中国农业银行长春分行个人住房贷款风险研究 随着国民经济的发展，我国房地产行业快速发展，这不仅带动房地产上下 游行业的高速发展，也极大的推动了银行业个人住房贷款业务的发展。一直以 来，个人住房贷款都被我国商业银行视为低风险的贷款业务，对其风险管理也 一直滞后于其他贷款业务的风险管理。不过，2008年国际金融危机的发生促使 巴塞尔委员会认识到个人住房贷款的风险，并将该业务视为高风险的贷款。当 前我国正处于产业结构调整的关键阶段，针对房地产的市场政策频繁出台，房 地产的政策倾向紧缩，这使得我国商业银行个人住房贷款业务的风险逐步提 高。因此，针对个人住房贷款业务风险的研究，不论是对我国商业银行贷款风 险管控水平的提升，还是对于我国的金融稳定都具有十分重要的现实意义。 本文以中国农业银行股份有限公司长春分行作为分析和研究对象，对其个 人住房贷款业务风险进行研究，找出该业务存在的主要问题，并提出相应的风 险防范和保障措施。全文分为五个部分，第一部分为绪论，介绍本文的研究背 景和意义、研究内容和方法，并总结了相关研究现状，对涉及的理论基础进行 阐述；第二部分介绍中国农业银行长春分行个人住房贷款现状，分析该业务风 险管理中存在的主要问题，如内部制度缺陷、个人住房贷款发放过程中的道德 风险、房地产行业规范经营问题等，并识别该分行个人住房贷款业务的主要风 险，如信用风险、市场风险、政策风险等；第三部分对中国农业银行长春分行 个人住房贷款的信用风险、市场风险、操作风险、政策风险进行分析；第四部 分在前文分析的基础上，给出长春分行个人住房贷款业务信用风险、市场风 险、操作风险、政策风险的防范和保障措施；最后为结论，对全文的研究结果 进行总结。 本文的研究结果具有一定的理论和实践意义。在理论意义方面，本文的研II 究有助于丰富个人住房贷款业务信贷风险管理的研究内容。在实践意义上，本 文的研究有助于提高中国农业银行股份有限公司长春分行个人住房贷款的风险 管理水平，进而有助于降低该分行个人住房贷款不良率、促进该分行稳健运 营。此外，本文的研究对同规模银行个人住房金融风险防范有借鉴意义。 关键词， 风险管理,个人住房贷款,风险识别,风险分析III Abstract Research on Risk of Individual Housing Loan of Agricultural Bank of China Changchun Branch With the development of the national economy, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly. This has not only driven the rapid development of the real estate industry upstream and downstream, but also greatly promoted the development of the banking individual housing loan business. All along, individual housing loan has been regarded as a low-risk loan business by commercial banks in China, and its risk management has been lagging behind the risk management of other loan businesses. However, the occurrence of the international financial crisis in 2008 prompted the Basel Committee to recognize the risks of individual housing loans and to view the business as a high-risk loan. At present our country is in the key stage of industrial structure adjustment, the market policy for real estate is frequently introduced, and the policy of real estate tends to be tightened, which makes the risk of personal housing loan business of commercial banks in China gradually increase. Therefore, the study on the risk of individual housing loan business is of great practical significance to the improvement of the risk control level of commercial bank loans and to the financial stability of our country. Taking Changchun branch of China agricultural bank Co., Ltd. as the object of analysis and research, this paper studies the risks of its personal housing loan business, finds out the main problems existing in the business, and puts forward corresponding risk prevention and safeguard measures. The full text is divided into five parts: The first part is the introduction, introduces the background and significance of the research, the content and method of the research, summarizes the relevant research status quo, and expounds the theoretical basis involved; The second part introduces the current situation of personal housing loans in the Changchun branch of the Agricultural Bank of China and analyzes the main problems in the management of risk in this business,IV such as internal system defects, moral risks in the issuance of personal housing loans, and the regulatory management of the real estate industry. And identify the main risks of the personal housing loan business of the branch, such as credit risk, market risk, policy risk, etc.; The third part analyzes the credit risk, market risk, operation risk and policy risk of individual housing loan in Changchun Branch of Agricultural Bank of China. The fourth part, on the basis of the analysis above, gives the measures to prevent and protect the credit risk, market risk, operation risk and policy risk of the personal housing loan business in the Spring Branch. In the end, the research results are summarized. The research results of this paper have a certain theoretical and practical significance. In terms of theoretical significance, the research of this paper is helpful to enrich the research content of credit risk management of individual housing loan business. In practical sense, the research of this paper is helpful to improve the risk management level of personal housing loan of Changchun branch of China Agricultural Bank of China, and then help to reduce the bad rate of personal housing loan of the branch and promote the stable operation of the branch; In addition, the study of this paper for the size of the bank's personal housing financial risk prevention is of reference. Keywords， Risk management, Personal housing loans, Risk identification, Risk ManagementV 目 录 第 1 章 绪论.........................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ..........................................................................1 1.2 研究内容与方法 ..........................................................................2 1.3 理论基础和文献综述 ..................................................................3 第 2 章 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务现状与风险识别...............9 2.1 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务现状 .......................................9 2.2 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务风险管理现状及存在的问题.12 2.3 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务风险识别 .............................18 第 3 章 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务风险分析 ........................22 3.1 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务信用风险分析......................22 3.2 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务市场风险分析......................24 3.3 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务操作风险分析......................26 3.4 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务政策风险分析......................30 第 4 章 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务风险防范和保障措施..........33 4.1 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务风险防范 .............................33 4.2 农行长春分行个人住房贷款业务保障措施 .............................38 结 论...............................................................................................42