近年来互联网金融伴随着互联网信息技术的发展而得到快速发展，P2P网络 借贷也随之迅猛发展，同时也爆发出了很多风险，诸多风险中借款人的信用风险 是P2P网贷行业发展过程中存在的最大风险，如何对P2P网贷借款人信用风险有 效评估，更好的降低P2P网贷借款人的信用风险变得尤其重要。P2P网络借贷主 要是解决有小微资金需求的人群融资难的问题，这是对我国传统金融贷款行业的 有效补充，为了其能够健康持续的发展必须加强它的借款人信用风险评估，进而 降低借款人信用风险提高其竞争力。当前国内P2P网贷平台主要是借鉴国外P2P 网贷平台的借款人信用风险评估方法，但是由于当前我国的征信体系不太完善， 容易存在借款人信用风险评估的准确性不高、稳定性不强等问题。 本文从P2P网贷借款人信用风险评估角度出发，对国内外关于借款人信用风 险评估的大量文献资料进行查阅分析。结合我国当前的P2P网络借贷行业的发展 状况，对P2P网贷行业借款人信用风险评估现状进行分析。依据科学性、动静相 结合、针对性、独立性、可靠性原则建立借款人信用风险评估指标，从而根据当 前P2P网贷行业的特点选出合理的信用风险评估指标来架构P2P网贷平台借款人 信用风险评估模型。 通过网络技术从人人贷网贷平台采集的借款人信息数据，对借款人信用风险 评估指标分类，利用信息增益筛选借款人信用风险评估指标，然后进行WOE值替 代原值，进行Logistic回归分析，构建P2P网贷平台借款人信用风险评估模型。 将采集到的人人贷借款人信用风险评估指标代入模型进行验证新的P2P网贷借 款人信用风险评估模型的有效性。经过把人人贷借款人信用风险指标代入新的借 款人信用风险评估模型得出的违约率高于采集到的人人贷官网公布的最近三年 的借款人违约率，说明本文构建的P2P网贷平台借款人信用风险评估模型有一定 有效性以及参考性。通过本文对借款人信用风险评估的研究希望能够有助于P2P 网贷行业的健康发展。 关键词：互联网金融；借款人信用评估；P2P；网贷平台；运营模式；信用指标 体系 北京理工大学硕士学位论文 II Abstract Inrecentyears,Internetfinancehasbeendevelopingrapidlywith thedevelopmentofInternetinformationtechnology.P2Pnetworklending hasalsodevelopedrapidly.Atthesametime,therearemanyrisks.The creditriskoftheborrowers,especiallytheborrowers,isthebiggest riskinthedevelopmentofP2Pnetworklendingindustry.Howtoborrow andborrowfromtheP2PnetworkItisespeciallyimportanttoevaluate theborrower'screditriskeffectivelyandreducethecreditriskofP2P borrowers.P2Pnetworklendingismainlyaproblemtosolvetheproblem offinancingforpeoplewithsmallandmicrofunds.Thisisaneffective supplementtothetraditionalfinancialloanindustryinChina.Forits healthyandsustainabledevelopment,itmuststrengthenitsborrower's creditriskassessmentsoastoreducetheborrower'screditrisksoas toimproveitscompetitiveness.ThecurrentdomesticP2Pnetworklending platformismainlyaborrower'screditriskassessmentmethodfromforeign P2Pnetworklendingplatform.However,duetothelackofperfectcredit systeminourcountry,theaccuracyoftheborrower'screditrisk assessmentisnothighandthestabilityisnotstrong. FromtheperspectiveofP2Pnetworkborrower'screditriskassessment, thispaperanalysesalargenumberofdocumentsabouttheborrower's creditriskassessmentathomeandabroadbinedwiththecurrent developmentofP2PlendingindustryinChina,thebasictheoryofP2P networklendingborrowers'creditriskassessmentisanalyzed.According totheprinciplesofscience,combinationofdynamicandstatic,andthe principleofpertinence,independenceandreliability,theborrower's creditindexevaluationsystemissetup,andareasonablecreditindex isselectedtoconstructthecreditriskassessmentmodelofP2Pnetwork borroweraccordingtothecharacteristicsofthecurrentP2Pnetwork lendingindustry. Accordingtotheborrower'screditindexsystem,theborrower's creditindexisselectedaccordingtotheborrower'screditindex evaluationsystemandtheborrower'screditindexisselectedaccording totheborrower'screditindexevaluationsystem.ThentheWOEreplacement iscarriedoutandtheLogisticregressionanalysisiscarriedoutto 北京理工大学硕士学位论文 III constructthecreditriskassessmentmodeloftheP2Ploanborrower.The datacollectedfromallborrowersandborrowersarecollectedintothe modeltoverifythevalidityoftheborrower'screditriskassessment model.Byreplacingtheborrower'sinformationdataintotheborrower's creditriskassessmentmodel,thedefaultrateishigherthanthe borrower'sdefaultratepublishedinthelastthreeyears.Itisproved thatthecreditriskassessmentmodeloftheP2Pnetworkborrowerismore predictablethanthehumanloanassessmentmodel.Thereisacertain advantage.However,theborrower'sinformationdatacollectedbythis modelislimitedtoeveryone'sloanplatform,andhascertainlimitations. Itisnotnecessarilysuitablefortheevaluationofcreditriskofall P2Pborrowers. Keywords:InternetFinance;CreditAssessmentforBorrowers;P2P;Online LendingPlatform;OperationalModels;CreditIndicatorSystem 北京理工大学硕士学位论文 IV 目录 第１章绪论................................................................................................1 1.1选题背景及研究意义.....................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景..............................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义..............................................................................................2 1.2文献综述.........................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状......................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状......................................................................................4 1.2.3国内外研究评述..................................................................................5 1.3研究基本框架.................................................................................................5 1.3.1研究思路与研究方法..........................................................................5 1.3.2本文创新点..........................................................................................6 1.3.3本文结构..............................................................................................6 第2章P2P网贷行业现状与信用风险评估分析..................................8 2.1网贷行业发展现状.........................................................................................8 2.1.1网贷行业发展历程..............................................................................8 2.1.2网贷行业存在的主要风险................................................................13 2.2借款人信用风险分析...................................................................................15 2.2.1借款人信用风险现状........................................................................15 2.2.2借款人信用风险成因分析................................................................16 2.3借款人信用风险评估模型分析...................................................................18 2.3.1国外借款人信用风险评估现状........................................................18 2.3.2国外借款人信用风险评估模型分析................................................19 2.3.3国内借款人信用风险评估现状........................................................20 2.3.4国内借款人信用风险评估模型分析................................................21 第3章基于人人贷借款人信用风险评估模型的构建.........................23 3.1人人贷借款人信用风险评估现状...............................................................23 3.1.1人人贷介绍........................................................................................23 3.2.1人人贷借款人信用风险评估分析....................................................23 3.2借款人信用风险评估指标筛选...................................................................25 3.2.1借款人信用风险评估指标分析........................................................25 3.2.2借款人信用风险评估指标筛选原则................................................26 3.2.3借款人信用风险评估指标选取........................................................27 3.3借款人信用风险评估模型的构建...............................................................29 3.3.1借款人信用风险评估指标数据来源................................................29 3.3.2信息增益进行指标筛选....................................................................3