近年来，随着我国经济水平的发展，在宏观政策调控及金融市场推助等因素 影响下，我国房地产行业得到了迅猛的发展。而杭州作为浙江的省会城市，在承 办了 G20 的峰会后，房价一路走高。尽管在 2016 年 11 月，2017 年 3 月人民银 行在短时间内两次调整个人住房贷款政策，房价仍呈现一路走高趋势，房市成交 状况火爆。 在当前我国经济增速整体放缓的大环境下，一些城市在近阶段的购房中出现 一些机构实施首付款场外配资的活动，主要包括众筹以及小额贷款公司、P2P 平 台、房产中介等。购房活动首付款的场外配资在住房信贷政策的原有基础上进行 突破，使得房地产的经济再次被激发，实现了零首付购房的情况，同时也带来了 更多的风险因素。近期的 P2P 平台暴雷事件更是加剧了风险的不可控性，房地产 市场未来的发展趋势也变得更加难以控制。 本篇论文的研究对象是在Ｊ银行杭州分行进行办理的个人住房贷款具体业 务，并以该业务的具体的办理特征进行分析和研究，进一步深入全面分析研究该 行办理个人住房贷款业务的业务数据、制度流程以及岗位建设等，并最终将该行 办理个人住房业务的风险因素剖析出来。本文在整个分析研究的过程中主要采用 了文献分析法、案例分析法、比较分析法以及统计分析法等多种研究方法和理论。 也就是对该银行的个人住房贷款业务制度建设中的风险因素进行分析和把控，进 行合理化建议和完善策略。进而实现该银行的个人住房抵押贷款业务风险管理综 合能力的有效提高。 关键词，个人住房抵押贷款，风险管理，防范措施 论文类型，应用研究浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 个人住房贷款风险影响因素及管理研究 II RESEARCH ON RISK FACTORS AND MANAGEMENT OF PERSONAL HOUSING LOAN - BASED ON BANK J HANGZHOU BRANCH ABSTRACT In recent years, with the development of China's economic level, the real estate industry in China has developed rapidly under the influence of macro-policy regulation and financial market. Hangzhou, as the capital city of Zhejiang, has been on the high side after hosting the G20 summit. Although in November 2016 and March 2017, the People's Bank of China adjusted the personal housing loan policy twice in a short period of time, house prices still showed a trend of rising, and the housing market was in hot trade. In the current environment of the overall slowdown in China's economic growth, some hot cities recently exposed real estate intermediaries, P2P platform, crowdsourcing and small loan companies engaged in home purchase down payment over-the-counter allocation phenomenon. The essence of OTC capital allocation is to break through the existing housing credit policy in a disguised form, enlarge the leverage of real estate finance, and even cause the zero down payment situation, thus burying potential risks. Recent P2P platform thunderstorms have exacerbated the risk of uncontrollable, the future development trend of the real estate market has become more complex and changeable. The research object of this thesis is the specific business of personal housing loan handled by Bank J Hangzhou Branch, and the analysis and research of the specific processing characteristics of the business. Further in-depth analysis of the bank's personal housing loan business business data, institutional processes and job construction, etc., and finally the bank to handle the risk factors of personal housing business analysis. In the whole process of analysis and research, this paper mainly uses various research methods and theories such as literature analysis, case analysis, comparative analysis, and statistical analysis. That is, the risk factors in the construction of the bank's personal housing loan business system are analyzed and controlled, and rationalization suggestions and improvement strategies are made. Then the bank's personal housing mortgage business risk management ability to effectively improve. KEY WORDS:personal housing mortgage loan; risk management; preventive measures TYPE OF THESIS:Application research浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 个人住房贷款风险影响因素及管理研究 III 目 录 1 绪论...........................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景...............................................................................................................1 1.2 研究意义...............................................................................................................2 1.3 国内外研究现状....................................................................................................3 1.3.1 国内研究现状..............................................................................................3 1.3.2 国外研究现状..............................................................................................4 1.4 研究内容及方法...................................................................................................6 1.4.1 研究的主要内容..........................................................................................6 1.4.2 研究方法......................................................................................................6 1.5 论文创新之处与不足...........................................................................................6 1.5.1 论文创新之处...............................................................................................6 1.5.2 论文的不足...................................................................................................7 2 个人住房抵押贷款风险控制相关理论...................................................8 2.1 商业银行风险控制概述.......................................................................................8 2.1.1 风险与商业银行风险...................................................................................8 2.1.2 个人住房抵押贷款风险分类.......................................................................9 2.1.3 个人住房抵押贷款风险特征.....................................................................10 2.2 个人住房抵押贷款主要风险理论.....................................................................10 2.3 我国商业银行风险管理.....................................................................................12 3 商业银行个人住房贷款发展及风险管理现状....................................15 3.1 商业银行个人住房贷款业务发展特点.............................................................15 3.2 商业银行个人住房贷款信用风险防范存在的阻碍.........................................17 3.3 J 银行杭州分行个贷管理体制.........................................................................20 4J 行个人住房贷款风险影响因素分析...................................................22 4.1 杭州区域经济与房地产市场概况.....................................................................22 4.2 J 银行 X 支行个人住房贷款业务风险来源分析.............................................23 4.2.1 借款人风险................................................................................................23 4.2.2 银行存在的管理风险.................................................................................24 4.2.3 开发商风险................................................................................................25 4.2.4 中介机构风险.............................................................................................26 4.3J 行 X 支行个人住房贷款信用风险实证分析...................................................28 4.3.1 变量选择.....................................................................................................28浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 个人住房贷款风险影响因素及管理研究 IV 4.3.2Logit 模型的引入.......................................................................................30 4.4 数据来源及处理.................................................................................................31 4.4.1 数据来源....................................................................................................31 4.4.2 数据处理.....................................................................................................31 4.5logit 模型构建...................................................................................................32 4.5.1 样本数据描述性统计................................................................................32 4.5.2logit 模型结果分析...................................................................................37 4.6 主要研究结论....................................................................................................41 4.6.1 贷款基本情况对违约风险的影响............................................................42 4.6.2 借款人情况对违约风险的影响................................................................43 5 商业银行个人住房贷款风险管理策略研究.........................................45 5.1 银行防范个人住房贷款风险的措施................................................................45 5.1.1 完善个人住房贷款信用风险防范机制....................................................45 5.1.2 加强贷前真实性审核................................................................................45 5.1.3 加强从业人员培训，提高从业人员风险意识........................................47 5.1.4 提高银行风险防控体系............................................................................47 5.2 完善对于房地产开发商的风险防范................................................................48 5.2.1 加强对开发商资质的调查........................................................................48 5.2.2 加强资金监管及资金用途审核................................................................48 5.2.3 出现虚假贷款后及时采取保全行为........................................................48 5.3 加强对中介机构风险的防范............................................................................49 6 结论..........................................................................................................51 6.1 研究结论.............................................................................................................51 6.2 讨论与展望.........................................................................................................52