21世纪以来，PPP模式作为养老机构项目的新型建设方式开始广泛应用。 相较于传统的养老机构政府主导建设模式，PPP模式具有减轻政府财政资金压 力，提升公共项目服务效率，公共部门、私人部门以及其他参与主体均可获益 等优点。针对目前我国养老产业市场发育不健全、区域发展不平衡等现象，国 家不断加大对养老产业的扶持力度，同时积极推动养老服务领域PPP项目的推 广与建设。但是，养老机构PPP项目投融资成本大、参与方多，因此养老机构 PPP项目面临的风险具有动态性、非线性等特点，对这些复杂的风险因素进行 识别与评价是养老机构PPP项目成功实施的关键。本文基于系统动力学方法， 系统深入地识别并评价了养老机构PPP项目风险，保障项目的顺利进行。 首先，基于扎根理论，以养老机构PPP项目风险评价相关的论文文献资料 为分析样本，进行编码分析，揭示了风险形成机理，进而构建出养老机构PPP 项目风险初步识别框架。在此基础上，基于系统动力学方法，将养老机构PPP 项目风险视为一个研究系统，进而将该系统分为政府层面、市场层面、项目层 面和参与方层面风险这4个子系统，绘制养老机构PPP项目风险因果回路图， 定性分析了各个风险子系统与风险因素之间的关联反馈关系和作用路径，进一 步识别了项目风险。其次，绘制养老机构PPP项目风险存量流量图，确定边界 风险因素并进行专家打分赋值，进而利用综合集成赋权法对风险因素赋权并确 定表函数关系，在此基础上构建系统动力学方程式，最终建立养老机构PPP项 目风险评价的系统动力学模型，并对模型的有效性进行检验。最后，将建立的 养老机构PPP项目风险评价模型应用于姚家峪养老机构PPP项目中，分析项目 的风险水平，并利用风险因素敏感性分析，识别了影响姚家峪养老机构PPP项 目各风险子系统的关键风险因素，在此基础上提出相应的风险应对措施，为养 老机构PPP项目的风险评价提供了科学依据。 本文基于系统动力学方法，构造了客观科学的养老机构PPP项目风险识别 体系，并建立了该类项目的系统动力学风险评价模型。一方面丰富了养老机构 PPP项目的风险相关理论，另一方面也为养老机构PPP风险识别和风险评价提 供了新的思路。 关键词：养老机构；PPP项目；风险评价；系统动力学 II Abstract Since the beginning of the 21st century, the PPP model has begun to be widely used as a new construction method for pension institution projects. Compared with the traditional government-led construction model of pension institutions,PPP projects have the advantages of reducing the pressure on government financial funds, improving the efficiency of public project services, and benefiting the public sector, the private sector, and other participants. In response to the current inadequate development of the pension industry market and imbalanced regional development in China, the government has continuously increased its support for the pension industry, while actively promoting the promotion and construction of PPP projects in the pension service field. However, due to the characteristics of PPP projects in pension institutions, such as the large number of participants, large investment costs, high financing costs, and long construction cycles, coupled with the peculiarities of aged institution construction itself, the potential risk factors for pension institution PPP projects are diverse, phase and complex. Therefore, how to identify, analyze and evaluate these complex risk factors is a key issue that needs to be studied. First of all, based on the grounded theory, the risks of PPP projects in pension institutions are identified, and a preliminary list of risk factors for PPP projects in pension institutions is sorted out. On this basis, based on a system dynamics approach, the risk of PPP projects in pension institutions is considered as a research system, and the system is divided into government-level risk, market-level risk, project-level risk, and third-party level risk. This thesis analyzes the relationship between each of the key risk subsystems and risk factors, as well as the path of action, and constructs a risk-causal feedback map of PPP projects. Based on the risk causal feedback map, further identify the risks of the PPP project of the pension institutions. Secondly, draw up a risk flow chart of the PPP project for the pension institutions. Based on the integrated weighting method, the risk factors are weighted, and a dynamic model of the PPP project risk assessment system for the pension institution is constructed. Finally, taking Yaojiayu pension institution PPP project as an example, the system dynamics is used to carry out simulation to obtain the risk III level of the project. Through the sensitivity analysis of risk factors, the key risk factors of Yaojiayu pension institution PPP project are identified. On this basis, corresponding risk countermeasures are proposed. Based on the system dynamics method, this thesis constructs an objective and scientific risk identification system of PPP projects for pension institutions, and builds a system dynamic risk assessment model for such projects. On the one hand, it enriches the risk-related theories of PPP projects for pension institutions, and on the other hand, it provides new ideas for PPP projects for pension institutions in risk identification and risk assessment. Keywords：Pension Institution; PPP Project; Risk Assessment; System Dynamics IV 目 录 摘要 ............................................................................................................................. I ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... II 第1章 绪论 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1研究目的与意义 .................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1研究目的 ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2研究意义 ....................................................................................................... 2 1.2国内外研究现状 .................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1养老机构PPP项目 ....................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 PPP项目风险识别 ........................................................................................ 4 1.2.3 PPP项目风险评价 ........................................................................................ 4 1.2.4系统动力学在风险评价中的应用 ............................................................... 5 1.2.5国内外研究现状述评 ................................................................................... 6 1.3研究内容与方法 .................................................................................................. 6 1.3.1研究内容 ....................................................................................................... 6 1.3.2研究方法 ....................................................................................................... 7 第2章 相关概念与理论基础 ..................................................................................... 9 2.1养老机构PPP项目概述 ..................................................................................... 9 2.1.1养老机构 ....................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2 PPP项目 ...................................................................................................... 10 2.1.3 PPP模式引入养老机构的适用性 .............................................................. 12 2.2 PPP项目风险识别与评价 ................................................................................ 13 2.2.1 PPP项目风险识别 ...................................................................................... 14 2.2.2 PPP项目风险评价 ...................................................................................... 15 2.3系统动力学理论 ................................................................................................ 17 2.3.1系统动力学介绍 ......................................................................................... 17 2.3.2系统动力学模型构成 ................................................................................. 17 2.3.3系统动力学