摘要 受2008年国际金融危机的影响，近年来全球经济增长速度明显放缓，通胀压 力逐步显现。当前通货膨胀已成为一种常态运营环境，且在短期内不会被消除。 通货膨胀导致的高额风险将直接影响到企业的日常运营，而企业是以供应链的形 式参与市场竞争的。因此，通货膨胀环境下高效的供应链管理是企业提高运作绩 效和竞争力的关键。另一方面，随着市场竞争日益加剧、科技更新加快和市场环 境快速多变，短生命周期产品正变得越来越普遍。通货膨胀环境下，短生命周期 产品供应链面临的不确定性和风险愈加突出。为应对复杂多变环境下供应链面临 的高额风险，期权合同作为供应链多源风险对冲的一种有效工具，被广泛应用于 不同行业和企业并取得了显著成效。因此，基于期权合同研究有效降低通货膨胀 导致的高额风险，确保短生命周期产品供应链高效稳健运行的管理理论与方法具 有重要的现实和理论意义。 本文考虑由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的单周期两阶段供应链，其中制造 商生产一类短生命周期产品，零售商从制造商处采购并销售给终端顾客。由于短 生命周期产品具有生产提前期长、销售周期短的典型特征，零售商必须提前进行 订货，而制造商往往在收到订单之后才开始生产。受通货膨胀的影响，在制造商 完成零售商订单的这段时间内，终端市场的零售价格和市场需求均会发生变化。 本文针对通货膨胀导致的零售价格上涨和市场需求萎缩，创新性地将通货膨胀和 期权博弈纳入统一的研究框架，基于不同的期权（看涨期权、看跌期权和双向期 权）合同，系统地构建了通货膨胀环境下的供应链期权博弈模型，研究了通货膨 胀环境下考虑期权合同时零售商的最优订货策略和制造商的最优生产策略。然后， 讨论了期权合同、需求风险、通货膨胀和不同合同参数对零售商和制造商的最优 决策和最大期望利润的影响。在此基础上，集成研究零售商视角与制造商视角的 供应链双边协调优化策略。最后，通过将考虑不同期权合同的情形进行相互对比， 分析了通货膨胀环境下期权合同类型的比较问题。主要研究内容和结论如下： 首先，研究考虑通货膨胀和随机需求的供应链看涨期权博弈模型。研究表明： 通货膨胀环境下看涨期权合同的运用对零售商和制造商均有利。出于自身利润的 考虑，零售商倾向采用包含看涨期权的组合合同，但制造商倾向提供看涨期权合 同。由于制造商在市场中占主导位置，最终供应链将选择执行看涨期权合同。考 虑看涨期权合同情形下，零售商的最大期望利润随需求风险的增大而减少，但制 造商的最大期望利润随需求风险的增大而增加；零售商和制造商的最大期望利润 I 摘要 随零售价格的上涨而增加、但随市场需求的萎缩而减少。通货膨胀环境下看涨期 权合同能够实现供应链的协调，且使供应链节点企业实现帕累托改进。 其次，研究考虑通货膨胀和随机需求的供应链看跌期权博弈模型。研究表明： 通货膨胀环境下看跌期权合同的运用对零售商和制造商均有利，最终供应链将选 择执行包含看跌期权的组合合同。考虑看跌期权合同情形下，零售商的最大期望 利润随需求风险的增大而减少，但制造商的最大期望利润随需求风险的增大而增 加；零售商和制造商的最大期望利润随零售价格的上涨而增加、但随市场需求的 萎缩而减少。通货膨胀环境下包含看跌期权的组合合同能够实现供应链的协调， 且使供应链节点企业实现帕累托改进。 再次，研究考虑通货膨胀和随机需求的供应链双向期权博弈模型。研究表明： 通货膨胀环境下双向期权合同的运用对零售商和制造商均有利，最终供应链将选 择执行包含双向期权的组合合同。考虑双向期权合同情形下，零售商的最大期望 利润随需求风险的增大而减少，但制造商的最大期望利润随需求风险的增大而增 加；零售商和制造商的最大期望利润随零售价格的上涨而增加、但随市场需求的 萎缩而减少。通货膨胀环境下包含双向期权的组合合同能够实现供应链的协调， 且使供应链节点企业实现帕累托改进。 最后，研究通货膨胀环境下期权合同类型的比较。研究表明：出于自身利润 的考虑，零售商倾向采用包含双向期权的组合合同，但制造商倾向提供看涨期权 合同。由于制造商在市场中占主导位置，最终供应链将选择执行看涨期权合同。 考虑不同期权合同的情形下，零售商的最大期望利润随需求风险的增大而减少， 但制造商的最大期望利润随需求风险的增大而增加；零售商和制造商的最大期望 利润随零售价格的上涨而增加、但随市场需求的萎缩而减少。 本文的研究结果为企业实际管理决策中的期权合同的选择、设计与优化提供 了理论依据，能帮助企业在通货膨胀环境下通过运用期权合同更好地优化管理策 略和提升运作绩效。本文为供应链管理研究提供了全新的研究视角，丰富了供应 链管理决策的情景，深化了供应链管理的内容。 关键词：短生命周期产品，通货膨胀，期权博弈，订货决策，生产决策，双边协 调策略 II ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Since the global financial crisis in 2008, there exists a significant slowdown in the global economy growth and the inflationary pressure has been further emerging over the past few years. In recent years, inflation characterizes a type of new normal operational environment and exerts a long-lasting influence on the market. Due to high risks caused by inflation, the firms’ daily operation has been influenced. Since the firms are always inseparable from their partners, the supply chain performance has also been influenced. Hence, supply chain management plays the most important part in the success of firms under inflation. On the other hand, due to increasing competition, speedy technological advancement and rapidly changing market, short life cycle products are becoming more and more common. The uncertainties faced by the short life cycle product supply chain are more outstanding under inflation. In order to protect against high risks from multiple sources under a complex environment, options contracts, as an effective risk hedging instrument, are widely applied in various industries and businesses and help them to gain very tangible benefits. Hence, there exist practical and theoretical values in the correlational research on how to reduce the high risks caused by inflation and ensure the efficient operation of the short life cycle product supply chain through the utilization of option contracts. This research considers a one-period two-echelon supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer. The manufacturer produces one type of short-life-cycle products. The retailer purchases from the manufacturer and then sells to end customers. Since the short-life-cycle products are characterized by a long production lead-time and a short selling period, the retailer must place an order in advance and the manufacturer always decides how many units to produce after receiving the order. Owing to the effect of inflation, both the retail price and the consumer demand in the terminal market will change simultaneously during the long production lead-time. Considering the situation of rising retail price and shrinking market demand caused by the inflation, this paper innovatively incorporates the effect of inflation and option contratcs game into a modeling framework. We formulate option game models based on different option (including call, put and bidirectional option) contracts under inflation, and then investigate the retailer’s optimal ordering policy and the manufacturer’s optimal III ABSTRACT production policy. Then, we discuss the impacts of option contracts, the demand risk, the inflation and the contract parameters on the supply chain decisions and performance, respectively. On this basis, we design a bilateral coordination policy for the supply chain from the perspectives of both the retailer and the manufacturer. Finally, through the mutual comparision for the cases with different option contracts, we further discuss the choice for the appropriate option contract type under inflation. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are given as follows. Firstly, we study the call option contracts game model for supply chain with stochastic demand under inflation. Our analytical results reveal that: the utilization of call option contracts benefits both the retailer and the manufacturer under inflation. The retailer prefers to adopt portfolio contracts with call options while the manufacturer is inclined to provide call option contracts under inflation. Since the market dominant position is taken by the manufacturer, call option contracts are implemented by the supply chain under inflation. With call option contracts, as the demand risk rises, the retailer’s maximum expected profit decreases while the manufacturer’s maximum expected profit increases; as the effect of inflation on the retail price increases, the maximum expected profits of both the retailer and the manufacturer increase; as the effect of inflation on the market demand increases, the maximum expected profits of both the retailer and the manufacturer