进入 21 世纪以来，随着全球经济由―工业经济‖主导向―服务经济‖主导迅速转 变，物流业作为现代服务业的代表，呈现出大幅增长的势头，并逐渐在全国范围 掀起物流园——这一先进经营管理模式的发展热潮。港口物流园的发展，在充分 利用港口区位优势的同时，发挥了港口物流企业集聚化发展带来的规模效益，提 高整体物流服务效率，共享基础物流服务设施降低成本等作用，成为临港主导产 业、国际贸易及港口经济跨越式发展的驱动力。然而从目前港口物流园的运营情 况来看，大部分物流园缺乏建设前的合理规划和定位，存在盲目建设，与地区物 流需求不匹配等诸多问题，不仅无法发挥物流企业集群化的规模、成本、效率优 势，起到优化资源配置、缓解区域环境交通压力的作用，反而导致物流资源利用 不平衡、交通压力的加剧，严重影响了我国物流业现代化的发展进程，成为制约 经济发展的瓶颈。 针对这些问题，本文从保障港口物流园建设合理规划、顺利建设，提高其投 资成功率，减少盲目投资的角度出发，深入研究了进行港口物流园建设必要性分 析、规划方案设计和可行性评价的理论、方法、内容及实践。文章首先详细介绍 进行港口物流园建设可行性研究过程中需使用到的理论和方法，包括产业集群理 论、物流园规划理论及投资收益分析法等，并对目前港口物流园建设可行性方面 的研究进行总结；在此基础上将港口物流园建设可行性研究过程分为三个阶段， 港口物流园建设必要性分析、规划方案设计和可行性评价，并结合 A 港口浆纸物 流园建设可行性研究的案例来进行详细研究。第一阶段对港口物流园建设必要性 分析是基础环节，通过调研临港主导产业布局、物流需求及物流业发展现状，发 现主导产业及物流业的问题和发展方向，进而结合产业集群理论对物流市场进行 预测分析，并用 SWOT 分析法比较内外部影响因素得出物流园建设是否必要的结 论；第二阶段是对港口物流园建设规划方案的设计，主要结合物流园规划理论， 在第一阶段分析基础上进行规划设计，重点涵盖物流园定位、运营模式、发展建 设规划、具体选址和用地规划等内容；最后主要使用投资收益分析法，分析并评 价港口物流园建设的经济可行性，同时考虑项目中各种风险及政策、技术、环境 等影响因素，综合评价港口物流园建设是否可行，并得出本文的研究结论，同时 针对我国港口物流园发展现存的问题，提出相关建议，以期从理论及实践上为其 他港口开展物流园建设可行性研究提供参考，保障物流园建设、投资合理科学。 关键词，港口物流园；可行性研究；产业集群；建设规划II Abstract Entering the 21 st century, the dominating industry of the global economy is changing fro m industria l economy to service econo my. As the leading force of modern service ind ustry, logistics industry is showing a significant growth mome ntum, and gradually set off the develop ment boom of logis tics park, whic h is the advanced mana ge ment mode of logistics. During the develop ment of port lo gistics park, it makes full use of the location advanta ge of port, and uses its scale bene fits developed by port logistics enterprise agglo meratio n, improves effic iency of lo gistics services, and shares infrastructure to reduce costs, therefore becomes the driving power of the deve lopme nt of the port leading ind ustry and internationa l trade. However, as observed fro m the operation cond itions o f the c urrent port lo gistics parks, most of the m lack reasonable pla nning and positio ning before construction, blind construction, do not match with the regiona l lo gistics dema nd and many other proble ms have weakened the scale advantage of the Logistics Parks. They can’t optimize the allocatio n of resources, save the cost of socia l logistics, ease traffic pressure, instead, on the contrary, those proble ms increases. This s ituatio n serio usly a ffected the deve lopme nt of modernization o f China's logistics industry and econo my growth. To tackle with these proble ms, this artic le ma inly a ims at guarantee the planning and construction o f port logis tics park, increase the success rate of investment, reduce blind investment, and makes a thorough stud y on port logistics park necessity analys is, deve lopme nt pla nning and design, and feas ibility eva luation, and its theory, method, and practice. This essay first introduces the theories and methods used during this study, inc luding ind ustrial c luster theory ,to explain the influence of logistics park’s healthy develop ment o n regiona l econo my a nd the necess ity o f logistics park construction; and logistics park planning theory, lo gistics park feas ibility study, et. On the basis of this theories, divide the whole feasib ility study into three ma in stages : port logistics park construction necessity ana lys is, its p lanning and design, and feasib ility e valuation. For each state, use the case of p ulp and paper lo gistics park on A port to carry out the study. Thro ugh these three stages analys is, at last, give a comprehe ns ive eva luation of this port lo gistics park constructio n project, and come to the conc lus io n of this essay. With this result, aim at solving the existing proble ms in the deve lopme nt of China’s port logistics park, this essay put forward a few releva ntIII suggestions, provid ing a theory and practice reference for the pla nning of s imilar port Logistics Park and its feasib ility stud y, to ensure the construction and investment of logistics park to be more reasonable and bene fitia l. Key words : Port Logistics Park; Feasibility study; Ind ustrial Cluster; Construction Planning;IV 目 录 摘要........................................................................................................................................I Abstract .................................................................................................................................... II 插图索引.................................................................................................................................VI 附表索引...............................................................................................................................VII 第 1 章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 主要研究内容 ........................................................................................................... 2 1.3 研究思路 ................................................................................................................... 3 第 2 章 理论基础及文献综述..................................................................................................4 2.1 产业集群理论 .......................................................................................................... 4 2.2 物流园规划理论 ..................................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 物流预测方法 .............................................................................................. 5 2.2.2 物流园规模确定方法 ................................................................................. 7 2.2.3 物流园设计原理 ......................................................................................... 7 2.3 投资收益分析方法 ................................................................................................. 8 2.4 港口物流园建设可行性研究综述 ....................................................................... 9 2.4.1 港口物流园发展现状 ................................................................................. 9 2.4.2 可行性研究综述 ....................................................................................... 12 2.4.3 文献评述 .................................................................................................... 13 第 3 章 基于产业集群理论的港口物流园建设必要性分析................................................14 3.1 物流园建设必要性分析过程及内容 ................................................................. 14 3.2 A 港口浆纸产业及物流业现状调研 ............................................................... 14 3.2.1 港口浆纸产业简介 ................................................................................... 14 3.2.2 港口物流业及物流基础现状 .................................................................. 16 3.3 A 港口物流需求预测 ......................................................................................... 18 3.3.1 基于时间序列法的物流需求预测 ......................................................... 19 3.3.2 市场前景预测 ............................................................................................ 20 3.3.3 基于产业集群理论的物流市场分析 ..................................................... 22 3.4 A 港口浆纸物流园建设项目 SWOT 分析 ..................................................... 23 3.4.1 优势 ............................................................................................................. 23V 3.4.2 劣势 ............................................................................................................. 24 3.4.3 机遇 ............................................................................................................. 25 3.4.4 威胁 ............................................................................................................. 25 第 4 章 基于物流园规划理论的港口物流园建设方案设计................................................26 4.1 物流园建设项目规划方案内容 .......................................................................... 26 4.2 A 港口浆纸物流园建设项目规划方案设计 .................................................. 27 4.2.1 物流园定位及运营模式 .......................................................................... 27 4.2.2 物流园发展规划及建设内容 .................................................................. 29 4.2.3 基于物流园规划理论的选址及用地规划 ............................................ 31 第 5 章 基于投资收益分析的港口物流园建设可行性评价................................................33 5.1 物流园建设可行性评价内容 .............................................................................. 33 5.2 A 港口浆纸物流园建设项目投资收益分析及评价 ..................................... 34 5.2.1 投资估算 .................................................................................................... 34 5.2.2 资金筹措估算 ............................................................................................ 37 5.2.3 运营收益估算 ............................................................................................ 37 5.2.4 运营总成本估算 ....................................................................................... 38 5.2.5 企业经济效益分析 ................................................................................... 39 5.2.6 国民经济效益、社会效益分析及评价 ................................................. 40 5.3 A 港口浆纸物流园建设项目风险分析及管理 ............................................. 42 5.3.1 风险分析 .................................................................................................... 42 5.3.2 财务敏感性分析 ....................................................................................... 42 5.3.3 风险防范措施 ............................................................................................ 43 5.4 A 港口浆纸物流园建设项目政策、技术、环境影响评价 ........................ 44 5.4.1 政策可行性 ................................................................................................ 44 5.4.2 技术和设备可行性 ................................................................................... 44 5.4.3 环境影响评价 ............................................................................................ 44 结 论.....................................................................................................................................46