随着中国经济持续稳定增长，电力作为国民经济发展的重要能源支持，需求 急剧增加。中国电力行业经过改革开放40年的发展，我国电力行业得到长足发 展，但仍然存在地区发展不平衡、市场化程度较低等问题。为深化电力体制改革， 推进电力交易市场建设，中国于2015年启动了新一轮电力体制改革。 为科学评估中国电力系统效率以及2015年新一轮电力体制改革对电力系统 生产运营的影响，本研究首先，考虑环境因素和服务质量对电力系统效率的影响， 构建了中国电力系统效率评价投入产出指标体系；然后，基于电力系统内部复杂 的网络结构，利用动态网络松弛测量模型，以改革前的2011年-2014年中国30 个省级行政区域的数据为样本，评估中国电力系统总体效率以及发电、输电、配 电三个环节的效率；最后，结合情景分析方法模拟改革前后以及不同改革政策组 合的效果，探究不同改革策略对电力系统政策以及各部门影响的差异。 研究表明：（1）评价电力系统效率时，环境因素和服务质量因素对于效率评 价结果影响显著，应该纳入投入产出指标体系；（2）动态网络SBM模型能够更 加客观地反映中国电力系统现状，发现中国电力系统效率存在地区不平衡以及各 部门效率不平衡现象，并且鉴于中国较为频繁地跨区输电现象，在评价省级电力 系统效率时，应该剥离跨区输电对效率评价的影响。（3）新一轮电力体制改革对 电力系统效率影响显著，一方面，新一轮电力体制改革对于中国电力系统整体效 率影响不大，但电网的效率随改革的深入呈现不同的变化趋势；最后，在配电侧 引入竞争，建立电力交易市场能够抵消因减产而带来的效率降低问题，但是竞争 程度效率值影响不大。本文的结果能够为政府进一步推进电力体制改革，确定电 网结构调整方向提供策略性政策建议。 关键词：电力系统，动态网络松弛测量模型，情景分析，电力体制改革 III ABSTRACT With China's sustained and rapid economic growth, the demand for electricity has increased dramatically. After 40 years of reform and opening up, China's power industry has grown from weak to strong. However, there were still problems such as unbalanced regional development and low degree of marketization. In order to deepen the reform of the distribution sector and promote the development of electricity trading market, China launched a new round of power system reform in 2015. In order to evaluate the efficiency of China's power system and the impact of the new round of power system reform in 2015 on the power system, this study considers the environment and service factors, The input-output index system of power system efficiency evaluation in China was constructed firstly; Secondly, taking the data from 2011 to 2014 as the sample, this study adopts a dynamic data envelopment analysis model with network structure based on a slack-based measure approach (DNSBM) to evaluate the efficiency of China’s power system and three divisions; Thirdly, to study on the impact of the reform on the performance of power system and their divisions of 30 provincial administrative region in China, it further employed scenario analysis to investigate the combined effects of different policies and to explore the differences of the impacts of the unbundling reform on power system and its divisions. The results indicated that: (1) When evaluating the efficiency of power system, environmental factors and service quality factors had a significant impact on the efficiency evaluation result, which should be included into the input-output index system; (2) Dynamic network SBM model could more objectively reflect the current situation of China’s power system, it was found that the efficiency of China's power system was unbalanced in different regions and different sectors and given China's more frequent interregional transmission phenomenon, when evaluating efficiency of power system at the provincial level, should be stripped interregional transmission effect on the efficiency evaluation. (3) In general, a new round of power system reform had no significant impact on the overall efficiency of China's power system, but the efficiency would increase gradually with time going on; the introduction of competition in the distribution sector and the establishment of electricity trading market may offset the efficiency reduction. KEY WORDS: Power system; DNSBM model; Scenario analysis; Policy reform V 目 录 摘要 ............................................................................................................................ I ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. III 第1章 绪论 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究现状 ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ...................................................................................................... 3 1.2 本文的主要工作及框架 ..................................................................................... 4 1.2.1 主要工作 ...................................................................................................... 4 1.2.2 文章结构 ...................................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 研究技术路线 .............................................................................................. 5 1.3 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 6 第2章 文献综述 .......................................................................................................... 9 2.1 DEA模型方法演进 ............................................................................................. 9 2.2 DEA模型在电力系统效率评价中的应用 ....................................................... 11 2.3 电力系统效率评价投入产出指标综述 ........................................................... 11 2.3.1 一般投入产出指标选择 ............................................................................ 11 2.3.2 环境指标选择 ............................................................................................ 13 2.3.3 服务质量指标选择 .................................................................................... 14 2.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 14 第3章 动态网络SBM模型及指标分析 ................................................................. 17 3.1 动态网络SBM模型 ......................................................................................... 17 3.1.1 DEA模型及其变式 .................................................................................... 17 3.1.2 参数设定 .................................................................................................... 18 3.1.3 生产可能集 ................................................................................................ 20 3.1.4 效率评估目标函数 .................................................................................... 21 3.1.5 电力系统效率评价应用 ............................................................................ 22 3.2 环境和服务质量指标分析 ............................................................................... 25 3.2.1环境和服务质量指标对电力系统综合效率的影响 ................................. 25 3.3 环境和服务质量指标对各部门动态效率的影响 ....................................... 27 3.3 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 28 第4章 新电改情景模拟及实证分析 ........................................................................ 29 4.1 新电改情景设置 ............................................................................................... 29 4.1.1新电改政策分析 ......................................................................................... 29 VI 4.1.2 情景设置 .................................................................................................... 29 4.2 投入产出指标选择及数据处理 ...............................................