摘任石3丈 现代物流是使用众多的物流资源,向客户提供运输!仓储!配送!分拨!包 装!信息服务等众多服务综合业务如何利用自身优势,控制更多的物流资源并 加以有效利用,是物流企业竞争力的重要体现 仓储不仅是整个物流产业的重要一环,也关系到我国整个国民经济的发展 仓储物流中心的功能越来越强大,它不仅是存货中心和企业生产调度中心,更是 分拨配送中心!信息服务中心!物流调度中心中国远洋物流有限公司经过十多 年的实践,我们认为,仓储资源作为发展现代物流的基础,正表现现出越来越大 的重要性物流企业只有控制和管理好物流仓库,才能控制和管理好现代物流, 提供满意的物流服务随着我国物流业务竞争的加剧,越来越多的物流企业认识 到,没有强大的仓储资源网络,没有控制和管理物流仓库的能力,就难以发展成 为有竞争力的大型物流企业 但是,由于仓储项目本身具有投资资金额度大,成本高,建设周期长以及投 资回收期长等特点,因此,对其投资存在很大的风险 目前国内外很多物流企业在我国发展物流业务的一个主要瓶颈,就是缺少仓 储资源在这种情况下,在物流中心的建设规划时,对仓储资源的投资可行性分 析就变得十分重要仓储项目投资的经济性分析,是整个项目决策的重要前提和 依据因此,研究和讨论仓储资源的经济性是十分重要和必要的 本文首先对建设青岛仓配中心的背景进行概述,并说明了建设青岛仓储物流 中心的必要性 然后,在一定的经济性假设的基础上,系统地分析了建设青岛仓配中心的经 济性,明确了建设青岛仓配中心的业务分析!投资利润率!投资回收期!净现值 及内部收益率,并进行了风险性及敏感性分析 最后,根据以上研究结果,得出建设青岛仓配中心的可行性结论 关键字:仓储物流中心;经济性分析;风险分析;敏感性分析英文摘要 CoseoQingdaoOceanShiPPingLogistiesWarehouseLogisties DistriblltionCenterFeasibilityStudy Abstraet ThemodemPhysiealdistribution15theusemultitudinousPhysiealdistribution resourees,ProvidesthetransPortation,thewarehousing,thealloeationtotheeustomer, transfers,thePaeking,theinformationserviceand50onthemultitudinousserviee eomPrehensiveserviee.HowusesownsuPeriority,eontrolsthemorePhysieal distributionresourcesandPerformstheeffectiveuse,15thePhysiealdistribution enterpriseeomPetitivePowermanifestsimP0rtantly. 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Keywords:Warehousinganddistributioneenter;Effieientanalysis;形skanalysis; Sensitiveanalysis目录 目录 第1章绪论........................................................................,...............................1 1.1选题背景...................................................,................................................1 1.2研究意义,.........................................................................................................2 1.3研究思路及主要内容......................................................................................2 1.3.1研究思路...................................................................................................2 1.3.2研究内容...................................................................................................3 第2章我国物流中心建设的现状及问题分析................................,...............4 2.1我国现代物流发展现状..................................................................................4 2.1.1现代物流内涵...........................................................................................4 2.1.2我国现代物流发展现状...........................................................................4 2.2物流中心概述..................................................................................................5 2.2.1物流中心的定义.......................................................................................5 2.2.2物流中心的主要功能...............................................................................5 2.2.3物流中心的组成部分...............................................................................6 2.2.4物流中心的运作流程...............................................................................6 2.2.5物流中心的选址.......................................................................................7 2.3物流中心建设的现状及存在问题.....................................................,......8 2.3.1我国物流中心建设现状...........................................................................8 2.3.2物流中心建设存在问题...........................................................................8 第3章建设青岛仓储物流中心的背景及必要性分析........................................10 3.1青岛市物流发展状况及发展规划................................................................10 3.1.1青岛市经济发展状况.............................................................................10 3.1.2青岛市物流发展状况......,................................................................10 3.1.3青岛市物流发展规划...............................................................,........n 3.1.4青岛市仓储发展规划.............................................................................12 3.2青岛中远物流仓储配送有限公司业务发展概况........................................12 3.2,1成立背景及组织沿革..........................................,..........,...........12 3.2.2业务发展现状分析.................................................................................13 3.2.3发展规划及远景展望............................................................................,16 3.3青岛仓储物流中心项目的提出及前期准备................................................19 3.3.1项目提出....................................,....,...........................................19目录 3.3.2项目前期准备.........................................................................................19 3.3.3青岛环海新材料工业团地简介.............................................................20 3.4青岛仓储物流中心项目必要性分析............................................................21 3,4.1青岛仓配仓储资源现状.....................................................................21 3.4.2青岛仓配仓储资源存在问题.................................................................22 3.4.3建设青岛仓配中心的必要性.................................................................23 3.5投资概算及资金来源...,..........................................................................24 3.5.1土地成本估算.........................................................................................24 3.5.2建设工程投资估算,..........................................................................25 3.5.3生产设备投资估算.................................................................................26 3.5.4资金来源........................................,二,...............................................28 第4章建设青岛仓配物流中心的经济性及敏感性分析...........................,..29 4.1经济性假设......................................,...............................................,.29 4.2青岛仓储物流中心业务发展规划................................................................29 4.3物流中心的经济预测......................................................................32 4.3.1成本预测.................................................................................................32 4.3.2收入预测.................................................................................................33 4.4投资指标分析...............................................................,二,.......................34 4.4.1现金净流量.............................................................................................34 4.4.2投资利润率及投资回收期.....................................................................35 4.4.3净现值困PV)..........................................................................................36 4.4.4内部收益率aRR).............,................................................................36 4.5建设青岛仓配物流中心的敏感度分析................,.................................37 4.5.1投资总额变化............................................................................,......37 4.5.2收入变化.................................................................................................37 4.5.3成本变化...................,.............................................................-...37 4.6小结.....................................,....................................................................38 第5章建设青岛仓配中心的风险分析................................................................39 5.1建设青岛仓配中心的风险识别....................................................................39 5.2风险评估指标体系确定................................................................................41 5.2.1确定原则....................................................,......................................41 5.2.2建立指标体系.........................................................................................41 5.3风险评估........................................................................................................43目录 第6章结论.....,................................................................................................46 6.1本文研究成果................................................................................................46 6.2进一步研究的方向........................................................................................46