I 摘要 我国进入老龄化社会已是不争的社会现实。未富先老的中国社会目前面临着 严重的养老困境，主要体现为养老服务、养老设施不足与社会老龄化日趋严重之 间的矛盾。其中包括适合老年人居住的住宅问题。当前，中国大多数的老年人口 居住的是普通住宅，没有适老型的建筑设计，对于老年人群居家养老造成了极大 的不便，尤其是介护、介助老人。社会上适老型房产存在严重的供给不足，因此， 这对我国政府、房地产开发企业、社会养老服务产业等提出了要求，在当前中国 老龄化社会不断发展之际，应该积极探索适合中国国情以及老年人生活需求的养 老地产项目。 本文通过研究成都市 A 养老地产项目开发的可行性，以成都为例探讨中国当 前养老地产的发展情况。通过引入最新数据指出，成都在中国诸多省会城市当中， 老龄化情况处于首屈一指位置，因此，研究成都养老地产发展现状有其现实性代 表意义。笔者在研究当中指出，成都老年地产存在巨大的市场缺口，老年消费群 体既需要适老型的住宅产品，同时也需要人性化、系统化一体化养老服务。同时， 根据老年群体普遍的消费水准，养老地产的价格应该是在老年人接受范围内的， 这样的养老地产，才是成都乃至中国下一步养老地产发展的方向。 因此，引入 A 养老地产项目开展可行性分析，通过 SWOT 态势全面分析 A 养 老地产项目的优势、劣势和机会、挑战。根据态势分析进一步推进 A 养老地产项 目开发模式、项目规划设计、融资方式、营销策略、成本费用、风险管理等诸多 方面的探讨，最终指出，A 养老地产项目有其可行性。这一项目在规划当中充分 考虑到目标市场消费群体需求，通过全龄复合社区的打造，引入养老综合体等项 目内部服务管理体系，为社区老年人口提供养老养生一体化服务的同时，也把相 关的服务延展到社区周边区域，因此，是当前成都社会养老服务的有效解决方案 之一。 关键词，养老地产；成都；可行性；项目ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT At present, China has entered the aging society, we also face the reality of the pension problem, that is, pension services, pension facilities and the contradiction between the increasingly serious aging society. Including residential housing for the elderly. At present, most of the elderly population living in China are ordinary residential, there is no old type of architectural design, for the elderly population in the home caused great inconvenience to the elderly, especially the care and help the elderly. Suitable for the old type of real estate society problems, serious supply therefore, it put forward the requirements for the Chinese government, the real estate development enterprises, social pension services industry, in the current Chinese aging society development, should actively explore for China conditions and the elderly living needs of the pension real estate projects. This report analyzes the current situation of China's current pension real estate projects through the study of Chengdu A pension real estate projects, taking Chengdu as an example. Through the introduction of a large number of data, the author pointed out: Chengdu in many of the capital cities in China, the aging situation is in the leading position, therefore, the study of the status quo of the development of Chengdu's pension real estate has its representative significance. The author pointed out that in the study, there is a huge gap in the market for the elderly in Chengdu, the elderly consumer groups need to adapt to the old type of residential products, but also the need for human nature, systematic integration of pension services. At the same time, according to the aged general consumption level, pension real estate prices should be in the elderly within the acceptable range, this is the development of old-age pension real estate, real estate in Chengdu and the direction of the next step China. Therefore, the author introduces the A endowment real estate project feasibility analysis, through the SWOT analysis strengths, weaknesses and opportunities, challenges the project to carry out a comprehensive analysis of many aspects, and carry out the A endowment real estate project model, project planning, financing, marketing strategy, cost, risk management etc.. It is concluded that the A pension real estate projects the feasibility of this project in the planning, give full consideration to the consumers in the target market demand, by creating the whole age complex community,ABSTRACT III the introduction of pension complex projects such as the internal management system of the service, to provide pension and health services for the integration of the elderly population in the community at the same time, also to the relevant services extended to the community the surrounding area, therefore, is one of the effective solutions to the Chengdu social endowment service. Keywords: pension real estate; Chengdu; feasibility; project目录 IV 目录 第一章 绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和研究价值........................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题研究背景.........................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究价值.................................................................................................1 1.2 可行性研究基础理论........................................................................................2 1.2.1 项目可行性研究概述.............................................................................2 1.2.2 项目可行性研究内容.............................................................................3 1.3 国内外研究现状................................................................................................3 1.3.1 国外研究现状.........................................................................................3 1.3.2 国内研究现状.........................................................................................4 1.4 研究思路和研究方法........................................................................................6 1.4.1 研究思路.................................................................................................6 1.4.2 研究方法.................................................................................................6 第二章 养老地产开发的必要性.....................................................................................8 2.1 养老地产概念及理论基础................................................................................8 2.1.1 养老地产的概念.....................................................................................8 2.1.2 养老地产理论基础.................................................................................8 2.2 养老地产项目的市场需求................................................................................9 2.2.1 人口老龄化对社会养老提出要求.........................................................9 2.2.2 居家为主的养老模式对养老地产的需求...........................................10 2.2.3 政府政策助益养老地产项目开发.......................................................10 2.3 房地产开发现状与需求.................................................................................. 11 2.3.1 商住类住宅为主的房地产市场现状................................................... 11 2.3.2 房地产项目开发情况...........................................................................12 2.3.3 房地产市场的差异化竞争格局...........................................................13 2.3.4 养老地产的需求缺口...........................................................................13 第三章 A 养老地产项目概述........................................................................................15 3.1A 养老地产市场前景........................................................................................15 3.1.1 项目开发前提.......................................................................................15 3.1.2 项目的市场规划...................................................................................15目录 V 3.2A 养老地产项目的 SWOT 态势分析..............................................................16 3.2.1 项目的优势...........................................................................................16 3.2.2 项目的劣势...........................................................................................17 3.2.3 项目的机遇...........................................................................................18 3.2.4 项目的挑战...........................................................................................19 3.2.5 分析结论...............................................................................................20 3.3A 养老地产开发的市场定位............................................................................20 3.3.1 运营养老地产的市场要素...................................................................20 3.3.2 地产开发评估.......................................................................................22 3.3.3 养老地产和一般地产区分...................................................................23 3.4 项目选址情况..................................................................................................24 3.4.1 选址原则...............................................................................................24 3.4.2 选址理由...............................................................................................25 第四章 A 养老地产项目开发规划................................................................................26 4.1 养老地产项目开发功能简介..........................................................................26 4.1.1 生活居住功能.......................................................................................26 4.1.2 娱乐休闲和文化社交功能...................................................................26 4.1.3 医疗护理功能.......................................................................................27 4.1.4 商业服务功能.......................................................................................27 4.2 项目开发规划..................................................................................................27 4.2.1 产品规划...............................................................................................27 4.2.2 建筑规划...............................................................................................28 4.2.3 项目技术指标.......................................................................................31 4.3 项目营销计划..................................................................................................31 4.3.1 项目消费者定位...................................................................................31 4.3.2 项目营销策略.......................................................................................32 4.3.3 项目售后服务.......................................................................................34 第五章 项目财务评价及风险分析...............................................................................36 5.1 项目融资..........................................................................................................36 5.2 项目一期工程投资情况..................................................................................36 5.2.1 项目总投资...........................................................................................37 5.2.2 资金筹备及使用计划...........................................................................38 5.3 一期项目经济效益分析..................................................................................39目录 VI 5.3.1 项目现金流及动态评价.......................................................................39 5.3.2 项目整体利润及静态评价...................................................................42 5.4 一期项目不确定性分析..................................................................................43 5.4.1 项目盈亏平衡分析...............................................................................43 5.4.2 敏感性分析............................................................................................44 5.5 二期项目财务预测分析..................................................................................45 5.5.1 投资建设预测安排...............................................................................45 5.5.2 收入预测...............................................................................................46 5.5.3 二期项目财务指标分析.......................................................................47 5.6 项目风险评估及应对......................................................................................47 5.6.1 项目主要风险.......................................................................................48 5.6.2 风险应对...............................................................................................49 5.7 项目开发可行性结论......................................................................................51 第六章 结论与展望.......................................................................................................52 6.1 结论..................................................................................................................52 6.2 展望..................................................................................................................52 致谢.................................................................................................................................54