随着城市的发展，轨道交通已从传统的公交模式转变为以地铁为主骨架的交通出行 模式，因此地铁客流的增大，地铁广告市场蓬勃发展，吸引了海内外众多投资者的关注， 与地铁媒体相关的投资项目商业计划书的撰写已成为需要研究的重要课题。本文正是依 托项目商业计划书的思路来为一个具体的项目进行研究和策划，从投资者的角度出发， 旨在系统科学地分析项目的确立、实施及运营目标和计划，结合 B 集团以往对户外广告 媒体项目投资的经验与管理，综合项目管理学、管理学、市场营销学、投资行为学、财 务管理、风险管理等理论知识，对 C 市地铁媒体经营权投资项目进行综合分析与全面策 划。 文章以 C 市地铁媒体经营权投资项目所面临的投资决策问题为出发点，首先介绍了 投资方的基本情况和发展优势，分析投资动因以及项目概况，接着针对投资项目所处的 外部环境进行分析，分别从宏观环境、行业环境两个方面进行项目的市场预测，根据投 资项目的特点进行营销策划，以提高项目整体的互适性，并增强投资者信心和确定未来 经营思路。最后，通过制定财务计划计算分析该项目在财务上的可行性，并从盈亏平衡、 敏感性、风险等方面对该项目进行不确定性分析。根据对项目的各种因素进行综合考量， 可以判断本项目的市场是广阔的，能为投资者带来更好的经济效益和社会价值。本文是 一篇采用相关项目投资和管理理论与媒体广告业的具体实践相结合，解决地铁媒体投资 项目存在的实际问题，提供地铁媒体投资项目商业计划书参考性的报告，具有一定的代 表性和现实意义。 关键字，地铁媒体；投资；商业计划书II Abstract With the development of city, the rail traffic has from the traditional bus mode converted to traffic mode of metro, therefore, with the increase of metro traffic, subway advertising market booming and it attracted many investors at home and abroad, and the writing of the investment project business plan related to Metro media has become one of the important study topic. This paper is researched and planned based on the project business plan ideas for a specific project. From the perspective of investors, hopefully to analyzing the establishment of project scientifically, perform and function goal and plan, and combined with B group of outdoor advertising media project investment experience and management, integrating project management, management science, marketing, investment behavior, financial management, risk management theory of knowledge, this paper analyzed and planned investment project of metro media business for C city. In the first, this paper introduced the basic situation of the investor and development strengths, and analyzed the investment motivation and project profiles with the problems faced by the project as a starting point. Second, the paper analyzed the external environment in which investment projects, and did the project's market forecast separated from the macro environment and industry environment. Third, this paper made the marketing plans according to the characteristics of investment projects to improve the overall adaptability of the project, and to enhance investor confidence and determine future business ideas. Last, this paper calculated and analyzed the financial viability of this project through making financial planning, and did the uncertainty analysis from the break-even, sensitivity, risk and other aspects. According to the consideration of various project factors, we can determine that the project's market is vast, and can bring better economic benefits and social values for investors and social values. This paper is an adoption-related investment and management theory and practice of the media advertising industry specific combination of media investment solutions subway practical problems, providing metro media investment project business plan reference papers, has a representative and practical significance. Key word : metro media ; investment ; business planIII 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景及研究意义...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 商业计划书理论概述............................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 环境分析理论概述................................................................................................... 3 1.2.3 市场营销理论概述................................................................................................... 4 1.2.4 财务计划分析理论概述........................................................................................... 5 1.3 研究内容及方法.............................................................................................................. 7 1.3.1 研究目标及研究内容............................................................................................... 7 1.3.2 拟采取的研究方法及技术路线............................................................................... 7 第二章 项目概述及投资方介绍..............................................................................................9 2.1 项目概述.......................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 投资方介绍...................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.1 企业概况................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 企业优势分析......................................................................................................... 10 2.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 15 第三章 项目投资环境分析....................................................................................................16 3.1 宏观环境分析................................................................................................................ 16 3.1.1 社会环境分析......................................................................................................... 16 3.1.2 经济环境分析......................................................................................................... 17 3.1.3 政治环境分析......................................................................................................... 18 3.1.4 技术环境分析......................................................................................................... 19 3.2 行业环境分析................................................................................................................ 19 3.2.1 全国户外媒体发展现状及趋势分析..................................................................... 19 3.2.2 全国地铁媒体发展现状及趋势............................................................................. 22IV 3.2.3 C 市地铁媒体发展前景分析 ............................................................................... 24 3.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 25 第四章 项目业务发展计划....................................................................................................27 4.1 市场推广目标及计划.................................................................................................... 27 4.2 定价策略........................................................................................................................ 27 4.3 促销策略........................................................................................................................ 29 4.4 提升低级别站点媒体刊挂率的策略............................................................................ 30 4.4.1 TA 搭配策略 ............................................................................................................ 30 4.4.2 FC 搭配策略 ............................................................................................................ 31 4.5 集团内部销售促进........................................................................................................ 31 4.5.1 客户资源的共享..................................................................................................... 31 4.5.2 销售网络的共享..................................................................................................... 32 4.5.3 跨媒体销售分账核算............................................................................................. 32 4.6 创新销售策略................................................................................................................ 32 4.7 公益广告计划................................................................................................................ 32 4.8 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 33 第五章 项目财务计划与分析................................................................................................34 5.1 项目财务估算................................................................................................................ 34 5.1.1 项目经营方案......................................................................................................... 34 5.1.2 项目投资估算......................................................................................................... 35 5.1.3 资金来源与投入方式............................................................................................. 35 5.1.4 贷款本息的偿还..................................................................................................... 35 5.1.5 项目经营收入估算................................................................................................. 37 5.1.6 经营期成本费用估算............................................................................................. 41 5.2 财务分析计算................................................................................................................ 44 5.2.1 损益表和现金流量表............................................................................................. 44 5.2.2 静态盈利能力分析................................................................................................. 46 5.2.3 动态盈利能力分析................................................................................................. 47 5.2.4 贷款偿还能力分析................................................................................................. 48 5.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 49V 第六章 项目不确定性分析..................................................................................................50 6.1 盈亏平衡分析................................................................................................................ 50 6.2 敏感性分析.................................................................................................................... 50 6.3 风险分析........................................................................................................................ 52 6.3.1 行业政策风险......................................................................................................... 52 6.3.2 经营风险................................................................................................................. 53 6.3.3 建设风险................................................................................................................. 53 6.3.4 财务风险................................................................................................................. 53 6.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 53 结 论........................................................................................................................................55