专业的商业计划书既是一个企业寻找投资的必备条件，也是左右投资人投资成功与 否的关键措施，更是一个企业对自身的现状及未来发展战略全面思索和重新定位的重要 过程。 JF 商业地产项目是广东 JS 有限公司与广州市 DT 总公司合作开发的、位于广州市 地铁一号线上的地铁上盖项目，因为多方面的主、客观原因，该项目被搁置多年，目前 重启开发的条件基本具备。鉴于此，本文从几个方面对项目开发的可行性进行探讨和研 究，借以为投资人决策提供参考，为投资人经营提出建议。主要内容包括， 对研究的背景和意义以及投资决策需要运用的几个重要原理——“五力”分析 模型、SWOT 分析模型、企业竞争战略、市场营销等进行了简要阐述。 简要介绍了项目开发商和项目的基本情况，并分析了项目开发所处的宏观政策环境 和市场竞争环境，分析了项目开发所具备的优势和存在的劣势、项目开发应把握的机会 和面临的风险。总体来看，政府会继续采取多种措施加强对房地产价格的调控，行业竞 争日趋激烈；项目开发优势凸显，机会明显超越风险。 在对项目所处环境及项目自身条件分析的基础上，对目标市场和目标客户进行了分 析，据此对项目开发进行了定位，并对实现目标应采取的市场营销策略进行了设计。目 标市场以零售、休闲娱乐、中介服务为主；目标客户集中于投资客、商业和服务经营者； 最终将项目打造成集时尚、休闲、娱乐、服务于一体的场所或平台。 按照项目定位及市场预测，对该投资项目的经济效益进行了测算，按回报率 10%计， 净现值 7748.42 万元，远大于零，说明 JF 项目可行；内部收益率 24.19%，远大于设定 的 10%的投资回报率；动态投资回收期 3.92 年，风险较小。 对重启项目开发的社会效益进行了阐述，社会效益显著，尤其对化解多年因拆迁引 致的社会不稳定因素作用巨大。同时也对项目开发的政策风险和市场风险给予了评估， 并提出了规避风险的有关对策。把握政策风向标、控制开发和销售进度、控制项目现金 流至关重要。 经过分析论证，认为项目是可行的。 关键词，商业计划；环境分析；项目定位；效益分析II Abstract Professional business plan is not only the indispensable condition for companies which are looking for investment, but also the key measure that determines whether investors can have investment success or not. Most importantly, qualified business plan is the significant process of a corporation’s comprehensive thinking and repositioning their situation also future development. JF commercial real estate project, located on Line 1, Guangzhou Metro, is the metro superstructure cooperative development project which is held by Guangdong JS Corporation and Guangzhou DT Corporation. Because of various subjective and objective reasons the project was shelved for years and now it has the basic development conditions to restart. In view of this situation, the paper will explore and study the feasibility of the project development from different aspects, provide a reference for investors’ decisions and make recommendations for investors’ operating. The main contents include: Explain the background and significance of the research. Briefly explain Michael Porter's Five Forces Model, SWOT Analysis, Competitive Strategy and Marketing which are important principles that investment decisions need to be used. Briefly introduce the basic situation of project developers and projects and analyze the macroeconomic policy environment and market competitive environment that the project has. Analyzing the existing advantages and disadvantages of the projects and the opportunities also the risks that the project faces. Overall, the Government will continue to take various measures to strengthen the regulation of real estate prices and competition in the industry is increasingly intense. The project has obvious benefits and opportunities significantly exceed the risks. Based on the analysis of the project’s environment and the conditions of the project itself, analyse the target markets and target customers. And according to this, position the project development and design the marketing strategy which should be taken in order to achieve the planning objectives. Target market primarily focusses on retail, entertainment, intermediary service-oriented; targeted customers basically focus on business operators and investors. The project will eventually be made as an area or platform which gathers fashion, leisure and entertainment services. According to the project positioning and market forecasts, calculate the economic benefits of investment project: according to the 10% rate of return, the net present value is 77.4842 million Yuan which is much higher than zero, indicating that the project JF is feasible;III 24.19% internal rate of return which is much higher than the 10% return on investment that is set; dynamic investment recovery period is 3.92 years which means the risk is low. Expound the social benefit which the restarting project can bring, the social benefit is significant, especially playing a powerful role in resolving the huge social instability caused by demolition for years. In the same time, evaluating the policies and market risks and proposes risk aversion related measures. Grasping the policy benchmark, control development and sales progress, control project cash flow are extremely weighty. After analysis and demonstrating. The project is feasible. Key words: Business Plan; Environmental Analysis; Project positioning; Benefit AnalysisIV 目 录 摘要.I Abstract ..II 图表清单...VII 第一章 绪论1 1.1 研究的背景和意义 .... 1 1.1.1 研究的背景.... 1 1.1.2 研究的意义.... 1 1.2 文献综述 .. 2 1.2.1 商业计划书.... 2 1.2.2“五力”分析模型 ... 3 1.2.3SWOT 分析模型 .. 5 1.2.4 企业竞争战略 6 1.2.5 商业房地产营销策略 6 1.3 研究的方法 .... 7 1.4 研究内容和结构 7 1.4.1 研究的主要内容.. 7 1.4.2 的主要结构.. 8 1.5 本章小结 .. 9 第二章 开发商及项目基本情况..10 2.1JF 商业地产项目基本情况 .. 10 2.1.1 项目来源 10 2.1.2 项目用地 10 2.2JF 项目场址建设条件 .... 11 2.3 开发商情况及主要优势 12 2.3.1 开发商基本情况介绍.... 12 2.3.2 开发商的主要优势.. 15 2.4 本章小结 16 第三章 市场环境与竞争分析17V 3.1 市场环境分析 .... 17 3.1.1 国家宏观政策环境.. 17 3.1.2 广州地区宏观环境.. 19 3.1.3 广州地区市场需求预测与分析 20 3.2 行业竞争环境分析 .. 22 3.2.1 供应商讨价还价的能力 22 3.2.2 购买者讨价还价的能力 23 3.2.3 潜在市场进入者的威胁 24 3.2.4 替代品的威胁.... 24 3.2.5 行业内竞争者的当前竞争能力 24 3.3JF 项目竞争楼盘分析 .... 25 3.4 本章小结 27 第四章 目标市场分析和目标市场定位..29 4.1 项目 SWOT 分析 ..... 29 4.1.1 项目的优势.. 29 4.1.2 项目的劣势.. 32 4.1.3 项目的机会.. 32 4.1.4 项目的威胁.. 32 4.2 目标市场及客户分析 .... 32 4.2.1 目标市场 32 4.2.2 目标客户 33 4.3 项目功能总体规划 .. 34 4.3.1 项目总体功能定位.. 34 4.3.2 项目规划实现途径.. 34 4.4 项目市场定位 .... 35 4.4.1 功能定位 35 4.4.2 客户定位 35 4.4.3 业态组合定位.... 35 4.4.4 规模定位 36 4.4.5 形象定位 36VI 4.5 本章小结 36 第五章 营销策略的制定与实施..38 5.1 产品策略 38 5.2 价格策略 38 5.3 渠道策略 39 5.3.1 销售团队 39 5.3.2 销售渠道 39 5.4 促销策略 40 5.5 促销计划 40 5.6 本章小结 41 第六章 财务分析..42 6.1 项目投资总额预算 .. 42 6.2 资金投入计划与资金筹措 .. 43 6.3 项目盈利模式 .... 43 6.4 项目盈利能力分析 .. 43 6.4.1 项目价格预测与收入分析.. 43 6.4.2 项目税费计算.... 45 6.4.3 项目现金流分析 47 6.5 项目敏感性分析 48 6.6 本章小结 48 第七章 社会效益与风险分析49 7.1 社会效益分析 .... 49 7.2 风险分析与对策 50 7.2.1 宏观政策风险及对策.... 50 7.2.2 经营风险与对策 50 7.3 本章小结 51 结 论....52