由于我国政府对房地产市场的调控政策，以及市场情况的变化，导致三四线城市库 存量巨大，部分二线城市也存在明显的供过于求，这给地产公司的项目开发带来严重的 周转危机，从而对公司的运营造成较大威胁。在此背景下，旭日公司土地拓展全面转向 一线城市，目前拟投建的宝山区美兰湖板块项目，将作为公司进驻上海房地产市场的敲 门砖，项目的成功将为旭日公司的进一步发展起到很好的推动作用。本商业计划书的目 的在于，通过对宏观因素和项目情况的分析得出 LD 项目具备投资价值的结论；为金融 机构投资 LD 项目提供决策支持。 本文以商业计划书的撰写模式，以 LD 项目为研究对象，结合各种分析工具对项目 进行了全面分析。首先用 PEST 分析法就 LD 项目所在地的政策、经济及社会因素等进 行了分析，并对 LD 项目所面临的市场状况进行了分析，由此得出 LD 项目开发具备较 好的宏观基础；其次采用 SWOT 分析法对 LD 项目所面临的优劣势、机会和威胁进行了 分析，通过分析得出 LD 项目具备明显的优势和良好的发展机遇；之后根据宏观环境和 LD 项目分析对项目开发做出刚需及刚改的定位，由此定位对产品设计进行了构思，整 体原则为在确保产品品质的基础上控制单价及总价，以满足相应客群所需；对于营销方 案，主旨在于充分调动社会上的专业机构，并由销售策划部统筹协调，销售执行上以传 统销售代理与新兴的网络平台销售相结合；作为重要内容的财务分析中，通过估测成本 投入、收入得出开发期内各年度的现金流量估测表，并通过 EXCEL 中财务函数求得净 现值（NPV）、内部收益率(IRR)等财务主要指标；最后对于 LD 项目所面临的各种风险， 包括，政策风险、土地获取风险及土地价格、销售价格的变动风险等进行了分析，同时 也对融资的退出机制进行了说明。 通过本文分析得出，LD 项目在折现率为 12%的情况下，项目的净现值为 21536 万 元>0；内部收益率为 36%>12%，由此可知项目的盈利能力较强，但项目开发不是一个 静态过程，土地获取及开发过程中还需动态控制，以获取最终收益。 关键词，商业计划书；房地产开发；风险控制；投资价值II Abstract Because of government regulation and control policies on the real estate market, as well as changes in market conditions, resulting in a huge amount of inventory tier cities, some second-tier cities are also significant oversupply, which brought a serious liquidity crisis in the real estate company's project development, thus The company's operating results for the larger threat. In this context, the rising land to expand the company's overall shift tier cities, are currently looking to cast the construction of Baoshan Meilan Lake Zone Project, will serve as the company entered the Shanghai real estate market a stepping stone to the success of the project will serve the further development of the company's very sun good role. The purpose of this business plan is to: through the analysis of macroeconomic factors and the status of projects with investment value of the project come LD conclusions; provide decision support for financial and investment institutions LD projects. In this paper, writing a business plan model to LD project for the study, combined with a variety of analysis tools to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the project. PEST analysis method first used on LD project location policy, economic and social factors were analyzed, and LD market conditions faced by the project were analyzed, it follows LD project development with good macroeconomic fundamentals; secondly use SWOT analysis of the LD facing the project strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats are analyzed, obtained through the analysis of LD project has obvious advantages and good opportunities for development; after LD according to the macroeconomic environment and project analysis made just need to project development and Just change the positioning, thereby positioning the product design was conceived, the overall principles for the control of the unit price and the total price to ensure product quality, based on the respective customer base in order to meet the required; for marketing programs, the thrust is to fully mobilize the community professional organizations, coordinated by the Ministry of sales planning, sales execution in the traditional sales agents and emerging network platform sales combined; as an important part of financialIII analysis, by estimating the cost of inputs, income derived each year development period Cash flow estimates table, and determined the net present value (NPV) by EXCEL financial function, internal rate of return (IRR) and other financial key indicators; and finally a variety of risks facing the project for LD include: policy risks, access to land Risk and land prices, selling price fluctuation risk were analyzed, but also on the exit mechanism of financing has been described. Through this analysis results, LD project at the discount rate of 12%, the net present value of the project is 215.36 million yuan> 0; internal rate of return of 36%> 12%, strong profitability seen projects , but the project development is not a static process, land acquisition and development process needs to dynamically control, to get the final gains. Keywords: The business plan;Real estate development; Risk control; Investment valueIV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ......................................................................................................................................II 图表清单.................................................................................................................................VII 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 商业计划书编制 ...................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 关于地产开发的研究 .............................................................................................. 2 1.3 研究方法与内容 ............................................................................................................. 4 第二章 项目区位及开发环境分析..........................................................................................7 2.1 项目区位及配套 ............................................................................................................. 7 2.1.1 项目区位 ................................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 周边配套 ................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 项目开发外部环境分析 ................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 政策因素分析 .......................................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 经济因素分析 .......................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 社会因素分析 ........................................................................................................ 11 2.2.4 技术因素分析 ........................................................................................................ 12 2.2.5 市场供应及需求分析 ............................................................................................. 12 2.3 项目开发内部环境分析 ............................................................................................... 19 2.3.1 项目开发优势分析 ................................................................................................ 19 2.3.2 项目开发劣势分析 ................................................................................................ 19 2.3.3 项目开发机遇分析 ................................................................................................ 20 2.3.4 项目开发竞争分析 ...................................................