物流业是支撑国民经济发展的基础性、战略性产业。近年来，江苏省物流业取得了 长足发展，对经济社会发展发挥了重要作用，为了更好地制定江苏省物流业政策，更加 高效地发挥物流产业的重要作用以及促进江苏省物流产业的高质量发展，还必须进一步 明确江苏省物流业与三次产业之间的产业关联关系和产业波及效果。因此，本文就江苏 省物流业对三次产业的影响展开研究。 在投入产出理论分析的基础上，首先测出了江苏省物流业对三次产业的弹性系数， 然后建立江苏省物流产业投入产出表，其次分析江苏省物流业与三次产业的关联关系， 最后测出江苏省物流业对三次产业的波及效果。研究发现：（1）江苏省物流业作为中 间型产业，它的发展对江苏省的经济发展起到巨大的积极影响；（2）江苏省物流业的 影响力系数值为0.9961≈1，江苏省物流业的感应度系数大于1，表明江苏省物流业的发 展对江苏省的国民经济起到了推动作用，而不是单纯依赖国民经济发展带动物流业发 展。江苏省物流业应当作为主导产业进行发展；（3）江苏省物流业对消费的依赖程度 要高于对投资和出口的依赖，属于消费依赖性产业。而当江苏省物流业产品价格改变时， 总产出也会相应的发生变化最后，提出了“提升物流业自身水平，促进物流业向投入率 低、附加值高的产业转化，提升物流效率，加强基础设施建设，充分利用减税降费政策” 的对策建议。 关键词：物流业；三次产业；产业关联分析；产业波及效果分析 研究类型：应用研究 Abstract Logisticsindustryisthefoundationandstrategicindustrytosupportthedevelopmentof nationaleconomy.Inrecentyears,Jiangsulogisticsindustryhasachievedgreatdevelopment andplaysanimportantroleineconomicandsocialdevelopment.Inordertoformulate Jiangsulogisticspolicy,givefullplaytotheimportantroleoflogisticsindustryefficiently, andpromotethehighqualitydevelopmentofJiangsulogisticsindustry,itisalsonecessaryto furtherclarifytherelationshipbetweenJiangsulogisticsindustryandthethreeindustriesand theeffectofindustrialspread.ThispapermakesresearchontheinfluenceofLogistics IndustryinJiangsuprovinceonthreeindustries. Thepaperisbasedontheanalysisoftheinput-outputtheories.First,measureelastic indexofthethreeindustriesinthelogisticsofJiangsuprovince.Then,establishthe input-outputtableofthelogisticsindustryinJiangsu,analyzethecorrelationbetween logisticsindustryandthreeindustries.Last,figureoutthespreadeffectoflogisticsindustry onthreeindustries.Thestudyfindsthat:(1)asanintermediateindustry,thedevelopmentof logisticshasapositiveeffectontheeconomyofJiangsu.(2)theinfluencevalueoflogistics industryinJiangsuProvinceis0.9961≈1,andtheinductancecoefficientoflogisticsindustry inJiangsuprovinceisgreaterthan1,indicatingthatthedevelopmentoflogisticsindustryin JiangsuprovincehaspromotedthenationaleconomyofJiangsuprovince,insteadofrelying solelyonthedevelopmentofnationaleconomytodrivethedevelopmentoflogisticsindustry, thelogisticsindustryinJiangsuprovinceshouldbedevelopedasaleadingindustry.(3)The logisticsinJiangsureliesmoreonconsumptionthanoninvestmentandexport.Itbelongsto consumptiondependentindustry.WhentheproductpriceoflogisticsindustryinJiangsu changes,theoutputwillbecorrespondingchange.Finally,thefollowingmeasuresareput Subject：ResearchontheInfluenceofLogisticsIndustryof JiangsuProvinceonThreeIndustriesBasedon Input-outputMethod Specialty：MasterofBusinessAdministration Name：SunRan（Signature） Instructor：ZouShaohui（Signature） forward:“Improvetheleveloflogisticsitself,promotetheindustrialtransformationof logisticsindustrytothelowinputrateandhighaddedvalue,elevatetheefficiencyoflogistics industry,strengthentheconstructionofinfrastructure,andmakefulluseofthepolicyoftax reduction.” Keywords：LogisticsIndustry;ThreeIndustries;IndustryCorrelationAnalysis;Industry RippleEffectAnalysis Thesis：ApplicationResearch 目录 I 目录 1绪论.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景与意义..........................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景..........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义..........................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究综述.........................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究综述..................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究综述..................................................................................................3 1.2.3文献评述..........................................................................................................6 1.3研究内容、方法与技术路线图.................................................................................6 1.3.1研究内容..........................................................................................................6 1.3.2研究方法..........................................................................................................7 1.3.3技术路线图......................................................................................................7 2江苏省物流业和三次产业现状分析.....................................................................................9 2.1物流业现状分析.........................................................................................................9 2.1.1物流业产值及其增速......................................................................................9 2.1.2物流业产值占第三产业的比重....................................................................10 2.2三次产业现状分析...................................................................................................10 2.2.1GDP总量及增速............................................................................................11 2.2.2三次产业占比................................................................................................12 2.3三次产业物流弹性分析............................................................................................13 3江苏省物流业投入产出表建立...........................................................................................15 3.1投入产出影响机理....................................................................................................15 3.2投入产出表的基本结构............................................................................................15 3.2.1投入产出表的平衡关系................................................................................15 3.2.2投入产出模型................................................................................................17 3.3江苏省物流业投入产出表建立................................................................................17 4江苏省物流业与三次产业的产业关联分析.......................................................................19 4.1理论模型....................................................................................................................19 4.1.1直接消耗系数、完全消耗系数和完全需求系数........................................19 4.1.2直接分配系数、完全分配系数和完全感应系数........................................20 4.1.3中间投入率和中间需求率............................................................................20 目录 II 4.2产业关联分析实证研究............................................................................................22 4.2.1直接消耗系数、完全消耗系数和完全需求系数........................................22 4.2.2直接分配系数、完全分配系数和完全感应系数........................................23 4.2.3中间投入率和中间需求率............................................................................25 4.2.4实证结果分析................................................................................................25 5江苏省物流业与三次产业的产业波及效果研究...............................................................27 5.1理论模型....................................................................................................................27 5.1.1影响力系数和感应度系数..................................................................