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MBA毕业论文_银行H分行农村客户个人住房贷款风险管理策略PDF

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I 摘要 随着我国城镇化制度不断调整,城镇化进程不断推进,农村客户个人住房贷 款在商业银行信贷业务中的比重逐渐增大,这也加剧了农村客户个人住房贷款风 险的快速集聚。对于城镇化的农村客户来说,主要收入较多的还是依赖在城市务 工,工作稳定性较差、收入偏低,当其收入或者家庭出现特殊变故时,就会无力 偿还贷款,这在无形中加大了商业银行的个人住房贷款风险。 A银行H分行个人住房贷款业务起始于2008年,近年来,个人住房贷款业务, 特别是农村客户个人住房贷款业务,在整体业务中的占比不断增加,已然成为了A 银行H分行的核心信贷业务。但快速增长带来的衍生性风险也就更加难以预判, 所以,系统性的梳理A银行H分行农村客户个人信贷风险,并据此构建有利于提 高A银行H分行个人住房贷款业务抗风险能力的应对策略,以助推A银行H分行 健康、可持续的稳定发展。 本文通过定量分析法对A银行H分行个人住房贷款农村客户出现的风险因素 进行实证分析,基于借款人信用、业务操作、市场环境三个维度梳理了A银行H 分行个人住房贷款业务风险形成的原因。结合分析结果,针对农村客户的信用风 险提出:A银行H分行应调整首付款比例、更新动态数据、引入房屋保险等措施; 针对银行操作风险提出:加强农户贷款流程管理、优化资产业务结构、提高内部 员工风险防范意识等对策;结合市场风险对A银行H分行提出了:落实相关法律 法规、随时关注政策变化、及时做好市场预判、快速反应应对突发事件、强化与 外部合作管理制度等应对建议。本论文的研究,对我国商业银行,特别是基层支 行应对农村客户个人住房贷款业务开展具有较强的针对性,对提高商业银行核心 竞争力具有重要意义。 关键词:城镇化;A银行H分行;个人住房贷款;风险管理 Abstract II Abstract WiththecontinuousadjustmentofChina'surbanizationsystemandthecontinuous advancementofurbanizationprocess,theproportionofruralcustomers'personal housingloansinthecreditbusinessofcommercialbanksisgraduallyincreasing,which alsointensifiestherapidconcentrationofruralcustomers'personalhousingloanrisks. Fortheurbanizationofruralcustomers,themainincomeisstilldependentonworking inthecity,theworkstabilityispoor,theincomeislow,whentheirincomeorfamilyhas specialchanges,theywillbeunabletorepaytheloan,whichvirtuallyincreasestherisk ofpersonalhousingloanofcommercialbanks. HbranchofbankAstartedpersonalhousingloanbusinessasearlyas2008.In recentyears,personalhousingloanbusinessforruralcustomershasalreadybecomethe coretraditionalcreditbusinessofHbranchofbankA.However,therapidgrowthhas alsobroughtderivativerisksthataredifficulttopredict.Atthistime,weshould systematicallyclarifythepersonalcreditriskfactorsofHbranchofbankAforrural customers,andaccordinglybuildcountermeasurestoimprovetheantiriskabilityofH branchofbankAforpersonalhousingloanbusiness,soastopromotethehealthyand stablesustainabledevelopmentofHbranchofbankA. Throughquantitativeanalysis,thispaperempiricallyanalyzestheriskfactorsofH branchofbankA'spersonalhousingloantoruralcustomers,andcombsthecausesofH branchofbankA'spersonalhousingloanbusinessriskbasedonthethreedimensionsof borrower'scredit,businessoperationandmarketenvironment.Combinedwiththe analysisresults,thepaperputsforwardthatHbranchofbankAshouldadjustthedown paymentratio,updatethedynamicdata,introducehousinginsuranceandother measuresforthecreditriskofruralcustomers;fortheoperationalriskofbank,the paperputsforwardsomecountermeasures,suchasstrengtheningthemanagementof farmers'loanprocess,optimizingtheassetbusinessstructure,andimprovingtherisk preventionawarenessofinternalstaff;combinedwiththemarketrisk,thepaperputs forwardsomesuggestionsforHbranchofbankA,suchas:implementingthepolicy Relevantlawsandregulations,payattentiontopolicychangesatanytime,doagood jobinmarketprediction,respondtoemergenciesquickly,andstrengthenthe managementsystemofexternalcooperation.Theresearchofthispaperhasastrong Abstract III pertinenceforChina'scommercialbanks,especiallythegrass-rootsbranches,tocarry outthebusinessofpersonalhousingloansforruralcustomers,andisofgreat significancetoimprovethecorecompetitivenessofcommercialbanks. Keywords:urbanization;HbranchofbankA;personalhousingloan;riskmanagement 目录 IV 目录 摘要................................................................................................................................I Abstract.............................................................................................................................II 第1章绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景............................................................................................................1 1.2研究意义............................................................................................................2 1.2.1理论意义.................................................................................................2 1.2.2实践意义.................................................................................................2 1.3文献综述............................................................................................................3 1.3.1商业银行风险管理理论研究.................................................................3 1.3.2个人贷款风险管理相关研究.................................................................4 1.3.3个人住房贷款风险管理相关研究.........................................................5 1.3.4文献述评.................................................................................................7 1.4研究方法............................................................................................................7 1.5研究创新............................................................................................................8 1.6技术路线............................................................................................................8 第2章相关概念及理论概述.........................................................................................9 2.1相关概念概述....................................................................................................9 2.1.1城镇化概念.............................................................................................9 2.1.2个人住房贷款定义.................................................................................9 2.1.3个人住房贷款政策.................................................................................9 2.1.4商业个人住房贷款风险界定...............................................................10 2.2相关理论概述..................................................................................................11 2.2.1全面风险管理理论...............................................................................11 2.2.2信息不对称理论...................................................................................14 2.2.3理性违约与被动违约理论...................................................................14 2.3本章小结..........................................................................................................14 第3章A银行H分行个人住房贷款发展现状及问题分析......................................15 3.1A银行H分行人住房贷款概述.......................................................................15 3.1.1A银行H分行简介................................................................................15 目录 V 3.1.2A银行H分行个人住房货款业务特征................................................15 3.2A银行H分行个人住房贷款类别与客户界定...............................................16 3.2.1A银行H分行个人住房贷款类别........................................................16 3.2.2A银行H分行个人住房贷款客户界定................................................17 3.3A银行H分行农村客户个人贷款违约问题分析...........................................19 3.4本章小结..........................................................................................................21 第4章A银行H分行农村客户个人贷款风险成因分析..........................................22 4.1A银行H分行农村客户个人住房贷款违约实证分析...................................22 4.1.1因素的选取与研究假设.......................................................................22 4.1.2因素量化...............................................................................................25 4.1.3描述性分析...........................................................................................25 4.1.4回归分析...............................................................................................26 4.2A银行H分行农村客户个人贷款风险成因分析...........................................28 4.2.1借款人信用风险成因...........................................................................28 4.2.2银行内部操作风险成因.......................................................................29 4.2.3市场风险成因.......................................................................................30 4.3本章小结..........................................................................................................31 第5章A银行H分行农村客户个人住房贷款风险管理对策..................................32 5.1针对农村客户信用风险提出的针对性对策..................................................32 5.1.1关注农村客户人群...............................................................................32 5.1.2调整首付比率.......................................................................................32 5.1.3更新动态数据.......................................................................................32 5.1.4引入房屋保险.......................................................................................33 5.2针对银行内部操作风险提出的防范对策......................................................34 5.2.1加强农村客户个人住房贷款流程管理...............................................34 5.2.2提高内部员工风险防范意识...............................................................35 5.3针对市场风险提出相应风险防范对策..........................................................36 5.3.1落实相关法律法规...............................................................................36 5.3.2随时关注政策变化,及时做好市场预判...........................................36 5.3.3快速反应应对突发事件.......................................................................36 5.3.4强化与外部合作管理制度...................................................................37 5.4本章小结..........................................................................................................37 结论.............................................................................................................................38