I 摘要 S216 线察汗淖至敖勒召其镇公路建设经济可行性研究 在公路工程建设项目中，经济可行性评价的目的是根据项目所在地区的经济发展规 划， 结合交通量预测和工程建设规模等研究情况，计算项目的费用和效益，对拟建项 目的经济合理性、财务可行性做出评价，为建设方案的比选、决策提供科学依据，是政 府审批或核准项目的重要评判标准。本报告以 S216 察汗淖至敖勒召其镇公路工程为研 究对象，对其经济可行性进行了研究。 首先，从项目的建设背景出发，阐述了公路建设的意义、国内外研究现状及研究内 容；其次，对工程影响区的经济和交通运输现状及发展趋势进行了分析；再次，依据 2008 年的 OD 调查数据，利用“四阶段法”预测了特征年该公路远景交通量，同时对其进行通 行能力分析和服务水平分析，以确定公路建设需要采用的技术标准。根据此标准，综合 考虑该公路途经区域的自然地理条件、需要的筑路材料和是否存在文物古迹等方面，初 步拟定备选的布线方案。最后，报告对项目进行了投资估算和资金筹措分析，并对两套 方案进行了国民经济评价和财务评价，以论证本项目在经济上的可行性。 本报告对于指导 S216 线察汗淖至敖勒召其镇公路工程的建设有重要意义，对于道 路建设工程的经济可行性研究具有一定的参考价值。 关键词， 公路工程，交通量预测，国民经济评价，财务评价Abstract III Abstract The economic feasibility study of Highway construction of S216 between Chahannao and Aolezhaoqi In project of highway construction , Economic feasibility evaluation purposes is according to the economic development plan of the project area, Calculated the costs and benefits of the project, evaluating the economic rationality and the financial viability of the proposed project, Providing a scientific basis for selection of building programs , it Is an Important criteria for government approval or approval of the project. Firstly, the article starts from the project's construction background to explain the significance of construction works, research status and research contents; Secondly, the article have done a lot of work on the affected area's economy and transportation status analysis and trends forecast. Again, based on the OD Survey data of 2008, use the four-stage method to predict the characteristics of the annual traffic of the highway Vision, analysis its capacity and service level to determine the technical standards of highway construction needs. Determine the Technical standards of highway construction. According to this standard, considering the natural and geographical conditions of the area of the highway via road construction materials needed and the existence of cultural relics, tentatively set alternative wiring scheme. Finally, the article estimate the investment of the project and analysis fund raising, And do a lot of work on national economic evaluation and financial evaluation for two programs to demonstrate the feasibility of the project in the economic. This paper has important guidance of the the S216 highway engineering construction between Chahannao and Aolezhaoqi, and has certain reference value of feasibility study for the road construction project. Keywords: Highway Engineering; Traffic Forecasts; National Economic Evaluation; Financial Evaluation目录 V 目 录 摘要......................................................................................................................I Abstract ............................................................................................................... III 第 1 章 绪论......................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景及意义 .................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 ........................................................................................ 1 1.2.1 国外研究现状 .................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 国内研究现状 .................................................................................... 3 1.3 研究思路和内容 ........................................................................................ 4 第 2 章 鄂尔多斯市经济和交通运输现状及发展趋势分析 .........................7 2.1 鄂尔多斯市社会经济概况........................................................................ 7 2.1.1 鄂尔多斯市总体社会经济现状 ........................................................ 7 2.1.1.1 人口及面积 ................................................................................. 7 2.1.1.2 主要自然资源 ............................................................................. 7 2.1.1.3 地区经济发展特点 ..................................................................... 8 2.1.2 各项目影响区域社会经济概况 ........................................................ 9 2.1.2.1 鄂托克旗 ..................................................................................... 9 2.1.2.2 鄂托克前旗 ................................................................................. 9 2.1.2.3 乌审旗 ....................................................................................... 10 2.1.2.4 东胜区 ....................................................................................... 11 2.1.2.5 伊金霍洛旗 ............................................................................... 12 2.1.2.6 临河区 ....................................................................................... 12吉林大学硕士学位报告 VI 2.1.2.7 磴口县 ....................................................................................... 13 2.1.2.8 杭锦旗 ....................................................................................... 14 2.1.2.9 乌海市 ....................................................................................... 14 2.1.2.10 阿拉善左旗 ............................................................................. 15 2.1.2.11 陕西省靖边 ............................................................................. 16 2.1.2.12 榆林地区 ................................................................................. 16 2.2 各项目影响区域社会经济发展预测...................................................... 17 2.3 项目影响区域交通运输现状及发展...................................................... 18 2.3.1 交通运输现状 .................................................................................. 18 2.3.1.1 运输网 ....................................................................................... 18 2.3.1.2 拟建项目与其他交通衔接情况 ............................................... 20 2.3.1.3 现有省道 216 线察汗淖至敖勒召其镇段公路使用状况....... 20 2.3.2 交通运输发展趋势 .......................................................................... 21 2.3.2.1 公路网规划 ............................................................................... 21 2.3.2.2 其他相关运输方式 ................................................................... 21 第 3 章 S216 线察汗淖至敖勒召其镇公路交通流预测与分析..................23 3.1 交通调查 .................................................................................................. 23 3.1.1 调查目的和方法 .............................................................................. 23 3.1.2 调查内容和交通小区划分 .............................................................. 23 3.1.3 交通量观测结果 .............................................................................. 24 3.1.4 车辆运输效率指标分析 .................................................................. 25 3.2 交通量预测 .............................................................................................. 25目录 VII 3.2.1 预测思路与方法 .............................................................................. 25 3.2.1.1 预测思路 ................................................................................... 25 3.2.1.2 预测的方法 ............................................................................... 26 3.2.1.3 预测年限 ................................................................................... 27 3.2.1.4 远景交通量构成 ....................................................................... 27 3.2.2 产生吸引交通量预测 ...................................................................... 27 3.2.2.1 弹性系数分析 ........................................................................... 27 3.2.2.2 产生吸引交通量预测公式 ....................................................... 27 3.2.3 分布交通量预测 .............................................................................. 28 3.2.4 诱增型交通量 .................................................................................. 29 3.2.5 转移交通量预测 .............................................................................. 30 3.2.6 交通量分布 ...................................................................................... 30 3.2.7 交通量分配 ...................................................................................... 30 3.2.8 预测结果 .......................................................................................... 31 3.3 道路通行能力和服务水平分析.............................................................. 32 3.3.1 车道数分析 ...................................................................................... 32 3.3.2 通行能力计算 .................................................................................. 32 3.3.3 服务水平分析 .................................................................................. 32 3.4 技术标准采用 .......................................................................................... 33 第 4 章 S216 线察汗淖至敖勒召其镇公路备选方案的拟定......................35 4.1 建设条件 .................................................................................................. 35 4.1.1 区域自然条件概述 .......................................................................... 35吉林大学硕士学位报告 VIII 4.1.1.1 地理位置 ................................................................................... 35 4.1.1.2 地形地貌 ................................................................................... 35 4.1.1.3 沿线气候概况 ........................................................................... 35 4.1.1.4 河流水文 ................................................................................... 36 4.1.1.5 水文地质条件 ........................................................................... 36 4.1.1.6 地震 ........................................................................................... 36 4.1.1.7 地质条件 ................................................................................... 36 4.1.2 筑路材料 .......................................................................................... 38 4.1.2.1 工程用水及用电 ....................................................................... 38 4.1.2.2 主要材料来源及供应地 ........................................................... 38 4.1.2.3 路基填料 ................................................................................... 38 4.1.3 文物 .................................................................................................. 38 4.2 布线方案设计 .......................................................................................... 39 4.2.1 布线原则 .......................................................................................... 39 4.2.2 布线方案总体研究 .......................................................................... 39 4.2.2.1 省道 216 线规划介绍 ............................................................... 39 4.2.2.2 路线起终点 ............................................................................... 40 4.2.2.3 具体布线方案设计 ................................................................... 41 第 5 章 S216 线察汗淖至敖勒召其镇公路布线方案经济评价..................47 5.1 概述 .......................................................................................................... 47 5.2 投资估算和资金筹措 .............................................................................. 47 5.2.1 费用标准 .......................................................................................... 47目录 IX 5.2.2 投资估算 .......................................................................................... 48 5.2.3 其他说明 .......................................................................................... 48 5.2.4 建设年限 .......................................................................................... 48 5.2.5 资金筹措 .......................................................................................... 48 5.3 国民经济评价 .......................................................................................... 49 5.3.1 主要参数的选取 .............................................................................. 49 5.3.2 经济费用的调整和计算 .................................................................. 50 5.3.3 国民经济效益计算 .......................................................................... 53 5.3.4 国民经济评价指标及计算 .............................................................. 58 5.3.5 敏感性分析 ...................................................................................... 58 5.4 财务评价 .................................................................................................. 60 5.4.1 项目建设及运营期财务费用调整 .................................................. 60 5.4.1.1 工程建设财务费用调整 ........................................................... 60 5.4.1.2 养护、大修及管理费用 ........................................................... 60 5.4.2 收费标准的确定及收费收入的计算 .............................................. 60 5.4.3 项目盈利能力分析 .......................................................................... 61 5.4.4 税金计算 .......................................................................................... 61 5.4.5 项目清偿能力分析 .......................................................................... 61 5.4.6 财务敏感性分析 .............................................................................. 62 5.4.7 财务评价结果 .................................................................................. 63 5.5 评价结论 .................................................................................................. 63 第 6 章 结论与展望........................................................................................65吉林大学硕士学位报告 X 6.1 结论 .......................................................................................................... 65 6.2 展望 .......................................................................................................... 66