随着两岸四地经济一体化进程的不断推进，人民币、港币、澳门元以及新台币四 种货币并存的局面阻碍了两岸四地经济的进一步融合。基于这样的现实，本文结合两 岸四地的政治经济环境，引出了两岸四地货币融合的需求。 本文通过阐述欧洲货币一体化的实践经验，对比多种货币一体化方式，认为两岸 四地货币一体化的实现应该采取“人民币圈”（Renminbi Bloc）的方式。“人民币圈” 的建立实际是人民币逐步替代港澳台货币的过程。本文在对两岸四地经济和金融一体 化程度分析的基础上，运用结构向量自回归模型和外部货币法模型探讨了两岸四地建 立“人民币圈”的可行性。结构向量自回归模型的分析结果表明两岸四地需求冲击的 对称性总体大于供给冲击的对称性；外部货币法模型的分析结果表明港币、澳门元和 新台币在“锚货币”选择中的人民币因素逐渐增强，由此得出两岸四地建立“人民币 圈”具有一定的可行性。 最后，本文提出两岸四地建立“人民币圈”的可行路径和货币融合次序，认为两 岸四地应该先促进金融合作，鼓励人民币在跨境贸易和投资中的使用，建立统一的金 融市场，然后根据各地经济一体化程度差异，分步骤开展货币合作。 关键词： 两岸四地 经济冲击 锚货币 人民币因素 货币合作次序Abstract With the development of economic integration in the Four-region Across the Strait, the coexisting situation of Renminbi, Hong Kong Dollar, Macau Pataca and Taiwan New Dollar hinder the further integration of the four economies. Based on this reality, combining the political and economic environment in the Four-region Across the Strait, this paper raises the demand of currency integration. Through stating the practical experience of the Euro integration, and comparing several kinds of currency integration, this paper put forward that the best way to integrate the currencies in Four-region Across the Strait is to establish Renminbi Bloc, which is a gradual process to allow Renminbi to replace Hong Kong Dollar, Macau pataca and Taiwan New Dollar. Based on the analysis of the economic and financial integration extent in the Four-region Across the Strait, This paper explores the feasibility of building Renminbi Bloc through the Structure Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) model and external currency anchor model. The result of SVAR model indicates that the demand shock is more symmetric than supply shock; the external currency anchor model indicates that Renminbi is playing the role of anchor currency for Hong Kong Dollar, Macau Pataca and Taiwan New Dollar. It’s concluded that there is feasibility of building Renminbi Bloc to some extent. Last, this paper put forward a feasible path to establish Renminbi Bloc and the order of monetary cooperation. In order to build up Renminbi Bloc, the regional financial cooperation should be promoted first, to encourage the use of renminbi in cross-border trade and investment, to establish financial market, and then promote the monetary cooperation according to the different level of economic integration in four regions. Key words: Four-region Across the Strait Economic Shocks Anchor Currency Renminbi Factor Order of Monetary Cooperation目录 摘要 ............................................................................................................................................................I Abstract......................................................................................................................................................II 目录 .........................................................................................................................................................III 1 引言 .....................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义......................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究意义........................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 本文研究思路、方法及创新点..............................................................................................2 1.2.1 研究思路........................................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 拟采取的研究方法........................................................................................................ 3 1.2.3 本研究的特色与创新之处............................................................................................ 3 2 相关文献综述 .....................................................................................................................................5 2.1 货币一体化理论......................................................................................................................5 2.1.1 传统最优货币区理论.................................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 最优货币区理论的新发展............................................................................................ 6 2.2 货币名目论..............................................................................................................................8 2.3 货币替代理论..........................................................................................................................9 2.4 两岸四地货币一体化研究综述............................................................................................10 3 欧洲货币一体化的实践....................................................................................................................14 3.1 欧元的形成............................................................................................................................14 3.2 欧元区内的政策协调............................................................................................................16 3.3 欧元区的成功与挑战............................................................................................................17 3.3.1 对欧元区经济的影响.................................................................................................. 17 3.3.2 对国际货币体系的影响.............................................................................................. 18 3.3.3 欧元区面临的挑战...................................................................................................... 19 4 两岸四地建立“人民币圈”的环境分析........................................................................................22 4.1 历史和政治层面....................................................................................................................22 4.2 经济和货币层面....................................................................................................................22 4.3 汇率制度层面........................................................................................................................23 4.3.1 香港的汇率制度.......................................................................................................... 23 4.3.2 澳门的汇率制度.......................................................................................................... 24 4.3.3 台湾的汇率制度.......................................................................................................... 24 4.4 小结 .......................................................................................................................................25 5 两岸四地建立“人民币圈”的可行性............................................................................................26 5.1 两岸四地经济和金融一体化程度........................................................................................26 5.1.1 经济一体化程度.......................................................................................................... 26 5.1.2 金融一体化程度.......................................................................................................... 31 5.1.3 小结 ............................................................................................................................. 32 5.2 两岸四地经济扰动对称性的实证分析................................................................................32 5.2.1 理论模型...................................................................................................................... 32 5.2.2 实证检验...................................................................................................................... 34 5.2.3 小结 ............................................................................................................................. 365.3 港澳台货币估值中的人民币因素研究................................................................................37 5.3.1 汇率相关性检验.......................................................................................................... 37 5.3.2 模型检验...................................................................................................................... 38 5.3.3 小结 ............................................................................................................................. 43 6 构建“人民币圈”的实现路径........................................................................................................44 6.1 基本原则 ...............................................................................................................................44 6.2 阶段目标和政策建议............................................................................................................45 6.2.1 提高人民币在跨境贸易及投资中的使用量.............................................................. 45 6.2.2 发展统一的货币市场和资本市场.............................................................................. 46 6.2.3 推进两岸四地货币融合.............................................................................................. 46 6.3 小结 .......................................................................................................................................48 7 本文结论与研究展望........................................................................................................................49 7.1 本文结论 ...............................................................................................................................49 7.2 研究展望 ...............................................................................................................................50