：目前，我国经济正处于从快速发展向高质量发展的转型关键 期，在此背景下我国公司在注重自身产业发展的同时更要关注自身财 务分析，及时防范财务风险，促进公司高质量发展。如果特变电工衡 阳变压器公司要顺利完成公司的预期盈利，对企业风险进行及时把 控，同时及时了解企业现金流量以及财务情况等等是公司高质量经营 中必不可少的一环，财务分析能够实现对财务指标的监督控制，当发 现有财务危机存在时，及时采取措施，化解风险，消除危机。 本文对目标公司特变电工衡阳变压器有限公司进行分析，首先介 绍特变电工衡阳变压器有限公司的概况和财务情况，然后从资本结构 和资产结构、财务状况和财务成果、现金流三方面展现财务情况，在 财务风险评估方面，计算出该公司的盈利能力、筹资能力、偿债能力 和发展能力进行单变量分析，再基于因子分析法和Z模型分析法，分 析特变电工衡阳变压器有限公司财务风险情况。同时在调查该公司财 务基本情况之后，利用财务风险评估模型分析结果，结合财务报表数 据，挖掘财务风险原因，制定合理举措来防范衡变公司财务风险。本 文研究重点：第一，特变电工衡阳变压器公司的财务报表分析；第二， 对衡变公司财务风险的评估；第三，财务风险防控措施的研究。 特变电工衡阳变压器有限公司采用数据分析法、文献分析法和对 比分析法，利用因子分析模型正确地分析特变电工衡阳变压器公司 10年中财务风险的基本情况，并通过z模型与两家同类上市公司之 间的比较分析了2018年的风险值数据的可靠性，对比近4年间因子 II 分析模型和Z-score模型风险值的变化趋势，发现2018年风险值较高， 需要优化风控体系。 关键词：财务风险；风险评估；财务风险防范优化 III Research On Financial Risk Assessment Of Hengyang TB Company Zhou Qiao（MBA） Directed by Huang De Zhong Abstract：At present, China's economy is in a critical period of transition from rapid development to high-quality development. In this context, Chinese companies should pay more attention to their own financial analysis while focusing on their own industrial development, timely prevent financial risks, and promote high-quality development of the company. If Hengyang TB company wants to successfully complete the expected profits of the company, timely control the enterprise risks, and timely understand the cash flow and financial situation of the enterprise, etc., it is an essential part of the company's high-quality operation. Financial analysis can achieve the supervision and control of financial indicators. When it is found that there is a financial crisis, timely measures should be taken to resolve the risk and eliminate the crisis. This paper analyzes the target company TBEA Hengyang Transformer Co., Ltd., first introduces the general situation and financial situation of TB company, then shows the financial situation from three aspects of capital structure and asset structure, financial situation and financial results, cash flow, at the same time, calculaes the company's profitability, financing ability, debt paying ability and development ability, and IV compares with similar enterprises Ratio. In terms of financial risk assessment, based on factor analysis and Z model analysis, the financial risk of TBEA Hengyang Transformer Co., Ltd. is analyzed. At the same time, after investigating the basic financial situation of the company, the analysis results of financial risk assessment model are used, combined with financial statement data, the causes of financial risk are mined, and reasonable measures are formulated to prevent the financial risk of TB company. This paper focuses on: first, TBEA Hengyang transformer company's financial statement analysis; second, TB company's financial risk assessment; third, financial risk prevention and control measures. TBEA Hengyang Transformer Co., Ltd. uses data analysis method, literature analysis method and comparative analysis method to correctly analyze the basic situation of financial risk of TBEA Hengyang transformer company in 10 years by using factor analysis model, and analyzes the reliability of risk value data in 2018 by comparing Z model with two similar listed companies, and compares factor analysis model in recent 4 years According to the change trend of risk value of model B and Z-score, it is found that the risk value is higher in 2018, so the risk control system needs to be optimized. Keywords: financial risk risk assessment optimization of financial risk prevention V 目 录 摘要..........................................................................................................I Abstract..................................................................................................III 第1章 绪论.........................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景及研究意义...............................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景.........................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义.........................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状.......................................................................1 1.2.1 财务分析研究.................................................................1 1.2.2 财务风险评价研究.........................................................2 1.2.3 财务风险预警研究.........................................................3 1.2.4 财务风险影响因素分析.................................................3 1.2.5 财务风险控制与防范研究.............................................4 1.2.6 研究述评.........................................................................4 1.3 研究内容、方法.......................................................................5 1.3.1 研究内容.........................................................................5 1.3.2 研究思路.........................................................................5 1.3.3 研究方法.........................................................................6 1.3.4 研究重点与难点.............................................................6 1.3.5 研究创新之处.................................................................6 第2章 财务风险概念和理论基础.....................................................9 2.1 财务风险的概念.......................................................................9 VI 2.2 财务风险的类型.......................................................................9 2.3 财务风险的理论基础.............................................................10 2.4 财务风险评价模型-因子分析法模型...................................12 2.4.1 公司财务风险评价指标的选取原则...........................13 2.4.2 公司财务风险评价指标的选取...................................14 2.5 财务风险评价模型-Z-score模型介绍................................17 第3章 公司财务现状分析...............................................................19 3.1 特变电工衡阳变压器有限公司简介.....................................19 3.2 特变电工衡阳变压器有限公司财务情况的分析.................19 3.2.1 资产负债分析...............................................................19 3.2.2 经营成果分析...............................................................21 3.2.3 现金流量分析...............................................................22 3.2.4 财务报表综合分析.......................................................24 第4章 公司财务风险研究.................................................................29 4.1 单变量分析............................................................................29 4.2 财务风险分析—因子分析法..................................................32 4.2.1 公司财务风险评价因子模型的构建及分析.................32 4.2.2 公司财务风险评价结果分析.......................................32 4.3 财务分析-Z-score模型........................................................37 4.3.1 基于Z-Score模型的财务风险分析...........................37 4.4 风险评估总结.........................................................................38 4.5 财务风险原因.........................................................................39 VII 4.5.1 成长风险原因...............................................................39 4.5.2 筹资风险原因...............................................................40 4.5.3 投资风险原因.........