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福建电信在线计费系统项目可行性研究报告DOC

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学科、专业 : 项目管理 研 究 方 向: 项目实施 作 者: 孙砚 指 导 教 师: 洪小娟 题 目:福建电信在线计费系统项目可行性研究 英 文 题 目: Feasibility study about Fujian Telecom Online Charging support System project 主 题 词:在线计费系统;项目前期管理;可行性研究 Keywords: Billing System;Pre-project management;Feasibility Study 南京邮电大学工程硕士研究生学位报告 摘要 I 摘要 可行性研究(Feasibility Study)又称为可行性分析(Feasibility Analysis),是指 对拟建项目通过技术经济的分析,以研究用最小的投入获得最佳效果的科学方法。具体地说, 可行性研究是通过对项目相关因素的分析、鉴别和评价、估算,寻找各因素间内在、本质和 必然的联系及其特定规律,以确定各因素对投资决策及其未来效果的影响。福建电信在线计 费系统(以下简称 OCS)项目主要解决目前福建电信在 3G 业务发展、市场推广、3G 业务高效 支撑方面一些迫切需要解决的问题。 本文以项目管理启动阶段的理论为指导,以中国电信福建分公司在线计费系统项目为研 究对象,对该项目的技术可行性、财务可行性和风险因素及对策进行了研究。通过对在线计 费系统 OCS 项目的技术可行性分析,得出了该项目的设备清单,制定了合理可靠的技术方案, 证明该项目在技术上完全可行。在财务可行性分析中,对项目的净现值、内部收益率、投资 回收期等财务指标进行了详细的分析,得出了项目在财务上可行。在风险控制部分,通过运 用检查表的方法识别了该项目存在的风险因素,并按不同风险发生的概率对风险因素进行了 排序,并提出了相应的风险防范措施。研究结果表明,福建电信在线计费系统 OCS 项目技术 成熟、经济可行、风险可控,通过实施 OCS 项目,对中国电信福建省分公司的信息化建设提 供有力支撑,为今后电信业务的进一步发展提供有力保障。 关键词:OCS、在线计费系统、项目前期管理、可行性研究、可行性分析; 南京邮电大学工程硕士研究生学位报告 摘要 I ABSTRACT Feasibility study also known as feasibility analysis. It is a scientific method that focuses on using minimal effort to obtain the best results by analyzing the the proposed project technical and economic. Specifically,feasibility study looks for the inner, essential and necessary linkages and their specific rules by the analysis of project-related factors, identification and evaluation, estimation. Thus, it can determine how much influence the various factors have on investment decisions and their future effects, Fujian Telecom OCS project focuses on solving some urgent problems such as 3G business development, marketing, efficient support for 3G services and so on. Guided by the theory of the start-up phase of project management, focusing on study of Fujian branch of China Telecom OCS this paper has a profound research on technical feasibility, financial viability, risk factors, and the corresponding countermeasures. In this paper, the author develops a list of equipment items by analysis of technical feasibility of On Line Charge System (OCS) and forms reasonable and reliable technical solutions. and then proves that the project is entirely technically feasible .On the financial feasibility analysis, the author proves that the project is financially feasible by research on net present value of the project, Internal rate of return, payback period and other financial indicators. In the aspects of risk control, the author puts forward to the corresponding risk prevention measures after identifying the existence of risk factors by the approach of checking list and at the same time sorting different risk factors based on the probability of occurrence. The results show that Fujian branch of China Telecom OCS project is technically mature, economically viable, the risk is controlled. By implementing the OCS project, it can provide strong support to the information technology Fujian branch of China Telecom. Further more, it can provide effective protection for the further development of future telecommunications services. KEY WORDS:OCS;Billing System;Pre-project management;Feasibility Study 南京邮电大学工程硕士研究生学位报告 目录 I 目 录 第 1 章 绪论 ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 项目背景...............................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 福建电信业务系统现状...............................................................................................2 1.1.2 业务需求分析与容量预测...........................................................................................4 1.2 研究目的...............................................................................................................................6 1.3 本文主要内容和框架...........................................................................................................7 第 2 章 项目可行性研究的理论基础 ........................................................................................... 8 2.1 可行性研究的依据...............................................................................................................8 2.2 可行性研究的一般要求.......................................................................................................8 2.3 可行性研究的主要内容.......................................................................................................9 第 3 章 福建电信在线计费系统项目技术可行性分析 ............................................................. 12 3.1 福建电信在线计费系统本期建设目标........................................................................12 3.2 福建电信在线计费系统演进路径规划........................................................................12 3.3 福建电信在线计费系统总体部署模式........................................................................13 3.4 福建电信在线计费系统本期系统方案........................................................................13 3.4.1 福建电信在线计费系统主设备建设方案.............................................................15 3.4.2 网络带宽估算.........................................................................................................18 3.4.3 网络配套改造方案.................................................................................................20 3.4.4 支撑系统配套改造方案.........................................................................................22 3.5 承载方案 .......................................................................................................................23 3.6 容灾方案 .......................................................................................................................24 3.6.1 容灾功能要求............................................................................................................24 3.6.2 容灾方案架构............................................................................................................25 3.6.3 容灾系统建设思路.....................................................................................................25 3.6.4 容灾系统的部署方案.................................................................................................25 3.7 网络管理方案................................................................................................................27 3.8 设备选项建议................................................................................................................27 3.8.1 服务器选型.............................................................................................................27 3.8.2 数据库选型.............................................................................................................28 3.9 工程实施 .......................................................................................................................29 3.9.1 机房规划 ...................................................................................................................30 3.9.2 供电及接地................................................................................................................30 3.9.3 防震加固 ...................................................................................................................31 3.9.4 噪声、电磁干扰、静电干扰....................................................................................31 3.9.5 节能措施 ...................................................................................................................31 3.10 增员和培训 ...................................................................................................................33 3.10.1 编制说明..................................................................................................................33 3.10.2 人员估算..................................................................................................................33 3.10.3 人员培训 ..................................................................................................................33 3.11 技术可行性分析结论.......................................................................................................33 第 4 章 福建电信在线计费系统财务可行性分析 ....................................................................... 34 4.1 财务可行性内容.................................................................................................................34 南京邮电大学工程硕士研究生学位报告 目录 II 4.1.1 项目投资现金流量预测.............................................................................................34 4.1.2 投资方案财务评价.....................................................................................................34 4.1.3 融资方案财务评价.....................................................................................................35 4.2 投资估算及资金筹措.........................................................................................................35 4.2.1 投资估算 ....................................................................................................................35 4.2.2 资金筹措 ....................................................................................................................36 4.3 财务评价.............................................................................................................................37 4.3.1 财务评价内容.............................................................................................................37 4.3.2 财务评价基础数据的测算.........................................................................................37 4.3.3 年总成本测算.............................................................................................................38 4.3.4 财务现金流量及净现值预测.....................................................................................39 4.3.5 财务指标分析.............................................................................................................42 4.4 财务可行性分析结论.........................................................................................................43 第 5 章 福建电信在线计费系统项目风险分析 ........................................................................... 44 5.1 项目风险管理理论.............................................................................................................44 5.1.1 风险管理的发展.........................................................................................................44 5.1.2 风险管理的定义.........................................................................................................44 5.1.3 项目风险的分类.........................................................................................................44 5.1.4 风险管理过程及方法.................................................................................................45 5.1.5 风险管理方法的选择.................................................................................................47 5.2 风险识别.............................................................................................................................47 5.2.1 检查表法 ....................................................................................................................47 5.2.2 福建电信在线计费系统项目风险识别....................................................................48 5.3 风险分析.............................................................................................................................50 5.3.1 主观评分法.................................................................................................................50 5.3.2 福建电信在线计费系统项目主观评分分析............................................................50 5.4 风险应对.............................................................................................................................51 5.4.1 启动阶段的人员风险.................................................................................................52 5.4.2 计划阶段的进度风险.................................................................................................52 5.4.3 执行阶段的技术风险.................................................................................................52 5.4.4 计划阶段的财务风险.................................................................................................52 5.5 风险监控.............................................................................................................................53 5.6 风险分析结论.....................................................................................................................53 第 6 章 结论 ................................................................................................................................. 55 致谢 ...................................................................................................................................... 56