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MBA硕士毕业论文_公司现金流财务风险管理研究PDF

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今年面对新冠肺炎疫情爆发的重大突发情况,很多企业出现现金流问题,严 重的现金流枯竭甚至是断裂,连我们熟知的餐饮龙头企业西贝也声称如若三个月 不营业也将发不出工资,现金流告急。纵观近几年,因现金流产生问题引发企业 停滞甚至倒闭的现象越来越多。从众多共享单车企业因为资金跟不上无法退还押 金、无法偿还供应商欠款到众多P2P平台因现金流断裂而纷纷暴雷。我们可以看 到,企业出现经营亏损不一定会倒闭,但业绩优秀的企业如果遇上现金流断裂却 可能会轰然崩坍。因此,越来越多的企业领导者期盼可以采取一定的措施加强对 现金流的管控,进而对企业的现金流财务风险进行预防和应对。本文以A公司 为案例开展实证研究,通过建立现金流财务风险评估模型,有助于帮助企业管理 者评估目前企业存在风险,及时采取有效的措施应对风险,从而最大程度的帮助 企业降低损失。同时补充和完善现金流财务风险管理理论。 本文采用了文献资料法、多变量指标分析法、主成分分析法、比较分析法以 及案例研究法,将现金流财务风险管理作为研究内容,选取一家案例公司——A 公司,然后对所选案例公司——A公司进行现金流财务风险的识别、评估和控制。 首先对A公司2014年-2018年五年间的现金流量进行分析,包括分析A公司现 金流量的构成以及反映其营运能力、盈利能力和偿债能力的现金流财务指标,通 过分析发现A公司多项现金流财务指标低于标准值,且部分指标通过纵向对比 表现极不稳定,存在现金流财务风险,主要包括:偿还债务能力不足、流动性较 差、获利能力以及盈利质量较差。其次通过主成分分析法建立了A公司的现金 流财务风险评估模型:F=0.43716 F1+0.33173 F2,通过计算,对A公司2014年- 2018年的季度现金流情况进行综合打分评估,可以看到最近几年A公司的现金 流综合分值呈现下降趋势,现金流财务风险较高。最后针对目前的现金流财务风 险提出通过强化管理者以及普通员工的风险管理意识、提高预算的准确性、定期 做好现金流分析与考核等措施来加强对企业现金流财务风险的管理。 关键词:现金流,财务风险,风险管理 Abstract With the outbreak of new novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) , which directly result many enterprises’ cash flow problems in 2019. Even the well-known restaurant Xibei claims that it will not be able to pay off wages if it fails to operate for three months. In recent years, more and more enterprises have been stagnated or even closed down due to cash flow problems. From the Bicycle-sharing enterprises to many P2P financial management platforms failed to keep up with the cash flow. We can see that an enterprise with outstanding performance may collapse if it encounters a cash flow fracture. Therefore, many business leaders expect to prevent and deal with the financial risks of cash flow through effective management. In this paper, through the empirical case study to improve the current financial risk management theory of cash flow. Besides, through the establishment of cash flow financial risk assessment model, which can effectively help managers to identify risks, take effective measures to deal with the risks in time, so as to avoid losses. Therefore, this paper emphasizes the importance of cash flow financial risk management, through the analysis of the cash flow of company A for five years to identify the existence of cash flow financial risk of company A. Through the analysis, it is found that A company's many financial indicators of cash flow are lower than the standard value, and some of the indicators are extremely unstable through vertical comparison. There are cash flow risks, mainly including: insufficient solvency, poor liquidity and poor quality of profitability. Then through the principal component analysis method to build the company A's cash flow financial risk assessment model: F=0.43716 F1+0.33173 F2, and to score and assess the company A's quarterly cash flow situation for the year of 2014-2018. And we can see that company A's cash flow comprehensive score is decreasing for recent years and its cash flow financial risk is high. Finally, according to the current financial risk of cash flow, the paper proposes that enterprises can manage the financial risk of cash flow by strengthening the risk management awareness of employees, improving the accuracy of budget, and regularly doing cash flow analysis and assessment. Keywords: Cash flow,Financial risk, Risk management 中国地质大学(北京)专业硕士学位论文 目录 第1章 绪论 ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 已有研究文献综述 ............................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 现金流与财务风险的关系 ..................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 导致现金流财务风险的相关原因 ......................................................................... 3 1.2.3 现金流财务风险的评估方法 ................................................................................. 3 1.2.4 针对现金流财务风险,提出相应防范对策 ......................................................... 4 1.2.5 已有文献评述 ......................................................................................................... 5 1.3 研究思路 ............................................................................................................................ 6 1.4 研究内容和方法 ................................................................................................................ 7 1.4.1 研究内容 ................................................................................................................. 7 1.4.2 研究方法 ................................................................................................................. 8 第2章 现金流财务风险管理的理论基础 ......................................... 10 2.1 现金流财务风险管理的相关概念 .................................................................................. 10 2.1.1 现金流量的概念 ................................................................................................... 10 2.1.2 现金流财务风险的概念 ....................................................................................... 10 2.1.3 财务风险管理的概念 ........................................................................................... 10 2.2 现金流财务风险管理的相关理论 .................................................................................. 11 2.2.1 内部控制理论 ....................................................................................................... 11 2.2.2 代理理论 ............................................................................................................... 12 2.2.3 风险管理理论 ....................................................................................................... 13 2.2.4 DSO理论 ............................................................................................................... 14 第3章 A公司现金流财务风险识别 ............................................. 15 3.1 A公司基本情况及行业发展概况 ................................................................................... 15 3.1.1 A公司基本情况 .................................................................................................... 15 3.1.2 A公司的主要业务及经营模式 ............................................................................ 15 3.1.3 教育行业发展以及A公司在行业中的地位 ...................................................... 17 3.2 A公司现金流量管理现状 ............................................................................................... 19 3.3 A公司基于现金流的营运能力风险的识别 ................................................................... 22 3.4 A公司基于现金流的盈利能力风险的识别 ................................................................... 23 目录 3.5 A公司基于现金流的偿债能力风险的识别 ..........................