I 摘要 随着我国经济发展进程加快，小微企业在其中所占的比重和作用也越来越大， 并且小微企业对解决就业问题和民生问题发挥着很大作用，仅从数量来看，小微 企业在我国全部的企业总数中占据的比例达到 80%，促进和引导小微企业健康持 续发展成为我国经济发展的重要议题，其中一个重要方面就是小微企业的融资问 题，可持续的资金来源是制约企业发展的一个重要方面，融资问题在小微企业发 展过程中显得尤为突出。在这个背景下，一方面，国家在各种政策上推出对小微 企业的优惠措施，为商业银行向小微企业贷款提供了政策制度上的支持；另一方 面，在实际应用过程中，由于小微企业自身的原因，以及小微企业与商业银行之 间的信息不对称的问题，小微企业可抵押资产从数量和质量上都相对不高。对于 商业银行来说，把控好小微企业信贷业务成本和收益的平衡，尤其是降低小微企 业信贷风险，对商业银行来说至关重要。商业银行对小微企业的风险把控既是响 应国家政策，也是其拓宽客户的重要渠道，小微企业的信贷风险控制成为城商行 的重中之重。 本文通过对小微企业贷款风险形成的机理的理论进行分析，通过 5C 评估法的 三个层面提出假设，以委托代理理论为基础，采用 Johnson 掏空模型作为基本模型， 探究小微企业贷款问题中的债权人治理机制问题，提出假设之后，构建了 Logit 模 型并且通过 H 城商行实际信贷工作中的 150 组数据进行实证检验，通过实证检验 的结果，提出新的指标以及根据显著性检验结果对原有指标体系进行优化，对优 化后的指标重新确定其权重，在确定权重的过程中采用了德尔菲法（专家意见法） 和 AHP 层次分析法，从而得出一个新的 H 城商行小微企业信贷风险评估指标打分 表，在 H 城商行原有风险评估指标体系的基础上优化该指标体系。 关键词：城商行；小微企业；Johnson 模型；指标体系；AHP 层次分析；信贷风险Abstract II Abstract With the acceleration of China's economic development process, small and micro enterprises play an important role in solving the employment and livelihood problems. Only from the perspective of quantity, they account for 80% of the total number of enterprises in China. That’s why it becomes a focus question. We need to promote and guide the healthy and sustainable development of the small enterprises . One of the important aspects is the financing of small and micro enterprises . For the first part, the state has introduced preferential measures on various policies for them. For another part, because of the information asymmetry between small and micro enterprises and commercial banks, and also small and micro enterprises can mortgage assets from the quantity and quality are relatively low. Standing on the view of the commercial banks, it is very important to balance the cost and income of credit business of small and micro enterprises, especially to reduce the credit risk. The risk control on small and micro enterprises is not only in response to national policies, but also an important channel for them to broaden customers. Therefore, credit risk control of small and micro enterprises has become the top priority of city commercial banks. Based on the principal-agent theory, this paper uses Johnson tunneling model as the basic model to explore the problem of creditor governance mechanism in the loan problem of small and micro enterprises. After putting forward the hypothesis, this paper constructs logit model and uses 150 groups of data of actual credit industry of H city commercial bank in the process of empirical test. Through the results of empirical test, this paper puts forward new indicators and optimizes the original index system according to the results of significance test, and redetermine the weight of the optimized indicators. Then we can get a new risk assessment index scoring table of H city commercial bank for small and micro enterprises. Based on the original risk assessment index system of H City Commercial Bank, the index system is optimized. Keywords: city commercial bank; small and micro business; model of Johnson; the indicator system; AHP hierarchy analysis; credit risk目 录 III 目 录 摘要·········································································································I Abstract·······································································································II 第 1 章 绪论·································································································1 1.1 研究的背景与意义··············································································1 1.1.1 研究背景·····················································································1 1.1.2 研究意义·····················································································2 1.2 国内外研究的现状··············································································2 1.2.1 国外研究现状·············································································· 2 1.2.2 国内研究现状·············································································· 4 1.3 研究内容与研究方法···········································································6 1.3.1 研究内容·····················································································6 1.3.2 研究方法·····················································································8 1.4 本文的创新点与不足···········································································8 第 2 章 相关理论综述·····················································································9 2.1 委托代理理论····················································································9 2.1.1 委托代理理论·············································································· 9 2.1.2 双重委托代理理论········································································ 9 2.2 大股东掏空范式··············································································· 10 2.3 小微企业信贷风险管理理论································································12 2.3.1 信息不对称理论··········································································12 2.3.2 贷款承诺理论·············································································13 2.3.3 信贷配给理论·············································································13 2.3.4 全面风险管理理论·······································································13 2.4 小微企业信贷风险评价理论································································14 2.4.1 信贷风险评价体系的界定······························································14 2.4.2 信贷风险评价方法·······································································14 第 3 章 H 城商行信贷风险管理现状·································································17 3.1 H 城商行概况··················································································· 17 3.2 H 城商行信贷业务管理架构·································································17目 录 IV 3.3 H 城商行小微企业信贷风险评价方法·····················································19 3.4 H 城商行信贷风险评价体系存在的问题··················································20 3.4.1 信贷风险指标体系不够健全···························································20 3.4.2 信贷风险评估建设不完善······························································20 3.4.3 贷款审核制度有待规范·································································21 3.4.4 信贷风险控制机制缺乏·································································21 3.4.5 约束机制不健全··········································································21 3.4.6 信贷风险控制意识淡堡································································21 第 4 章 H 城商行小微企业信贷风险评估指标体系优化·········································23 4.1 H 城商行小微企业信贷风险评价指标的分析············································23 4.1.1 参照 5C 评估法确定指标范围·························································23 4.1.2 通过 Johnson 模型提出假设··························································· 24 4.1.3 定义各个变量以及构建 Logit 模型···················································25 4.1.4 实证结果与分析··········································································26 4.2 指标的选取及权重的确定···································································27 4.2.1 指标的选趣···············································································27 4.2.2 各项指标权重的确定····································································28 4.2.3 优化后的 H 城商行小微企业信贷风险评价指标体系表·························35 第 5 章 H 城商行小微企业信贷风险管理改进建议···············································39 5.1 不断完善信贷风险管理制度································································39 5.2 不断根据实际情况更新小微企业的信用评级体系·····································40 5.3 加强贷前贷后管理，健全小微企业信贷预警机制·····································41 结论··········································································································44