-I- 摘要 在我国企业发展过程中，管理层的财务风险认识存在一定的局限性。在财务风 险评价过程中，缺乏全面、系统地考虑，导致财务风险评价水平降低，使企业发展 受财务风险威胁增大。在我国社会经济迅猛发展的大背景下，经济发展进入转型期， 在新的形势下如何做好财务风险评价，成为我国企业长远发展的关键问题。 首先，本文对企业财务风险综合评价研究背景和意义进行了介绍，对财务管理 理论进行了分析；全面、系统地阐述了企业财务风险评价的主要内容和特点，对研 究方法也进行了阐述。 其次，对企业风险评价指标体系进行了构建分析。在宏观方面，分析了综合评 价研究的内容及特征；在细节上，阐述了企业财务风险评价总体目标、构建原则、 如何构建，具体列出了一级指标与二级指标。 再次，对秦港股份公司财务状况进行分析，通过利用层次分析法，对秦港股份 公司财务风险评价的一级指标、二级指标权重值进行确定，利用模糊综合评价法对 秦港股份公司进行财务风险评价，从而在财务风险评价过程中，对财务风险进行针 对性的把控，提升财务风险评价质量。 最后，确定秦港股份公司财务风险评价等级后，针对现阶段秦港股份公司存在 的财务风险问题，设计从偿债、盈利、运营等方面的风险控制对策，进而降低财务 风险发生几率，更好地促进秦港股份公司的发展。 关键词：秦港股份公司；财务风险；模糊分析法；层次分析法 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -II- ABSTRACT Intheprocessofdevelopment,Chineseenterpriseshavecertainlimitationsonthe understandingoffinancialrisks.Intheprocessoffinancialriskassessment,thelackof comprehensiveandsystematicconsiderationsleadstoalowleveloffinancialrisk assessment,whichmakesthedevelopmentofenterprisesriskedbyfinancialrisks.With therapiddevelopmentofChina'ssocialeconomy,thecurrenteconomicdevelopmenthas enteredatransitionalperiod.Underthesituation,howtodoagoodjobinfinancialrisk assessmenthasbecomethekeytothelong-termdevelopmentandprogressofenterprises. Firstly,thispaperintroducestheresearchbackgroundandsignificanceofcorporate financialriskcomprehensiveevaluation,analyzesthefinancialmanagementtheory, comprehensivelyandsystematicallyexpoundsthemaincontentandcharacteristicsof enterprisefinancialriskassessment,andalsoexpoundstheresearchmethods. Secondly,thepaperanalyzestheenterpriseriskevaluationindexsystem.Onthe macrolevel,thecontentandcharacteristicsofthecomprehensiveevaluationresearchare analyzed.Onthemicrolevel,theoverallobjectives,constructionprinciplesandhowto constructthefinancialriskassessmentoftheenterpriseareexpounded,andthefirst-level indicatorsandthesecond-levelindicatorsarelistedindetail. Thirdly,thepaperanalyzesthefinancialstatusofQinangCo.,Ltd.,andusesthe analytichierarchyprocesstodeterminetheweightvalueofthefirst-levelindexandthe second-levelindexofthefinancialriskassessmentofQinangCo.,Ltd.,andusesthe methodtoconducttheQingangStockCompany.Financialriskassessment,intheprocess ofriskassessment,targetedcontrolofrisks,improvethequalityofriskassessment. Finally,afterdeterminingthefinancialriskassessmentlevelofQinangCo.,Ltd.,in ordertosolvethefinancialriskproblemsofQingangCo.,Ltd.atpresent,wewilldesign riskcontrolmeasuresfromdebtrepayment,profit,operation,etc.,therebyreducingthe probabilityoffinancialrisksandbetter.PromotethedevelopmentofQinangCo.,Ltd. Keywords:QinhuangdaoprotCO.,LTD.;financialrisk;fuzzyanalysismethod;Analytic hierarchyprocess 目录 -III- 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................II 第1章绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1选题背景及意义.....................................................................................................1 1.1.1选题背景.......................................................................................................1 1.1.2选题意义.......................................................................................................1 1.2国内外研究现状.....................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状...............................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状...............................................................................................3 1.2.3国内外研究评述...........................................................................................5 1.3研究内容和方法.....................................................................................................5 1.3.1研究内容.......................................................................................................5 1.3.2研究方法.......................................................................................................6 第2章财务风险管理基本理论概述.................................................................................7 2.1财务风险定义.........................................................................................................7 2.1.1风险的界定...................................................................................................7 2.1.2财务风险概念...............................................................................................7 2.2财务风险相关理论.................................................................................................8 2.2.1风险评价理论...............................................................................................8 2.2.2参与评价的风险种类...................................................................................8 2.3财务风险评价方法.................................................................................................9 2.3.1层次分析法...................................................................................................9 2.3.2模糊综合评价法.........................................................................................10 2.4本章小结...............................................................................................................10 第3章秦港股份公司财务风险现状分析.......................................................................11 3.1秦港股份公司简介...............................................................................................11 3.2秦港股份公司财务风险现状分析.......................................................................11 3.2.1偿债现状分析.............................................................................................13 3.2.2盈利现状分析.............................................................................................14 3.2.3运营现状分析.............................................................................................15 3.2.4公司成长现状分析.....................................................................................16 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -IV- 3.2.5现金状况分析.............................................................................................16 3.3秦港股份公司财务风险问题...............................................................................17 3.3.1制度文化缺失.............................................................................................17 3.3.2缺乏评价体系监管制度.............................................................................18 3.3.3缺少财务风险应对能力.............................................................................19 3.3.4风险管控机制尚不健全.............................................................................20 3.4秦港股份公司财务风险评价不足的原因...........................................................21 3.4.1外部原因.....................................................................................................21 3.4.2内部原因.....................................................................................................22 3.5本章小结...............................................................................................................23 第4章秦港股份公司财务风险评价体系构建.......................................................