本报告对房地产开发项目可行性分析进行了探讨性研究,并利用可行性研究的相关理论 及方法对湖南省常德市房地产业的一个具体案例(/人唐人家0项目)进行了详细的可行性分 析本文是一篇采用经营管理理论与房地产业的具体实践相结合,解决房地产开发企业存在 的实际问题,提供房地产开发项目可行性分析的参考性的报告,具有一定的代表性和现实意 义报告首先介绍了房地产开发项目可行性分析的有关理论依据,主要包括市场分析及经济 分析方面的一些理论其次,介绍了房地产开发项目可行性分析的概念及作用,并给出了规 范的可行性分析应包括的步骤流程及可行性报告应涵盖的具体内容在/大唐人家0项目的 可行性分析部分,从该项目的市场可行性!l:程可行性!经济可行性二方面对其进行了分析 并重点分析了该项目所处的市场及区域经济环境,以及从该项目的投资估算!销售收入的测 算!财务评价指标的选取与计算!不确定性分析等方面进行了经济可行性评价最后,得出 了该项目可行性分析的结论,并对存在的问题提出了相关的建议 关键词:房地产可行性分析经济评价风险不确定性 FESIBILITYANALYZINGOFTHEDATANG RENJIAREALESrL气I,EPROJECT ABSTRACT Thishtesis15hetsUtdyorf记aiesattePorjeetefasibiliytnaalysis.胡dalsonaalZyingaeralease (DAI该NGRENJAIProjCe)t,5efasibiliytofaChnagdeeralestaetneetprrise.Itsolvesaeral problnetorfnaenteprriesnadPorvidesaeaesnieralestaetefasbiiliytnaa>ysis.Tbehtesis15 t即ieainaderalistie, Fsrit,hethetsisnirtoduees50幻ehteoyrbasisbauoteralesattePorjeetefasbiiliytnaalysis. 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Keywords:eralestate,efasibiliytnaalysis,eeonomieevaluation,risk,indefiniteness贵州大学2006届硕_卜研究生学位报告/大唐人家0商品住宅开发项目可行性研究 目录 1.导论........................................................................................................................................,..,l 1.1问题的提出..............................................................................................,.............................l 1.2国内外研究现状及水平...........................................................,...........................,......1 1.2.1国外研究现状及水平........................................................0.......................................1 1..22国内研究现状及水平....................................................................................................~.2 1.3研究目的和意义............................................,...................................................................2 1.4研究方法........................,.......................................................................................................3 1,5报告构架........................................................................................................t..............-....3 2.房地产开发可行性分析概述及理论分析......一..........................~..../................~....4 2.1房地产开发项目可行性分析概述....................................0.,.,0........................................4 2.1.1可行性分析的概念.,.........................................................,..............0.............一4 2.1.2可行性分析的作用.................................................0................./........................,4 2.1.3可行性分析的步骤和内容.....................................#...#0#/5 22房地产开发项目可行性分析的理论依据..................................................................................7 2:21收益最大化原理........................................................................0#7 .2.22资金的时间价值原理..................0...................................#4#0一7 .22.3风险一收益及风险一效用原理..,~二,.............一....#,.,~#一/#0一/#,~,8.2.24市场环境分析及市场需求预测理论.,...............00.../.00二0..,...0........10 3./大唐人家0商品住宅开发项目可行性分析....................................0..................~....12 3.1项目概述..,0...............................................,.......................................................................12 3.1.1项目背景.一..~二0..一一.一...一~..................0............................................~..12 3.1.2主要经济技术指标...........................................................~....,#14 3.1.3问题与建议.................................................................,.............................................巧 3.2项目建设的必要性分析......,........................................,........15 3.2.1项目建设符合国家产业政策.....................................................................................一..巧 .3.22项目建设是满足人们对康居住宅的实际需求.............................................................巧 3..23项目建设是满足常德市住宅消费市场的需求.....................................................,.16 3.2.4项目建设是完善城北新区城市规划,促进城市建设的需要.....................................16 3.3市场分析与预测..........................................,......................................#17 3.3.1政策及宏观形势分析...........................................................#......17 第I贝 飞贵州人学2006届硕卜研究生学位报告/人唐人家0商品住宅开发项目可行性研究 3 . 3.2常德市住宅市场现状分析............................................................................................18 3.3.3常德市住宅市场竞争特点............................................................................................20 3 . 3.4项目市场前景分析.......................................................................................,..........22 3.3.5项目目标市场分析.........................................................................................................22 3.3.6项目市场价格预测.........................................................................................................23 3 . 3.7项目营销策略分析.........................................................................................................24 3.4项目选址及建设条件分析........................................................................................................25 3.4.1地理位置.........................................................................................................................25 3..42建设条件.........................................................................................................................25 3..43征地及拆迁...................................................................................,...........................27 .35建设规模及功能标准...........................................一...................................................................27 3.5.1建设内容及规模...................................................................................................,...27 3..52功能设施标准......................,.....................................................,........................27 3.6工程技术方案分析,~...............................................................................................................28 .36.1指导思想及原则........,......................................................~.................28 .3.62项目总平面布置.........,.............................................................................................29 .3.63项目建筑布局.........................,.................................................................................30 .3.64结构..............................................................................,............................................30 .3.65电气.................................................................................................................................31 .3.66给排水..........................................................................,............................................34 3.7消防安全及节能措施分析......................................~...36 .37.1消防安全..................................................................0...............................................36 3..72节能........................................................................................................一.......................37 3.8环境影响评价..............................................................................................................,.#.....37 3.9项目实施进度安排................................................................................#,38 .39.1建设工期...................................,...................................................,.....................38 3 . .92实施进度安排.............!............../..........................................................#38 3.10组织机构与人力资源配置.....................................................39 3.10.1组织机构..........,..,...........................................................................................39 3.102人力资源配置..........................................................................#40 3.11投资估算与资金筹措..........,...................................#..#..41 3.11.1投资估算..................................,...........,............................................................41 3 . 11 . 2资金筹措..............,.,!................................................,......................................41 3.12财务评价.....................................................,......................................................................43 第11贞 丈贵州大学2006届硕l:研究生学位报告/人唐人家0商品住宅开发项目可行性研究 3 . 12.1财务评价依据与说明...........................................,.................................................43 3.1.22销售收入!税金及附加估算............,....................................................................43 3.1.23损益分析.,..................................................~.一....................................43 3.1.24现金流量分析.................,..............................................,......................,.....科 3.1.25敏感性分析......................................................................................,..............44 3.1.26临界点分析..,.................,.................,..............................................,!.!!二!.,45 3.1.27评价结论与建议...,.................................................................................................45 3.13风险分析..,/!...!.......................,............,......................,.............................46 113.1风险因素识别..............................................................#...#.......#...#46 3..132风险程度分析......................,一,.........................................#..........#.#46 3.13.3风险防范对策....................................../-二,........................,#....#..46 3.14研究结论与建议.....................,..................................,........#.....#...47 3.14.1结论,.................,......-.........,..,...,................................................47 3.1.42建议....,..................................................................,............~.......................47 4.结论......................................................................................................................,..............48 致谢二-.-.!..,~.一/......................................................,...~................................49