I 摘要 “一带一路”沿线区域位于地中海-喜马拉雅地震带和环太平洋地震带上，是 全球地震灾害最频发、损失最严重的区域之一，但因“一带一路”沿线区域内多 是经济不发达国家，在防震减灾方面的投入相对较少，保险损失分散能力不足， 巨灾风险分散方式比较单一，制约各国参与“一带一路”建设。因此，抓装一 带一路”战略发展机遇，借鉴全球及区域巨灾风险分散模式，积极推进“一带一 路”沿线区域地震巨灾风险分散的国际合作具有重要的战略意义。 本文运用了文献研究法、实证研究法和定性与定量分析法等研究方法，重点 对“一带一路”地震巨灾国际合作基金进行研究。首先，本文梳理了地震巨灾风 险分散和基金等方面的国内外研究现状和相关理论。其次，本文分析了“一带一 路”地震巨灾国际合作基金建立的可行性与必要性，据此设计了“一带一路”地 震巨灾国际合作基金的运作机制，包含基金的组织结构、运作框架和运营管理。 再次，运用BP神经网络模型以及VaR方法测算在不同风险容忍度下的基金初始 规模。在风险容忍度99.5%时，基金规模为91.08千万美元，而风险容忍度降到 99%时，规模变为63.32千万美元，不同风险容忍度下基金规模呈现出明显差异。 随后，综合运用因子分析、聚类分析和加权平均方法计算出“一带一路”沿线区域 国家A、B、C三个缴费等级的缴费比例分别为45%、33%、22%，并依此计算出 不同风险容忍度下各类国家应缴费的金额。最后，本文将“一带一路”地震巨灾基 金损失分散机制划分为五层：第一、二层是地震巨灾损失小于25.08千万美元亿 时，由被保险人和直接保险人共同承担，其中被保险人承担免赔额以下的部分， 直接保险人承担免赔额至25.08千万美元的部分；第三层是25.08万美元至44.48 千万美元之间的地震巨灾损失由“一带一路”地震巨灾基金承担；第四层是当地震 巨灾损失超过44.48千万美元亿元时，由国际再保险市场分担；第五层是当损失 超过63.32千万美元时，由各国政府充当最后分散人。 关 键 词：“一带一路”；地震巨灾；国际合作基金 论文类型：研究类 选题来源：国家社科基金重点项目（15AGL103） ABSTRACT III ABSTRACT The area along The Belt and Road is located in the Mediterranean-Himalayan Seismic Belt and the Pacific Rim Seismic Belt. It is one of the most frequent and most serious earthquake disasters in the world, but most of the areas in The Belt and Road are economically underdeveloped countries. The investment in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction is relatively small, the insurance loss compensation ability is insufficient, and the catastrophe risk dispersion method is relatively simple, which restricts the participation of countries in the construction of The Belt and Road construction. Therefore, it is of great strategic significance to seize the strategic opportunity of The Belt and Road and learn from the global and regional catastrophe risk dispersion model and actively promote the international cooperation of The Belt and Road regional earthquake catastrophe risk dispersion. In this paper, the methods of literature research, empirical research and qualitative and quantitative analysis are used to study the International Cooperation Fund for earthquake disaster. Firstly, this paper combs the domestic and international research status and related theories of earthquake catastrophe risk dispersion and catastrophe international cooperation fund. Secondly, This paper analyzes the feasibility and necessity of the establishment of The Belt and Road earthquake catastrophe international cooperation fund. Based on this, the operation mechanism of The Belt and Road earthquake catastrophe international cooperation fund was designed, including the fund's organizational structure, operational framework and operational management. Thirdly, BP neural network model and VaR method to calculate the initial scale of funds under different risk tolerance. When the risk tolerance is 99.5%, the size of the fund is 91.08 million US dollars, and when the risk tolerance is reduced to 99%, the size becomes 63.320 million US dollars. Under different risk tolerance, the size of the fund shows obvious differences. Subsequently, the factor analysis, cluster analysis and weighted average method were used to calculate the contribution rates of the three payment levels of countries A, B and C in the area along The Belt and Road, which were 45%, 33% and 22% respectively. Based on this, the amount of contributions payable by different countries under different risk tolerance is calculated. Finally, this paper divides the loss compensation mechanism of The Belt and Road Earthquake Catastrophe Fund into five levels: the first, second level the first, second ABSTRACT IV level are when the earthquake catastrophe loss is less than $2.508 billion, which is jointly assumed by the insured and the direct insurer, where the Insured undertakes the following part of the deductible, and the direct insurer takes the deductible amount to $2.508 billion. The third level is the earthquake catastrophe loss between $2.508 and $4.448 billion. The fourth level is shared by the international reinsurance market when the earthquake catastrophe losses exceed $4.448 billion. The fifth, when the losses exceed $6.332 billion, governments act as final compensators. KEY WORDS: The Belt and Road; Earthquake catastrophe; International cooperation Fund Dissertation type: Research Subject source: The key project of the National Social Science Fund(15AGL103) 目录 V 目 录 第一章 绪 论 .............................................. 1 第一节 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................. 1 一、研究背景 ............................................................................................................... 1 二、研究意义 ............................................................................................................... 2 第二节 国内外研究现状 ................................................................................................. 2 一、国外研究现状 ....................................................................................................... 2 二、国内研究现状 ....................................................................................................... 4 三、国内外研究现状评述 .......................................................................................... 6 第三节 研究思路与内容 ................................................................................................. 6 一、研究思路 ............................................................................................................... 6 二、研究内容 ............................................................................................................... 7 第四节 研究方法 ............................................................................................................. 8 第二章 地震巨灾风险分散与基金相关理论概述 .................. 9 第一节 地震巨灾 ............................................................................................................. 9 一、地震定义 ............................................................................................................... 9 二、巨灾的定义及划分标准 ...................................................................................... 9 第二节 地震巨灾风险理论........................................................................................... 11 一、风险、巨灾风险及其分类 ................................................................................ 11 二、地震巨灾风险特征............................................................................................. 11 第三节 地震巨灾风险分散........................................................................................... 12 一、地震巨灾风险分散工具 .................................................................................... 12 二、地震巨灾风险分散模式 .................................................................................... 13 第四节 巨灾国际合作基金相关理论 .......................................................................... 14 一、巨灾风险分散国际合作 .................................................................................... 14 二、巨灾国际合作基金理论 .................................................................................... 14 第三章 建立“一带一