从 20 世纪计算机诞生之后，信息技术得到了飞速发展，互联网技术也得到普遍应 用，世界正在从工业经济社会向信息经济和知识经济社会迈进，中国的信息技术应用已 走在世界的前列。 当前，在中国发展最快的当属电子商务的应用，现已进入到全民网购时代，淘宝商 城 2015 年的双十一活动当天销售额 912.27 亿元。在这些网购商品中，还是以实物商品 占绝大多数，像计算机软件这类知识密集型的虚拟产品，通过网购的比例则相当少，但 是未来通过网络购买软件必然也会成为一种趋势。 S 公司决定从市场上寻找比较常用、价格又比较低廉，开发厂家比较多的商用软件， 以代理的方式，在主流电商平台搭建网店进行销售，客户对象以中小企业作为主。以此 作为独立的项目进行运作，并撰写该。希望通过该的编写，以商业计划书的形 式，运用战略管理、营销管理、运营管理和财务管理等方面的理论，对项目进行全方位 的分析和规划，在为本项目制定发展规划的同时，也向风险投资者做出介绍。 本文首先对项目背景、发展规划和商业模式等方面进行了介绍。接着，运用 PEST 模型和波特五力模型分别对宏观环境和行业竞争环境进行分析，并运用 SWOT 分析法 对项目的优劣势以及外部的机会与威胁进行了分析，并由此可以得出，项目面临的外部 环境十分有利，内部优势远大于劣势。在此基础上，通过 STP 营销分析选择了目标市 场，并对项目进行了定位；然后运用 4P 理论为项目制定了营销组合策略。在营销计划 的基础上，介绍了组织架构和管理团队，并制定了人员的配置及薪酬计划，制定了项目 建设计划。在以上分析的基础上，进行了投融资计划与退出方式说明、收入和支出预测、 现金流预测和项目效益评价等方面的阐述。 本项目计划投资 300 万元，其中初始投资为 64 万元，计划向风险投资者融资 200 万 元。以项目资本成本 15%作为贴现率计算，项目经营前 5 年的净现值（NPV）为 536.73 万元，前 5 年的修正内部收益率（MIRR）为 72.11%，动态投资回收期为 1.57 年，可 见本项目的经济效益十分显著。最后，对本项目进行了风险定量及定性分析。通过敏感 性分析可知，本项目具有一定的抗风险性，风险较小；通过对可能存在的政策风险、管 理风险、金融风险、市场风险和技术风险进行定性分析可知，这些风险均可通过相应的 对策来规避或控制。 关键词，电子商务；商用软件；网购；商业计划书II Abstract With the birth of computer in the 20th century, information technology has great development and of Internet has becoming popular. Knowledge economy and information society The world is being transferred to knowledge economy and information society from industrial economy society. The application of Information Technology in China is the lead around the world. At present, the application of E-commerce is developing at fastest. Most of the people are doing shopping online. Taobao Mall recorded over 91,227 billion RMB in the promotion in 11th November of 2015. However, the majority of the products been traded via internet is physical goods instead of virtual products, such as computer software or some kind of knowledge intensive products. But purchase software via internet will inevitably become a trend. S company committed to look for the more commonly used commercial software with lower price and more manufactuers developing on it, then S company can act as an agent to set up shops in the popular electric business platform for software sale, whose target group are medium-sized and small enterprises. S company take this project as a stand-alone one and the article is writing about it. This thesis is basically a business plan proposal, by using the theories of strategic management, marketing management, operation management and finance management. The aim is to establish the practical plan for the project, and make an introduction for the venture capitalists. First of all, the thesis will introduce the project background, develop plan and business model. Secondly, the PEST model and Porter Five Force model will be used in the analyzing of macro and industry environment, the SWOT analytical method is also used to analyze the advantages, disadvantages, external opportunities and threats. Based on these analysis, the conclusion comes to that the internal advantages outweigh disadvantages. On this basis, the target market has been chosen and project location by STP marketing analysis. The 4P theory is used to make the marketing strategy for project. Then the introduction of the organization structure and management team, the human resource plan. Finally will be the investing and financing plan, exit rules, income and expenditure forecast, cash flow forecast and projected benefit are also involved. The investment for project is 3 million RMB, including the initial investment 0.64 million RMB, and 2 million RMB from subsequent risk investors. If take the 15% project costIII of capital as the discount rate calculation, the net present value (NPV) will be 5.3673 million RMB, and modified internal rate of return (MIRR) will be 72.11% in the first 5 years on this project. The dynamic investment recovery period is 1.57 years. The objective of the economic benefit is remarkable. Finally, risk quantitative and qualitative analysis about this project are executed. Through the sensitivity analysis shows that the project has a certain resistance to risks, and the risk is small. Based on the possible policy risk, management risk, financial risk, market risk and technical risk qualitative analysis shows that these risks are by corresponding measures to avoid or control. Keywords，E-commerce; Commercial Software; Online Shopping; Business plan.IV 目录 摘要.....................................................................................................................................I Abstract ..............................................................................................................................II 目录..................................................................................................................................IV 图表清单.........................................................................................................................VII 第一章 绪论...................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景和意义........................................................................................ 1 1.2 相关文献综述................................................................................................ 3 1.2.1 商业计划书的编写 ................................................................................. 3 1.2.2 本文编写涉及的相关理论 ..................................................................... 4 1.2.3 电子商务方面的研究文献 ..................................................................... 6 1.3 研究方法与内容............................................................................................ 7 第二章 项目简介及环境分析.......................................................................................9 2.1 项目的发起.................................................................................................... 9 2.2 项目盈利模式及发展规划.......................................................................... 11 2.2.1 盈利模式 ............................................................................................... 11 2.2.2 项目发展规划 ....................................................................................... 12 2.3 外部环境分析.............................................................................................. 12 2.3.1 宏观环境分析 ....................................................................................... 12 2.3.2 行业环境分析 ....................................................................................... 15 2.3.3 竞争对手分析 ....................................................................................... 17 2.4 内部环境分析.............................................................................................. 17 2.5 SWOT 分析 .................................................................................................... 18 2.5.1 项目的优势 ........................................................................................... 18 2.5.2 项目的劣势 ........................................................................................... 18 2.5.3 项目的机会 ........................................................................................... 18 2.5.4 项目的威胁 ........................................................................................... 19 2.5.5 组合分析 ............................................................................................... 19 2.6 本章小结...................................................................................................... 19 第三章 市场分析与营销策略.....................................................................................21V 3.1 市场细分...................................................................................................... 21 3.2 目标市场与市场定位.................................................................................. 22 3.2.1 目标市场选择 ....................................................................................... 22 3.2.2 市场定位分析 ....................................................................................... 24 3.3 营销组合策略.............................................................................................. 25 3.3.1 产品策略 ............................................................................................... 25 3.3.2 价格策略 ............................................................................................... 26 3.3.3 渠道策略 ............................................................................................... 27 3.3.4 推广策略 ............................................................................................... 27 3.4 本章小结...................................................................................................... 30 第四章 人力资源与运营管理.....................................................................................31 4.1 组织架构及职能部门.................................................................................. 31 4.1.1 核心团队 ............................................................................................... 32 4.1.2 人员需求与薪酬 ................................................................................... 33 4.2 营运管理规划.............................................................................................. 34 4.2.1 产品规划 ............................................................................................... 34 4.2.2 网店规划 ............................................................................................... 35 4.2.3 服务规划 ............................................................................................... 35 4.3 项目建设进度.............................................................................................. 36 4.4 本章小结...................................................................................................... 36 第五章 投资估算与财务预测分析.............................................................................38 5.1 投资估算与融资计划.................................................................................. 38 5.1.1 投资估算 ............................................................................................... 38 5.1.2 融资计划 ............................................................................................... 39 5.2 项目经营预测.............................................................................................. 39 5.2.1 环境假设 ............................................................................................... 39 5.2.2 收入预测 ............................................................................................... 40 5.2.3 支出预测 ............................................................................................... 41 5.2.4 现金流预测 ........................................................................................... 43 5.3 项目效益评估.............................................................................................. 45VI 5.3.1 项目资本成本的确定 ........................................................................... 45 5.3.2 项目的净现值(NPV)............................................................................. 45 5.3.3 项目的内部收益率(MIRR) .................................................................. 46 5.3.4 项目的投资回收期 ............................................................................... 47 5.4 本章小结...................................................................................................... 47 第六章 风险管理.........................................................................................................48 6.1 风险定量分析.............................................................................................. 48 6.1.1 单因素敏感性分析 ............................................................................... 48 6.1.2 多因素敏感性分析 ............................................................................... 48 6.2 风险定性分析.............................................................................................. 49 6.2.1 政策风险 ............................................................................................... 49 6.2.2 金融风险及对策 ................................................................................... 49 6.2.3 市场风险及对策 ................................................................................... 50 6.2.4 技术风险及对策 ................................................................................... 50 6.3 本章小结...................................................................................................... 50 结论..................................................................................................................................52