公路工程建设项目因工程开发周期长、建设规模大、投资高、涉及范围广等 特点，所以困难和问题多且复杂。在整个公路工程建设项目的周期中，前期所进 行的可行性研究具有前瞻性和控制性的影响，因此，公路工程建设项目可行性研 究在公路工程建设项目周期中处于核心地位，能够为项目提供长期的指导性帮 助，同时也为项目的决策提供科学性的意见。 本报告共分四章。第一章概括的阐述了公路工程可行性研究的作用、目的和 地位。探讨了国内外公路工程可行性研究现状，针对目前工作当中所遇到的问题 提出了公路工程可行性研究工作中有三个关键环节的观点；第二章结合实际项目 介绍了交通量预测原理和方法，并对实际项目的交通量进行了预测和分析；第三 章结合实际项目的方案，从建设条件、技术标准和投资规模等方面进行的分析， 对推荐方案进行系统的评价；第四章通过实际项目，介绍了项目经济评价的内容 和方法，对实际项目进行了科学的经济评价。 本报告依托平瑞街西延线工程可行性研究，依据公路工程可行性研究相关理 论，针对公路工程可行性研究中最重要的三个环节，交通量分析预测、方案比选、 经济评价进行了实践研究，为平瑞街西延线工程建设项目的决策提供了重要依 据。 关键词，公路工程可行性研究；交通量预测；方案比选；经济评价Abstract Road construction project due to a long development cycle, building a large scale, high investment, involving a wide range of characteristics such as the difficulties and problems so many and complex. Highway construction projects throughout the project cycle, pre-feasibility study carried out by forward-looking and the impact of control, therefore, the road construction project in Highway Engineering Feasibility Study for the construction of the project cycle at the heart of the project is able to provide guiding long-term help, but also the decision-making for the project to provide scientific advice. This paper is divided into four chapters. The first chapter on general highway engineering feasibility study of the role, purpose and status. Road works at home and abroad discussed the status of the feasibility study, in view of the current work of the problems encountered by highway projects proposed in the feasibility study there are three key aspects of the perspective; Chapter II introduced the combination of the actual project traffic forecasting principles and methods the actual project traffic forecasts and analysis; Chapter III of the program in light of the actual projects, from building conditions, technical standards and investment in areas such as analysis, on the recommendation of the program evaluation system; the fourth chapter, through the actual project on economic evaluation of the project content and methodology of the actual items on the economic evaluation of science. In this paper, based on Ping Rui Street West Extension project feasibility study, feasibility study of highway projects in accordance with the relevant theory, the feasibility study for highway projects in the most important of three components: the volume of traffic analysis and forecasting, program selection, economic evaluation of the practice research, Rui-ping Street West extension of the construction project has provided an important basis for decision-making. Key words， Highway project feasibility study； traffic forecasts； program selection； economic evaluation目 录 1 绪 论 ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 问题的提出及意义...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状.......................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国外可行性研究现状................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 国内公路工程可行性研究现状................................................................................ 3 1.3 目前国内公路工程可行性研究存在的问题............................................................... 4 1.4 研究内容....................................................................................................................... 5 2 交通量预测和分析 ............................................................................................................ 6 2.1 平瑞街西延线工程简介............................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 建设理由.................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 项目影响区域社会经济状况及发展........................................................................ 7 2.1.3 项目影响区域交通运输现状及发展........................................................................ 7 2.2 平瑞街西延线工程交通量预测和分析....................................................................... 9 2.2.1 交通量预测和分析概述............................................................................................ 9 2.2.2 相关基础资料.......................................................................................................... 12 2.2.3 未来趋势交通量预测.............................................................................................. 14 2.2.4 诱增交通量预测...................................................................................................... 16 2.2.5 转移交通量预测...................................................................................................... 17 2.2.6 项目远景交通量预测.............................................................................................. 18 2.2.7 结论.......................................................................................................................... 18 3 公路方案比选 .................................................................................................................. 19 3.1 平瑞街西延线工程建设条件..................................................................................... 19 3.1.1 建设必要性.............................................................................................................. 19 3.2 平瑞街西延线工程建设方案..................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 项目概况.................................................................................................................. 20 3.3 方案设计..................................................................................................................... 21 3.3.1 平面设计.................................................................................................................. 213.3.2 纵断设计.................................................................................................................. 22 3.3.3 横断面设计.............................................................................................................. 22 3.3.4 路基路面设计.......................................................................................................... 23 3.3.5 排水设计.................................................................................................................. 24 3.3.6 桥梁设计.................................................................................................................. 24 3.3.7 交通工程设计.......................................................................................................... 29 3.3.8 绿化设计.................................................................................................................. 30 3.3.9 照明设计.................................................................................................................. 30 3.4 方案对比..................................................................................................................... 30 4 经济评价 .......................................................................................................................... 32 4.1 平瑞街西延线工程经济评价的基本考虑................................................................. 32 4.1.1 经济评价的依据和方法.......................................................................................... 32 4.1.2 经济评价指标.......................................................................................................... 32 4.1.3 有关参数的确定...................................................................................................... 33 4.1.4 国民经济评价.......................................................................................................... 33 4.1.5 经济成本.................................................................................................................. 37 4.1.6 国民经济评价结果.................................................................................................. 40 4.1.7 国民经济敏感性分析.............................................................................................. 41 4.2 分析和评估................................................................................................................. 41 5 结 论 ........................................................................................................................... 43 6 致谢 ........................................................................................................................... 44 7