随着我国大部分油田进入高含水开发期，利用聚合物驱油己成为石油工业稳 产和提高原油产量的重要手段。由于聚合物驱油项目具有风险大、投资多、投资 回收期长等特点，且不同类型油藏聚合物驱的效果相差较大，故在油田开发过程 中对该类项目的经济可行性进行研究十分重要。本文针对大庆油田杏十三区块聚 合物驱油项目进行经济可行性研究，其成果对杏南油田聚合物驱油开发决策和后 续推广的工业化区块开展经济可行性研究具有重要的借鉴意义。 本文在杏十三区块聚合物驱油项目开发指标预测的基础上，通过建立回归方 程、采用遗传算法等数学方法合理劈分聚驱不同开发阶段成本费用，通过内部收 益率法、财务净现值法、投资回收期等方法对项目进行经济评价。形成以下研究 成果：（1）应用数值模拟技术明确了杏十三区块聚驱开发指标远好于水驱；（2） 明确了杏十三区块聚驱不同阶段总成本的主要影响因素是油气生产成本，为今后 聚驱工业化区块如何控制操作成本及总成本提供了方向；（3）搞清了杏十三区 块聚驱开发的盈亏平衡点以及包括建设投资、操作成本、原油产量和原油价格 4 项指标对盈亏平衡的敏感性关系，同时明确了原油价格是影响盈亏平衡的主要因 素。（4）在杏十三区块聚驱开发总投入及吨油成本均高于水驱开发总投入的条 件下，区块聚驱开发经济效益仍好于水驱开发。区块聚合物驱油项目在经济上是 可行的。 通过对杏十三区块聚合物驱油项目的经济可行性进行充分研究，得出合理的、 科学的经济评价结果，证实了区块聚驱开发具备经济可行性，能够有效指导聚驱 开发方案的实施，从而实现区块聚驱开发效益最优的目标。同时为杏南油田后续 开展的工业化区块实施经济可行性研究提供了实践经验，有利于聚合物驱油的开 发规模的逐步扩大，能够为保持原油稳产和控制聚驱开发成本提供合理的、重要 的依据，帮助石油企业更加科学地决策聚合物驱油项目，促使企业管理的水平得 以提升，促进我国石油工业经济的腾飞发展。 关键词：聚合物驱油，开发指标预测，成本费用，经济可行性评价II ABSTRACT The application of polymer flooding has become an important means of maintaining the oilfields in a stable production stage and increasing production, with most of the oilfields in China entering the high water cut development stage. It is very important to implement the study of economic feasibility, considering that the polymer flooding projects have the characteristics of high risk, large investment, a long payback period and quite difference effect of polymer flooding in different type reservoirs. This paper focuses on the economic feasibility study of polymer flooding in Xing Thirteen Block. The results have significance reference on oil development decision of Xingnan oilfield polymer flooding and economic feasibility on the industrialized block in follow-up promotion. On base of the development index prediction of the polymer flooding of Xing Thirteen Block, this paper implements economic feasibility through the internal revenue rate (IRR),net present value (NPV),payback time (PT) methods and reasonable cost split through mathematical method of regression equation, genetic algorithm. The results are summarized as follows: (1) By using numerical simulation technology, it is clarified that development index of polymer flooding is much better than that of water flooding in Xing Thirteen Block. (2) It is clarified that the cost of oil and gas production was main influencing factors of total cost in different stages, which provides direction for the control of the operation expenditures(OPEX) and the total cost of polymer flooding in the future.(3) The break-even point (BEP) of polymer flooding in Xing Thirteen Block was found, and in relation to profit and loss sensitivity analysis of four indexes including construction expenditures, OPEX, production and crude oil prices.(4)The polymer flooding economic benefits is still better than water flooding in the condition of the total investment, per ton of oil price are higher than those of water flooding. Block polymer flooding project is feasible in economy. Through thoroughly research of polymer flooding in Xing Thirteen Block onIII economic feasibility ， to draw the reasonable and scientific evaluation of economic results, confirmed the block poly flooding economic feasibility, can effectively guide the poly flooding schemes, so as to realize the block polymer flooding development of optimal efficiency of the target. At the same time to carry out follow-up in Xingnan oilfield of industrialized block the implementation of economic feasibility study to provide the experience, is conducive to the polymer flooding the gradual expansion of the scale of development of oil can to maintain stable production of crude oil and control poly flooding development costs reasonable and important basis and help oil companies more scientific decision-making polymer flooding project, promote enterprise management level can be improved, to promote the development of petroleum industry of our country economic takeoff. Key word: polymer flooding, development index prediction, OPEX, economic feasibilityIV 目录 第 1 章 绪论.................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义...................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景....................................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究目的....................................................................................................................2 1.1.3 研究意义....................................................................................................................3 1.2 研究内容与方法...................................................................................................................3 1.2.1 研究内容....................................................................................................................3 1.2.2 研究方法....................................................................................................................4 1.3 研究创新之处.......................................................................................................................5 第 2 章 相关文献综述.................................................................................................................6 2.1 相关概念界定.......................................................................................................................6 2.1.1 聚合物驱油项目........................................................................................................6 2.1.2 可行性研究................................................................................................................7 2.2 相关文献综述.......................................................................................................................8 2.2.1 开发指标预测方面的研究....................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 投资估算方面的研究............................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 成本预测方面的研究............................................................................................. 10 2.2.4 经济评价方法方面的研究......................................................................................11 第 3 章 区块开发指标预测.......................................................................................................14 3.1 研究区块概况.....................................................................................................................14 3.1.1 开采简况..................................................................................................................14 3.1.2 动用状况..................................................................................................................14 3.2 聚合物驱油开发指标预测方法........................................................................................ 15 3.2.1 数值模拟技术..........................................................................................................15 3.2.2 区块数值模拟建模和历史拟合............................................................................. 17 3.2