进入 21 世纪后，世界经济格局发生变化，随着国内市场需求结构以及世界产业格 局的变化，我国重化工工业也进入了加速发展的阶段。重化工业是关联度大、技术含量 高、资金密集度高的行业，其发展呈现出基地化、园区化、产业集群、对区域经济的带 动力强等特点。目前我国超过 50%的石化产品依赖进口，特别是原油进口，因此沿海港 口成了原油进口的交割地和集散地，大型的石化企业纷纷布局在各地临海产业区。 2011 年后，国家开始推行稳健的经济政策，收缩银根，紧急叫停或放缓大型基础建 设项目的进度。各地政府开始引进各种社会资金投资基础建设项目，其中 BT 模式倍受 青睐。地方政府更是加大力度，引进社会力量进行投资，采用 BT 投资模式，与大型企 业合作，推进地方经济建设。 Z 市石化产业园区 BT 项目就是在以上国内外经济格局和产业背景下，切合国内经 济政策和地方产业规划开始谋划的。Z 市希望通过规划，设置该项目，配套上游石化企 业，形成产业群，拉动地方经济。该项目准备通过 BT 的投资模式，引进大型企业合作， 造地开发成型，通过卖地获得收入，支付合作企业的投入成本和利润，推进地方经济发 展，促进企业转型升级。 本文以商业计划书的方式，通过 MBA 课堂学到的理论和分析方法，理论结合实际， 对 Z 市石化产业区 BT 项目，进行了详细外部环境分析、内部环境分析、市场分析、竞 争性分析和 SWOT 分析，在此基础上对项目建设方案和施工组织设计也做了充足的论 述，并对项目的投资估算和效益分析，也对项目可能出现的风险进行界定、分析和防范， 通过以上的论述和分析，得出本项目建设是可行的，具备一定投资价值的结论。 关键词，石化产业园区；投资分析；商业计划书II ABSTRACT The world economic changes after entering the 21st century, China entered a phase of accelerated development of heavy chemical industries, with the change of the domestic market demand and the pattern of international industry. The characteristics of heavy chemical industry are large relational grade, high technology and high capital-intensive. The development shows the features of base construction, park industrialization, industrial cluster and has strong positive effect on the regional economy. More than 50% of petrochemical products rely on imports, especially imports of oil; therefore, coastal ports have become the center for distribution and deliver of oil. More and more large petrochemical enterprises enter the industrial area along the coast. China began to promote conservation economic policies to tight money after 2011, urge to stop or slow down the progress of large-scale infrastructure projects. In order to ensure the development of the local economy and avoid rupture phenomenon of capital chain, local governments began to introduce a variety of social funds to invest in infrastructure projects. Local governments use BT mode, as the acclaimed one, to cooperate with large companies to invest in variety charities and industry parks. BT project of Z petrochemical industrial park is based on the home and aboard economy and industry background, combining domestic economic policy and local industrial planning. Wishedto adopt the planning of Z, set the project, supporting the upstreampetrochemical enter prises, the formation of industrial clusters, stimulating the localeconomy.The project prepared by BT's investment model, the introduction of enterprisecooperation, development of land for med, through landsale revenue, input costs andprofits to pay the cooperative enterprise, prom oting local economic development,promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises. Using the theory and analysis methods learned from the MBA class, this paper analyzes the BT project of Z petrochemical industrial park through the way of the business plan. The analysis carried out the detailed external environment analysis, internal environment analysis, market analysis and competitive analysis and SWOT analysis. Besides, this paper also do the analysis of project construction plan and construction organization, simultaneously analyzes the estimate of project investment and benefit analysis. This paper also introduces how to define, analysis and prevention possible risks. Through the analysis and statement, giving the conclusion that this project has certain investment value. Key words，petrochemical industrial park；investment analysis；business planIII 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单.................................................................................................................................VII 第一章 绪 论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 项目背景和意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 国内外经济形势...................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Z 市经济社会发展现状 ........................................................................................... 2 1.1.3 区域经济社会发展规划.......................................................................................... 2 1.1.4 国内基础建设 BT 模式的发展趋势....................................................................... 3 1.1.5 国内外石化产业发展趋势...................................................................................... 4 1.1.6 研究意义.................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 BT 模式的起源和运用............................................................................................. 6 1.2.2 石化产业集群的研究与发展.................................................................................. 7 1.2.3 商业计划书.............................................................................................................. 8 1.3 研究内容和方法 ............................................................................................................. 8 第二章 项目概况......................................................................................................................9 2.1 项目介绍 ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 项目地理位置和施工条件 ............................................................................................. 9 2.3 开发动因 ....................................................................................................................... 11 2.3.1 Z 市政府开发动因 ................................................................................................. 11 2.3.2 企业开发动因........................................................................................................ 11 2.4 公司概况 ....................................................................................................................... 12 2.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 13 第三章 项目环境分析............................................................................................................14 3.1 项目宏观环境分析 ....................................................................................................... 14IV 3.1.1 国家产业政策环境分析........................................................................................ 14 3.1.2 地方产业规划环境分析........................................................................................ 14 3.1.3 基础建设金融政策环境分析................................................................................ 15 3.2 项目目标市场分析 ....................................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 目标市场供需分析................................................................................................ 15 3.2.2 目标市场发展分析................................................................................................ 19 3.3 项目竞争性分析 ........................................................................................................... 19 3.3.1 竞争对手分析........................................................................................................ 19 3.3.2 潜在竞争者的进入能力........................................................................................ 20 3.3.3 供应商的议价能力................................................................................................ 20 3.3.4 顾客的议价能力.................................................................................................... 20 3.4 项目 SWOT 分析 .......................................................................................................... 21 3.4.1 优势（Strengths）................................................................................................. 21 3.4.2 劣势（Weaknesses）............................................................................................. 22 3.4.3 机会（Opportunities）.......................................................................................... 22 3.4.4 威胁（Thrents）.................................................................................................... 22 3.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 23 第四章 项目建设方案............................................................................................................24 4.1 设计方案 ....................................................................................................................... 24 4.1.1 总体方案................................................................................................................ 24 4.1.2 平面布置方案........................................................................................................ 24 4.2 主要水工建筑物 ........................................................................................................... 25 4.3 主要工程量 ................................................................................................................... 26 4.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 27 第五章 施工组织设计、运营管理和保障措施....................................................................28 5.1 施工组织设计 ............................................................................................................... 28 5.1.1 施工总体布置原则................................................................................................ 28 5.1.2 施工方案................................................................................................................ 28 5.1.3 施工进度计划........................................................................................................ 29V 5.2 运营管理 ....................................................................................................................... 29 5.3 保障措施 ....................................................................................................................... 30 5.3.1 资金保障措施........................................................................................................ 31 5.3.2 组织保障措施........................................................................................................ 31 5.3.3 项目外部组织保障................................................................................................ 31 5.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 31 第六章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................33 6.1 项目投资估算及计划 ................................................................................................... 33 6.1.1 工程内容及编制说明............................................................................................ 33 6.1.2 围海造地项目投资估算........................................................................................ 34 6.1.3 项目投资估算........................................................................................................ 36 6.1.4 项目投资计划........................................................................................................ 36 6.2 回购收入预测 ............................................................................................................... 37 6.2.1 土地销售量............................................................................................................ 37 6.2.2 营运收入测算........................................................................................................ 37 6.3 盈利能力分析 ............................................................................................................... 38 6.3.1 项目利润估算........................................................................................................ 38 6.3.2 项目财务净现值及财务内部收益率.................................................................... 39 6.4 不确定分析 ................................................................................................................... 40 6.4.1 项目总投资不确定性分析.................................................................................... 40 6.4.2 营运收入不确定性分析........................................................................................ 40 6.4.3 营运费用不确定性分析........................................................................................ 40 6.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 41 第七章 项目风险分析和对策................................................................................................42 7.1 项目风险类型 ............................................................................................................... 42 7.1.1 工程设计风险........................................................................................................ 42 7.1.2 合同订立风险........................................................................................................ 42 7.1.3 金融风险................................................................................................................ 43 7.1.4 政府信用风险........................................................................................................ 43VI 7.1.5 项目回购风险........................................................................................................ 43 7.1.6 征地拆迁风险........................................................................................................ 43 7.2 项目风险规避原则 ....................................................................................................... 43 7.3 项目风险规避对策 ....................................................................................................... 44 7.3.1 工程设计风险规避对策........................................................................................ 44 7.3.2 合同订立风险规避对策........................................................................................ 44 7.3.3 金融风险规避对策................................................................................................ 44 7.3.4 政府信用风险规避对策........................................................................................ 45 7.3.5 项目回购风险规避对策........................................................................................ 45 7.3.6 征地拆迁风险规避对策........................................................................................ 45 7.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 46 结 论......................................................................................................................................47