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株洲上月塘棚户区改造项目可行性研究报告DOC

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项目可行性研究是项目决策的前提。棚户区改造项目可行性研究对于政 府惠民工程的落实、回应项目利益相关者的合理关切都有着十分重要的意 义。文章以株洲上月塘棚户区改造项目为研究对象,运用理论分析与个案研 究相结合,定性与定量研究相结合等方法,主要从建设必要性、经济可行性 与社会风险可控性等三个方面对该项目进行了研究。文章描述了拟改造项目 所在地居民生活条件的落后现状,认为无论是从改善居民生活条件角度看, 还是从提升株洲城市品位,构建和谐株洲角度看,该项目建设是完全必要的。 文章从业主的角度运用相应的财务评价方法对项目的盈利能力和财务生存 能力进行了分析。该项目预计实现利润 6394 万元,项目财务内部收益率 6.07%,静态投资回收期(含建设期)11.22 年;项目具有一定的盈利能力 而且财务生存能力较强,因此,项目在经济上是可行的。文章最后,对上月 塘棚户区改造项目的社会稳定风险进行了全面分析。通过发放调查问卷、实 地走访、专家座谈等方式对该项目政策规划和审批核准程序,土地房屋征收 补偿,技术经济、生态环境影响、项目管理、经济社会影响、安全卫生、媒 体舆情等方面的风险进行了评估,得出该项目的社会稳定风险等级为 C 级, 即为低风险。因此,该项目在社会稳定风险分析上是可行的。 关键词: 株洲市,上月塘棚户区,经济可行性,社会稳定风险II ABSTRACT Project feasibility study is the precondition of project decisions. Shantytown renovation project feasibility study for the government to improve people's living quality engineering implementation, responding to the reasonable concerns of project stakeholders all have important significance. Article in Zhuzhou SYT shantytown renovation project as the research object, using theoretical analysis and case study, the combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods of combining, mainly from the construction necessity, the economic feasibility and social risk control and so on three aspects has carried on the research to the project. Article describing the backward situation of residents' living conditions in the proposed project, whether from the point of view to improve the residents living conditions or from the ascending grade of Zhuzhou , the construction of a harmonious Zhuzhou perspective, the project construction is necessary. The article from the perspective of the owner uses the corresponding financial evaluation methods to analyze the profitability and financial viability of the project. The project is expected to achieve the profit of 63.94 million .the project financial internal rate of return is 6.07% and the static payback period of investment (including construction) is 11.22 years. Project has a certain profitability and strong financial viability. Therefore, the project is feasible in economy. Finally, the author has carried on the thorough analysis of social stability risk of the moon pool renovation project. Through questionnaires, field visits, expert discussion on the project policy planning and approval procedures of examination and approval, house acquisition of land compensation, technical and economic, ecological environment impact, project management, economic and social effect, safety and health, the respect such as media public opinion to evaluate the risk, it is concluded that the project's social stability risk rating is class C, which is the low risk. Therefore, the project is feasible on social stability risk analysis. Keywords: Zhuzhou, SYT shantytown, economic feasibility, social stability riskIII 目 录 摘要....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................... II 目 录............................................................................................................................... III 第一章 绪论................................................................................................................... 1 1. 1 研究背景及研究意义....................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................................................................... 2 1. 2 国内外研究现状............................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 国外研究现状........................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状.......................................................................................... 5 1.2.3 研究述评................................................................................................... 8 1. 3 研究思路与研究方法....................................................................................... 9 第二章 株洲上月塘棚户区改造项目概况与建设必要性分析..................................11 2. 1 项目概况及背景分析......................................................................................11 2.1.1 棚户区概述..............................................................................................11 2.1.2 项目概况..................................................................................................11 2.1.3 项目背景分析......................................................................................... 13 2. 2 拟改造城市棚户区现状情况......................................................................... 16 2. 3 项目建设的必要性......................................................................................... 17 第三章 株洲上月塘棚户区改造项目经济可行性分析............................................. 18 3. 1 项目投资估算与资金筹措............................................................................. 18 3.1.1 估算总投资............................................................................................. 18 3.1.2 资金筹措及建设投资分年度投资计划................................................. 19 3. 2 财务评价......................................................................................................... 19 3.2.1 财务分析依据......................................................................................... 19 3.2.2 收入与成本费用估算............................................................................. 20 3.2.3 财务效益分析......................................................................................... 21 3. 3 结论................................................................................................................. 22 第四章 株洲上月塘棚户区改造项目社会稳定风险分析........................................... 26 4. 1 社会稳定风险分析的目的、依据和风险等级............................................. 26 4. 2 上月塘棚户区改造项目社会稳定风险评估过程和内容............................. 26IV 4.2.1 社会稳定风险评估过程......................................................................... 26 4.2.2 风险调查................................................................................................. 27 4.2.3 风险识别和估计..................................................................................... 34 4.2.4 风险防范和化解措施............................................................................. 45 4. 3 风险分析结论................................................................................................. 50 第五章 结论与建议..................................................................................................... 53 5. 1 结论................................................................................................................. 53 5. 2 建议................................................................................................................... 53