I 摘要 随着移动互联网技术的快速发展，移动互联网也成为像水电煤一样的基础设 施，促进了智慧医疗的发展。YD项目是XK公司针对中风或其它神经系统损伤引 起的偏瘫，进行康复治疗而研发的智能设备。 XK公司在研发YD项目的过程中，需要掌握运动捕捉算法、传感器技术，涉 及到研发、采购、工业设计、开模、测试等环节。各个环节中的进度需要同步和协 调，所有环节中的进度将制约整个项目的研发周期。因此实施项目进度管理，能够 保证项目研发按照进度开展，从而促进项目研发成功。项目开展过中，由于项目参 与人员自身的技能，市场变化，产品最终呈现方式及满足用户需求的程度，诸多的 风险也会影响项目的研发成功。因此实施项目风险管理，将能够提升项目参与人员 应对风险的意识和水平，进而提高项目研发成功的可能。 笔者在YD项目研发过程中，借助项目进度管理知识理论，结合XK公司实际 情况，将项目分解成不同的项目阶段。对不同的阶段再次进行分解，最终分解为活 动。使用专家判断及类比估计方法对项目活动时间进行估算。根据活动估算项目总 体时间，结合不同活动之间的逻辑关系，制定项目进度计划并对活动进行排序，同 时对项目中的关键路径进行分析，找到可能影响项目进度的活动。对于测试过程设 计、开模、PCB打板等耗时较长的活动，结合项目实际情况，对活动进行优化，能 够提前开展的项目可以提前开展，保证项目按照进度计划执行。在项目风险管理方 面，借助项目进度管理知识理论，首先从风险来源进行分析，完成风险分类。通过 使用头脑风暴、因果图、专家判断、综合法等完成风险识别。使用风险定性分析对 YD项目中的风险进行分析，形成项目风险清单。针对项目风险清单，标注风险应 对策略。针对项目风险，建立风险监控来监控风险，最终保证能够应对项目中出现 的风险。 本文基于YD项目，对项目进度管理理论进行了研究，借助项目进度管理工 具，完成YD项目进度管理工作；借助风险管理理论知识和工作，对项目风险进行 管理，解决项目中存在的问题。对YD项目实施进度和风险管理，可以为研发同类 型的复杂智慧医疗项目提供的一定的参考和借鉴。 关键词：项目进度管理，项目风险管理，智慧医疗 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT In accompany with the rapid progress of internet technology, easy-to-access internet becomes one of the basic supplies for daily life like water, electricity and gas. The internet has boosted the development of intelligent medicine. The YD project, which was initiated by XK company, is aiming at developing an intelligent medical device for rehabilitation treatment of hemiplegia patients caused by stroke or other nerve system injuries. The YD project involves much research work on motion capture algorithms and sensor techniques, and requires the cooperation of multiple departments such as R&D, purchasing, industry design, mold design, testing department, etc. The work load and schedule of these departments must be well managed so as to guarantee the progress of the whole project. As a result, it is critical to implement effective project progress management. In addition, risks such as the capability of project members, the change of market needs, and the gaps between customer requirements and product functions, cast impact on the project. Risk management is therefore required to improve the capability of the project members on dealing with these risks. During the progress of the project, the project is first divided into different phases based on the project management theory and the condition of XK company. The isolated phases are further divided into smaller units called activities. The Expert judgement and analogy estimation method is used to estimate the time requirement of each activity. With consideration of the overall project time table and the relationship between different activities, the project schedule is drafted and activities are ordered. In the meantime, the key path of the project is analyzed, and the key activities are extracted and to be optimized. For the activities that may require longer time such as testing, mold design and PCB assembly, they are implemented well in advance to guarantee the overall time schedule. In risk management aspect, the source of risk is first located and the severity is classified. The risk is identified by means of brain storming, cause-and-effect diagram, expert judgement and synthesis method. The risk list is finally drafted by using risk qualitative analysis method. The responses to the risks are also given in the list. A risk monitoring system is built to deal with the risks. As a summary, the application of project management theory and project management tools on YD project is reported in this thesis. And risks of the project are ABSTRACT III analyzed and dealt with by means of risk management theories. The practices reported in this thesis provide a reference for similar projects that are associated with R&D of intelligent and complicated medical devices. Key words: project schedule management, risk management, intelligent medical 目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究内容及研究目标 ........................................................................................ 1 1.3 研究方法 ............................................................................................................ 2 1.4 论文的结构 ........................................................................................................ 2 第二章 理论基础及关键技术研究 ................................................................................ 4 2.1 项目管理理论概述 ............................................................................................ 4 2.1.1 项目的定义 .............................................................................................. 4 2.1.2 项目管理 .................................................................................................. 4 2.2 项目进度理论 .................................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 项目进度计划管理及方法 ...................................................................... 5 2.2.2 项目进度控制原理和方法 ...................................................................... 7 2.3 项目风险理论 .................................................................................................... 8 2.3.1 风险概述 .................................................................................................. 8 2.3.2 项目风险管理概述 .................................................................................. 9 2.3.3 项目风险管理过程 .................................................................................. 9 2.4 本章小结 ............................................................................................................ 9 第三章 XK公司YD项目介绍 .................................................................................... 10 3.1 XK公司概况 .................................................................................................... 10 3.2 YD项目情况 .................................................................................................... 10 3.2.1 项目背景 ................................................................................................ 10 3.2.2 YD项目概述 .......................................................................................... 11 3.2.3 项目存在的问题 .................................................................................... 16 3.3 主要技术指标 .................................................................................................. 17 3.3.1 病人康复训练终端 ................................................................................ 17 3.3.2 医生手持终端 ........................................................................................ 18 3.3.3 数据中心 ................................................................................................ 18 3.4 系统难点分析 .................................................................................................. 18 3.5 项目组织架构 .................................................................................................. 18 3.6 本章小结 ........