaysatheoreticalandmethodological foundation.Afterthat,thepresentsituationandrisksofXYrealestatecompaniesare analyzed,andthefinancialrisksandnon-financialrisksareanalyzedqualitatively,andthe risksourcesaresummarized.BasedontheevaluationofXYrealestatecompany's operatingrisk,thearticlecombinesthemodelAnalytichierarchyprocess(AHP), systematicanalysisofsixfirst-levelindicators,throughtheselectionofindicatorstomodel theresultsofevaluation,andfinallyfoundXYrealestatecompaniesriskmanagement organizationstructureisnotperfect,financialriskearlywarningmechanismismissing, informationtransmissionisnottimely,lackofnecessaryriskmonitoringmechanismand otherproblems.Intheend,thepaperputsforwardtheestablishmentofriskevaluation system,informationcommunicationmechanismandriskmonitoringsystem. Generallyspeaking,throughthestudyoftheriskmanagementworkofXYrealestate companies,thispaperdesignsandoptimizesthestructureofriskmanagement,which makestheapplicabilityandscientificnatureofenterpriseriskmanagementstructure directlyimproved,andpromotestheXYrealestatecompany'sriskmanagementleveltobe greatlyimproved. Keywords:operatingrisk；managementframework；riskidentification；risk assessment 河北地质大学硕士学位论文 III 目录 摘要..................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT............................................................................................................II 第一章绪论....................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景.................................................................................................................1 1.2研究意义.................................................................................................................2 1.3国内外研究现状.....................................................................................................2 1.3.1国外研究现状..............................................................................................2 1.3.2国内研究现状..............................................................................................4 1.3.3研究评述......................................................................................................6 1.4研究内容与方法.....................................................................................................6 1.4.1研究内容......................................................................................................6 1.4.2研究方法......................................................................................................7 1.5研究思路和技术路线图.........................................................................................7 1.5.1研究思路......................................................................................................7 1.5.2技术路线图..................................................................................................8 第二章风险管理相关理论及方法综述........................................................9 2.1相关概念的界定.....................................................................................................9 2.1.1风险..............................................................................................................9 2.1.2经营风险......................................................................................................9 2.2风险管理理论综述.............................................................................................10 2.2.1风险识别与评估........................................................................................10 2.2.2风险评价....................................................................................................11 2.2.3风险控制....................................................................................................12 2.3风险评价方法综述...............................................................................................12 2.3.1专家评分法................................................................................................13 2.3.2模糊层次分析法........................................................................................13 2.3.3等风险图法................................................................................................14 2.3.4层次分析法................................................................................................14 第三章XY房地产公司经营环境现状及风险识别......................................16 3.1宏观经营环境分析及风险识别...........................................................................16 3.1.1市场风险分析............................................................................................16 XY房地产公司经营风险评估与控制研究 IV 3.1.2经济风险分析............................................................................................17 3.2微观经营经营环境分析及风险识别...................................................................17 3.2.1财务风险....................................................................................................17 3.2.2决策与管理风险........................................................................................20 3.2.3销售风险....................................................................................................22 3.2.4生产风险....................................................................................................22 第四章XY房地产公司经营风险评估........................................................24 4.1XY房地产公司经营风险评估指标的构建............................