自全面布局、大力推动工业化与信息化以来，我国经济持续增长，已经成为全球 第二大经济体。然而，当下，我们清醒地认识到我国经济发展总体上并未摆脱传统的 资源消耗模式，科技创新在经济发展中的作用尚未得到突显。而技术创新和产业结构 是可持续发展的核心。因此，置身于平衡经济发展与环境友好问题迭起的当下，强调 科技创新的重要地位，实现创新对产业转型升级的驱动作用，是平稳渡过经济高速增 长转向高质量发展的攻关期的核心思路和战略框架。 京津冀作为中国经济的最重要增长极之一，其发展的焦点离不开“环境问题”。 因此，研究该地区技术、产业与环境三者之间的关联关系就显得十分必要。本文在国 内外相关研究的基础上，从系统论视角出发，利用物理耦合概念构建技术创新-产业 结构-生态环境（TIE）系统三维耦合模型，旨在讨论三者之间的关系及互相推动向高 级协调阶段发展的基础上，利用2009-2016年数据，运用相关数理模型对京津冀地区 的技术创新、产业结构和生态环境状况和耦合关系进行测算和分析，并运用新陈代谢 GM（1,1）模型预测分析三者耦合发展的趋势。通过实证分析，本文得出结论： 第一，R&D经费来自政府的金额、产业结构高级化以及人均工业废水排放量分别 对技术创新子系统、产业结构子系统和生态环境子系统的贡献率最高。第二，京津冀 三地在TIE系统的综合水平发展优良等级关系明显，呈北京好于天津好于河北的状态， 且津冀两地与北京的差距过大，北京市TIE综合水平平均值为0.7058，天津综合平均 得分差北京0.2950，河北省综合平均水平距离北京平均差异更达0.4529。第三，在耦 合协调度测算模型中，北京市的TIE系统耦合协调度都已经达到优秀水平，天津市与 河北省目前都处于技术创新与产业结构滞后于生态环境的转型发展阶段，两地技术创 新对产业转型升级、生态环境的支持效用不够明显。最后，利用新陈代谢GM（1,1） 模型预测得知天津市的转型发展期将持续4年，在2021年进入协调发展阶段，且在 2024年耦合协调度达到0.9，而河北省到2023年还处于转型期。 关键词：京津冀；技术创新；产业结构；生态环境；耦合协调 III Abstract Sincethecomprehensivelayoutandvigorouspromotionofindustrializationand informatization,China'seconomyhascontinuedtogrowandhasbecomethesecondlargest economyintheworld.However,atpresent,wearesoberlyawarethatChina'seconomic developmenthasnotbrokenawayfromthetraditionalmodeofresourceconsumption,and theroleofscientificandtechnologicalinnovationineconomicdevelopmenthasnotbeen highlighted.Technologicalinnovationandindustrialstructurearethecoreofsustainable development.Therefore,itisthecoreideaandstrategicframeworktorideoutthetransition fromhigh-speedeconomicgrowthtohigh-qualitydevelopment. AsoneofthemostimportantgrowthpolesofChina'seconomy,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cannotdevelopwithout"solvingenvironmentalproblems".Therefore,itisnecessaryto studytherelationshipamongtechnology,industryandenvironmentinthisregion.Onthe basisofrelevantresearchesathomeandabroad,thispaperstartsfromtheperspectiveof systemtheory,constructsathree-dimensionalmodeloftechnologicalinnovation-industrial structure-ecologicalenvironmentbyusingphysicalcouplingconcepts,aimstodiscussthe relationshipbetweenthethreeandhowtheypromoteeachothertodeveloptotheadvanced coordinationstage.Basedonthedatafrom2009to2016,usingrelevantmathematical modelstocalculateandanalyzethelevelandcouplingrelationshipoftechnological innovation,industrialstructureandecologicalenvironmentintheBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Also,theGM(1,1)modelisusedtopredictandanalyzethedevelopmenttrendofthe couplingrelationshipbetweentechnology,industryandenvironment.Throughempirical analysis,theresultsshowthat: Thefirst,TheamountofR&Dfundingfromthegovernment,theadvancementof industrialstructureandpercapitaindustrialwastewaterdischargemadethegreatest contributiontothetechnologyinnovationsubsystem,theindustrialstructuresubsystem, andtheecologicalenvironmentsubsystemrespectively.Thesecond,thecomprehensivelevel oftheTIEsystemofBeijing-Tianjin-Hebeiwereinaclearlevelrelation,thatthelevelof BeijingwashigherthanthatofTianjin,andthelevelofTianjinwashigherthanthatof Hebei.Moreover,thegapbetweenTianjinandHebeiwasverylarge,withtheaveragescore differencebetweenTianjinandBeijingbeing0.2950andthatbetweenHebeiandBeijing was0.4529,whiletheaveragescoreofBeijingwas0.7058.Thethird,thedegreeofcoupling andcoordinationofTIEsysteminBeijinghadreachedexcellentlevels,whileTianjinand IV Hebeiwerebothinthetransformationdevelopmentstageoftechnologyinnovationand industrialstructurelaggingbehindecologicalenvironment.IndicatedthatinTianjinand Hebei,thesupportingeffectoftechnologyinnovationonindustrialtransformationand upgrading,ecologicalenvironmentimprovementwasnotobvious.Thelast,themetabolic GM(1,1)modelisusedtopredictthatthetransitionaldevelopmentperiodofTianjinwill lastfor4years,enterthecoordinateddevelopmentstagein2021,andthecoupling coordinationdegreewillreach0.9in2024.AndHebeiprovincewillstillbeintransitionby 2023. Keywords:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei；Technologyinnovation；Industrialstructure； Ecologicalenvironment；Couplingandcoordination V 目录 摘要.......................................................................................................................I Abstract........................................................................................................................III 第一章绪论...........................................................................................................-1- 1.1选题背景..........................................................................................................-1- 1.1.1可持续发展的现实需要........................................................................-1- 1.1.2国家及区域发展战略要求....................................................................-1- 1.2研究目的和意义..............................................................................................-2- 1.2.1研究目的................................................................................................-2- 1.2.2研究意义................................................................................................-2- 1.3理论基础与研究方法......................................................................................-3- 1.3.1理论基础................................................................................................-3- 1.3.2研究方法................................................................................................-4- 1.4研究内容及技术路线......................................................................................-5- 1.4.1研究内容................................................................................................-5- 1.4.1技术路线................................................................................................-5- 第二章核心概念与文献评述...............................................................................-7- 2.1技术创新及相关研究......................................................................................-7- 2.1.1技术创新...............................................................................................-7- 2.1.2技术创新研究前沿...............................................................................-7- 2.2产业结构及相关研究....................................................................................-9- 2.2.1产业结构...............................................................................................-9- 2.2.2产业结构研究前沿...............................................................................-9- 2.3生态环境及相关研究....................................................................................-12- 2.3.1生态环境..............................................................................................-12- 2.3.2生态环境研究前沿..............................................................................-12- 2.4耦合................................................................................................................-14- 2.4.1系统耦合..............................................................................................-14- 2.4.2耦合相关研究......................................................................................-14- 2.5文献述评........................................................................................................-14- 2.6本章小结....