自20世纪80年代开始，PPP(即公私合营)作为一种新型的项目融资模式， 在提出之后便在各种公共设施建设领域得到快速运用和发展。PPP模式一方面可 以为政府减少财政支出压力，另一方面也能为社会资本提供新的投资领域，提高 社会公共服务和基础设施建设的标准水平，实现社会公众、政府部门和企业共赢 的效果。目前，在公共服务和城市基础设施方面，我国地方政府普遍存在缺口明 显、财政压力大等现象，PPP模式的广泛推行具有巨大的潜力和重要的意义。 海绵城市建设是我国社会公共服务设施建设的组成部分，也是开展政府和社 会资本合作的领域之一。随着我国对生态环境治理要求的不断提高，运用PPP 模式引入社会资本参加海绵城市的建设，是解决当前公共服务质量不高、社会管 理效率低下、基础设施建设资金不足的最佳手段和途径。 企业投资参与海绵城市PPP项目，主要目的是为了获取合理的预期回报， 但由于海绵城市PPP项目的风险因素多样性，以及项目的长期性、复杂性等原 因，在进行海绵城市PPP项目投资决策时，如何识别和评估项目的风险，准确 分析和判断项目的投资价值，是企业首要关注的问题。 本文站在企业的立场和视角，以深水集团光明新区海绵城市PPP项目为实 例，聚焦于海绵城市PPP项目风险和投资决策的研究。首先是对项目初始预测 与实际运营情况的投资收益进行分析，通过定量和定性相结合的方法，进行识别、 评估了影响光明新区海绵城市PPP项目投资回报的关键风险因素，结合项目实 际情况和风险分担原则，指出了企业应重点关注的主要风险因素。其次，通过运 用CAPM和WACC计算模型，计算出水务、环境治理行业的基准收益率水平R。， 设计了项目投资决策模型；最后，利用蒙特卡洛模拟，分析不同风险因素对项目 投资收益率(IRR)产生的影响，最终与行业基准收益率R。对比，推算得到投资 项目可行性的边界条件，从而为企业在投资决策、与政府部门的协商谈判提供参 考意见。 关键词：海绵城市项目风险投资分析投资决策 MBA学位论文作者：杨伟泽深水集团光明新区海绵城市PPP项目投资决策研究 II RESEARCHONINVESTMENTDECISIONOFPPP PROJECTINSPONGECITYONGUANGMINGNEW AREAPROJECTOFSHENZHENWATERGROUP Sincethe1980s,PPP(public-privatejointventure)asanewprojectfinancing modehasbeenrapidlyusedanddevelopedinvariouspublicfacilitiesconstruction fields.Ontheonehand,PPPmodelcanprovidenewinvestmentfieldsforsocial capital,ontheotherhand,itcanalsoreducethepressureonthegovernment's financialexpenditure,optimizethestandardsofsocialpublicservicesand infrastructureconstruction,andachievewin-winresultsforthepublic,government departmentsandenterprises.Atpresent,intermsofpublicservicesandurban infrastructure,localgovernmentsinChinagenerallyhaveobviousgapsandfinancial pressure.ThewidespreadimplementationofPPPmodelhasgreatpotentialand importantsignificance. AsanintegralpartoftheconstructionofsocialpublicservicefacilitiesinChina, spongecityconstructionisoneoftheareaswherethegovernmentandsocialcapital cooperate.Withthecontinuousimprovementofthestandardsofecological environmentgovernanceinChina,usingPPPmodetointroducesocialcapitalto participateintheconstructionofspongecityisthebestwaytosolvetheproblemsof lowqualityofpublicservice,lowefficiencyofsocialmanagementandinsufficient fundsforinfrastructureconstruction. ThemainpurposeofenterpriseinvestmentinspongecityPPPprojectistoobtain reasonableexpectedreturn.However,duetothediversityofriskfactorsofsponge cityPPPproject,aswellasthelong-termandcomplexityoftheproject,howto preventtheriskoftheprojectandaccuratelyanalyzeandjudgetheinvestmentvalue oftheprojectaretheprimaryconcernsofenterpriseswhenmakinginvestment decisionsforspongecityPPPprojectQuestion. Fromthestandpointandperspectiveofenterprises,thispaperfocusesonthe researchofriskandinvestmentdecisionofspongeCityPPPproject,takingthe spongeCityPPPprojectofGuangmingNewAreaofdeepwatergroupasanexample. Firstofall,itanalyzestheinvestmentincomeoftheinitialpredictionandtheactual operationoftheproject.Throughthecombinationofquantitativeandqualitative MBA学位论文作者：杨伟泽深水集团光明新区海绵城市PPP项目投资决策研究 III methods,itidentifiesandevaluatesthekeyriskfactorsthataffecttheinvestment returnofthespongeCityPPPprojectinGuangmingNewAreabinedwiththe actualsituationoftheprojectandtheprincipleofrisksharing,itpointsoutthemain riskfactorsthatenterprisesshouldfocuson.Secondly,byusingCAPMandWACC calculationmodel,thebenchmarkyieldlevelRofspongecityindustryiscalculated. Finally,usingMonteCarlosimulation,thepaperanalyzestheimpactofdifferentrisk factorsontheIRRofprojectinvestment,andfinallytheindustrybenchmarkIRR.By comparison,theboundaryconditionsofthefeasibilityofinvestmentprojectsare calculated,whichcanprovidereferenceforenterprisesintheprocessofinvestment decision-making,businessnegotiationwithgovernmentdepartmentsandproject operationmanagement. Keywords:SpongeCity；Projectrisk；Investmentanalysis；Investmentdecision MBA学位论文作者：杨伟泽深水集团光明新区海绵城市PPP项目投资决策研究 IV 目录 中文摘要......................................................................................................I 第一章绪论................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景........................................................................................................1 1.1.1社会背景................................................................................................1 1.1.2企业背景................................................................................................2 1.2研究目的、意义和内容................................................................................2 1.2.1研究目的................................................................................................2 1.2.2研究意义................................................................................................2 1.2.3研究内容................................................................................................3 1.3研究方法与工具............................................................................................4 1.3.1研究方法................................................................................................4 1.3.2研究工具................................................................................................5 第二章相关理论基础...............................................................................6 2.1PPP模式的概述............................................................................................6 2.1.1PPP概念................................................................................................6 2.1.2PPP运作模式........................................................................................7 2.2海绵城市概念................................................................................................8 2.2.1海绵城市概念........................................................................................8 2.2.2海绵城市项目市场状况......................................................................10 2.3PPP模式在海绵城市建设应用的理论基础..............................................12 2.3.1公共产品理论......................................................................................12 2.3.2委托代理理论......................................................................................12 第三章深水集团光明新区海绵城市PPP项目投资决策分析............13 3.1光明新区海绵城市PPP项目概况.............................................................13 3.1.1项目基本内容......................................................................................13 3.1.2合作期限..............................................................................................14 MBA学位论文作者：杨伟泽深水集团光明新区海绵城市PPP项目投资决策研究 V 3.1.3项目回报机制......................................................................................14 3.2项目初始投资条件及投资收益分析..........................................................15 3.3项目实际运营情况及投资收益对比..........................................................16 3.3.1实际运营及收益情况..........................................................................16 3.3.2主要差异及原因分析..........................................................................17 3.4光明新区海绵城市PPP项目风险分析.....................................................18 3.4.1项目风险识别....