在经过二十多年地高速发展之后，我国经济已进入中速发展阶段。在国内经 济模式转型升级，全球经济一体化与贸易保护主义并存的背景下，我国的企业正 面临更为复杂的外部经营环境。同时，企业自身存在管理与经营方面的薄弱环节， 这些内外部因素都可能引起财务风险。H机床工具公司是一家典型的制造业企业， 2015年至2019年这5个会计年度中，企业在日常经营之中存在着诸多财务困境， 进而有可能引发一系列的财务风险。财务风险对企业影响巨大，有些情况下甚至 决定着整个企业的生存与发展。因此，H机床工具公司有必要根据自身的实际情 况，采用科学合理、准确可行的措施，识别定位企业财务风险，量化评估企业财 务风险，并据此制定相应的财务风险防范与控制措施，以减小甚至规避财务风险， 保证企业长期稳定发展。 H公司作为研究对象，经过识别财务风险，评价财务风险，最终提出H公 司的财务风险控制措施。具体来说，本文围绕H公司整个经营活动生态圈，通 过向H公司管理层、供应链上下游企业、主管税务部门、贷款银行等调研对象 发放H公司财务风险调查问卷，从多个角度全面识别该企业的财务风险。在此 基础上，划分筹资风险、投资风险、资金经营风险、收益分配风险四个层面，结 合公司财务报表分析H公司财务风险成因。通过查阅中外学者在财务风险分析 领域的相关文献，比较分析了多种财务风险评价的数学模型，发现功效系数法的 准确性与可行性较为均衡，由此选取该方法作为本文的财务风险评价方法。H公 司风险评价按以下步骤逐步展开。首先是通过皮尔森相关性分析筛选指标集，剔 除冗余指标并建立精简高效的财务风险评价指标体系；然后是通过德尔菲法，发 放基于层次分析法的专家函，分析专家意见以确定各项指标的权重；最后基于改 进的功效系数法建立财务风险评价模型，导入数据完成H公司财务风险评价。 通过计算后得出H公司财务风险评价结果重大风险。结合财务风险识别与财务 江苏大学工商管理硕士（MBA）学位论文 II 风险评级结果，为H公司针对性地制定出一系列财务风险防范、控制与保障措 施。研究最终得出三点结论：一是构建H公司风险评价分析体系，为H公司评 价财务风险提供有力的支持。二是H公司2017-2019三年的财务风险综合评价结 果为重大风险、重大风险、较大风险，总体评级为重大风险。三是H公司对财 务风险的控制刻不容缓，应从多个方面结合自身实际情况来制定可行的控制措施， 并不断反馈评估控制结果以优化控制措施。 关键词：财务风险，功效系数法，风险评价，风险控制 江苏大学工商管理硕士（MBA）学位论文 III ABSTRACT After more than 20 years of rapid development, China's economy has entered the stage of medium speed development. Under the background of the transformation and upgrading of domestic economic model, the coexistence of global economic integration and trade protectionism, Chinese enterprises are facing a more complex external business environment. At the same time, the enterprise itself has weak links in management and operation, which may cause financial risks. Company H is a typical manufacturing enterprise. In the five accounting years from 2015 to 2019, there are many financial difficulties in the daily operation of the enterprise, which may lead to a series of financial risks. Financial risk has a huge impact on enterprises, and even determines the survival and development of the whole enterprise in some cases. Therefore, it is necessary for company H to adopt scientific, reasonable, accurate and feasible measures according to its actual situation, identify and locate the financial risks of the enterprise, evaluate the financial risks quantitatively, and formulate corresponding financial risk prevention and control measures accordingly, so as to reduce or even avoid the financial risks and ensure the long-term and stable development of the enterprise. Company H is the research object, after identifying the financial risk, evaluating the financial risk, finally put forward the financial risk control measures of company H. Specifically, this paper focuses on the whole business activity ecosystem of H company, through the distribution of H company's financial risk questionnaire to the management, upstream and downstream enterprises of supply chain, competent tax authorities, loan banks and other research objects, and comprehensively identifies the financial risk of H company from multiple perspectives. On this basis, it is divided into four levels: financing risk, investment risk, capital operation risk and income distribution risk. Through consulting the relevant literature of Chinese and foreign scholars in the field of financial risk analysis, this paper compares and analyzes a 江苏大学工商管理硕士（MBA）学位论文 IV variety of mathematical models of financial risk assessment, and finds that the accuracy and feasibility of the efficiency coefficient method is relatively balanced, so this method is selected as the financial risk assessment method of this paper. Company H's risk assessment is carried out step by step according to the following steps. Firstly, through Pearson correlation analysis, the index set is selected, redundant indexes are eliminated and a simplified and efficient financial risk evaluation index system is established; secondly, through Delphi method, the expert letter based on AHP is issued, and the expert opinions are analyzed to determine the weight of each index; finally, based on the improved efficiency coefficient method, the financial risk evaluation model is established, and the data is imported to complete H company Financial risk assessment. Through the calculation, the significant risks of the financial risk assessment results of company H are obtained. Combined with the results of financial risk identification and financial risk rating, a series of financial risk prevention, control and guarantee measures are formulated for company H. Finally, three conclusions are drawn: first, to build the risk evaluation and analysis system of company H to provide strong support for company H to evaluate financial risk. Second, the comprehensive evaluation results of H company's financial risks in 2017-2019 are major risks, major risks and major risks, and the overall rating is major risks. Thirdly, company H's control of financial risk is urgent. Feasible control measures should be formulated from many aspects in combination with its own actual situation, and the control results should be continuously fed back and evaluated to optimize the control measures. Key Words: Financial risk, Efficiency coefficient method, Risk assessment, Risk control 江苏大学工商管理硕士（MBA）学位论文 V 目 录 第一章 绪论 .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究的背景和意义.......................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究目的与意义.................................................................................... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状.............................................................................................. 3 1.2.1 国外研究现状........................................................................................ 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状........................................................................................ 8 1.3 研究内容和方法............................................................................................ 11 1.3.1 研究内容.............................................................................................. 11 1.3.2 研究方法.............................................................................................. 14 第2章 研究的理论基础............................................................................................ 16 2.1 财务风险概述................................................................................................ 16 2.1.1 财务风险的定义.................................................................................. 16 2.1.2 财务风险的特征.................................................................................. 16 2.1.3 财务风险的分类.................................................................................. 17 2.2 财务风险识别与评价相关理论.................................................................... 19 2.2.1 财务风险识别方法................