近年来，房地产行业发展迅速，已经成为我国国民经济的重要产业之一，房地产市场的健 康稳定发展对国民经济有着重要的意义。而对房地产开发商而言，房地产项目具有资金需求量 大、项目周期长、易受宏观经济形势及政策影响等特征，进行科学而全面的项目可行性分析是 规避风险、做出正确决策的依据。 本文在对项目投资经济和房地产可行性研究理论进行研究和自身实践工作的经验基础上， 对株洲领秀城房地产项目进行可行性研究，希望为房地产项目的合理有效开发和房地产开发企 业科学合理的决策提供参考和依据。本文首先从房地产可行性研究的内容和方法等方面介绍了 本文的理论基础。接下来，文章在对株洲领秀城房地产项目面临的宏观经济环境、全国和区域 房地产市场供需和城市建设环境等方面进行深入分析的基础上，确定出项目的总体布局和目标 客户群体。文章接着对项目的所需资金进行估算，并安排资金的来源和运用。最后，文章对项 目进行财务评价和不确定性分析，估算项目的销售收入、成本费用，编制财务报表，总结项目 的盈利能力、抗风险能力等；通过盈亏平衡分析，评价项目的风险大小。通过本文的分析，最 后得出的结论是株洲领秀城房地产项目的利润较高、风险较小，具有一定的投资价值。 做好株洲领秀城房地产项目的可行性分析，对完善房地产项目可行性研究的论证具有一定 的理论价值，对项目的顺利开展具有一定的实践意义。 关键词， 房地产项目 可行性分析 环境分析 经济分析II Abstract Real esate market has developed greatly in recent years, and it has become one of the important industries in china. The healthy and steady development of the real esate is qiute meaningful to the whole national economy. To the real estate enterprises, the real estate project has characteristics of huge need for money, long investment cycle, fragile to macroeconomic situation. So making a scientific feasibility research on real estate project is helpful fo avoiding risks and making the right decision. Based on the standard of the feasibility research of the real estate project, projects financial evaluation theorys and personal practical experience This paper is trying to make a feasibility research for the ZhuZhou Lingxiucheng Real Estate Project, hope to make a fundation and reference for the scientific investment decision. Firstly, we introduce the theorys and methods for the feasibility research. Then, we analyze the macroeconomic environment, national and local real estate market and constructing environment our project faces. Based on these analyses, we decide the overall layout and target market of this project. Then, we estimate the investment fund and the sources of capital, allocation of capital. At last, we make the finance evaluation and uncertainty analysis through estimating the sales income, cost and evaluate the risks level of our projest through break-even point analysis. We reached our final conclusion, our project will bring significant economic profits as well as social profits with low risk, and the project is feasible. Our study on the feasibility of ZhuZhou Lingxiucheng Real Estate Project supplies an important practical value for the development of the Project, but also supplies some references for other real estate enterprises. Key words: Real Estate Project Feasibility study Environmental analysis Economic analysisIII 目录 第 1 章 绪论 .................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景和研究意义 ......................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景 ................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................1 1.2 文献综述 ..........................................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外文献综述 ........................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内文献综述 ........................................................................................3 1.3 研究方法、主要内容和框架 ..........................................................................5 1.3.1 研究方法 ................................................................................................5 1.3.2 主要内容和思路框架 ............................................................................5 第 2 章 房地产项目可行性研究理论与方法概述 .....................................................8 2.1 房地产项目可行性研究的基本内容 .............................................................8 2.1.1 可行性研究的基本概念 .......................................................................8 2.1.2 房地产项目可行性研究的作用 ...........................................................9 2.1.3 房地产项目可行性研究的步骤 .........................................................10 2.1.4 房地产可行性研究遵循的原则 .......................................................... 11 2.2 房地产项目可行性研究报告的主要内容 ...................................................12 2.3 房地产项目可行性研究的若干分析方法 ....................................................13 2.3.1 房地产项目开发方案综合评价方法 .................................................14 2.3.2 房地产项目财务评价方法 .................................................................14 2.3.3 房地产项目不确定性分析方法 .........................................................15 第 3 章 株洲领秀城房地产开发项目的环境分析 .................................................17 3.1 项目开发的宏观环境分析 ............................................................................17 3.1.1 宏观经济环境分析 .............................................................................17 3.1.2 宏观政策环境分析 .............................................................................20 3.1.3 全国房地产市场发展情况 .................................................................20 3.1.4 株洲房地产市场供需分析 .................................................................23 3.2 项目建设地址及环境分析 ............................................................................25 3.2.1 项目地址 ..............................................................................................25 3.2.2 项目环境 ..............................................................................................25 3.3 项目总体规划 ................................................................................................25IV 3.4 项目市场定位研究 ........................................................................................26 3.4.1 项目的整体定位 ..................................................................................26 3.4.2 目标客户定位分析 ..............................................................................26 3.4.3 项目设计定位分析 ..............................................................................27 3.5 项目的 SWOT 分析 .......................................................................................28 3.5.1 优势分析 ..............................................................................................28 3.5.2 劣势分析 ..............................................................................................29 3.5.3 机会分析 ..............................................................................................29 3.5.4 威胁分析 ..............................................................................................29 第 4 章 株洲领秀城房地产开发项目的投资估算与资金运用 ...............................30 4.1 投资估算范围 ................................................................................................30 4.2 投资估算依据 ................................................................................................30 4.3 投资估算 ........................................................................................................30 4.3.1 开发成本估算 ......................................................................................30 4.3.2 开发费用估算 ......................................................................................32 4.3.3 项目的总投资估算 ..............................................................................32 4.4 资金的来源与运用 ........................................................................................35 4.4.1 资金的来源 ..........................................................................................35 4.4.2 资金的运用 ..........................................................................................35 第 5 章 株洲领秀城房地产开发项目的财务分析和不确定性分析 .......................37 5.1 项目的财务评价 ............................................................................................37 5.1.1 财务评价编制说明 ..............................................................................37 5.1.2 销售收入估算 ......................................................................................38 5.1.3 成本费用估算 ......................................................................................39 5.1.4 盈利能力分析 ......................................................................................39 5.2 项目不确定性分析 ........................................................................................40 5.2.1 盈亏平衡分析 ......................................................................................41 5.2.2 盈亏敏感性分析 ..................................................................................41 结论及建议 .................................................................................................................43