深圳经济特区自建立以来，已取得有目共睹的巨大成就。特别是“十二五” 时期，深圳不仅取得经济快速腾飞，城市化进程也越发加快，城市空间呈现网状 的扩张和延伸，并由原来的四个行政区，扩展到八个行政区。因深圳经济特区设 立之初特区面积的狭小，以及原特区内外经济发展水平不同步、城市规划不统一 等因素，造成了城市空间资源极利用不均衡，城市用地被大量的城中村、老旧工 业区占据，城市发展受到了土地空间的严重制约，进而影响了城市整体的服务功 能和人们生活质量的提高。 在深圳市可供开发土地这一稀缺资源供应量日趋紧缩的背景下，通过对老旧 城区进行城市更新,来加快释放城市空间和促进产业功能的战略性优化，增加土 地储备，已成为深圳市破解土地困局的必由之路。在深圳市政府的主导下，进行 旧工业区升级改造已成为房地产建设领域投资建设的热门,但旧工业区改造项目 因面临工业区权属复杂、利益主体众多、市场需求变化快、以及政府政策不清晰 等因素，具有相对更高的风险和不可控因素,若无详实的市场调査、客观的可行 性研究，则更容易忽略对不可控风险因素的预判。 本文所采用实例研究的项目位于深圳市的龙岗区，是典型的旧工业区改造项 目。本文重点关注项目开发前期的投资决策阶段中的项目可行性研究，综合项目 管理理论、旧城改造理论的启示，通过深入研读本地政策，调查走访国内外同类 型改造项目，采用实例研究、对比分析已获批的项目数据，通过SWOT分析法等， 更直观项目所在区域的市场和宏观环境，对项目开发的产品形式进行准确市场定 位，进而对项目开展规划设计，并结合项目可能出现的不同容积率指标以及改变 产品业态配比，分别进行项目的投资测算。通过财务指标分析研判其经济效益、 风险因素和控制措施，综合论证项目投资的可行性，以此来为国内同类型旧工业 区改造项目的投资可行性研究提供一定的借鉴意义。 关键词，旧工业区改造，可行性研究，SWOT分析III ABSTRACT Since its establishment, Shenzhen Special Economic Zone has made great achievements. Especially during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period, Shenzhen not only achieved rapid economic take-off, but also speed up the process of urbanization. It extends to eight administrative districts from original four administrative districts, showing net expansion and extension. Shenzhen was small in size at the beginning, with synchronized economic development between urban and rural areas and lack of plan unification, which results in extremely unbalanced utilization of city space. Now its development is seriously restricted by land, which is largely occupied by numerous city villages and old industrial areas. The city's overall service function is affected and people's life quality is difficult to improve. With tightening effects on land supply, the only way to solve the land problem in Shenzhen is to drive the renewal of the old town, which can speed up the release of the urban space, promote industrial function of strategic optimization, and increase the land reserve. Under the dominance of Shenzhen government, old industrial upgrading has become a hot investment in the real estate construction field, but many difficulties also arise, such as complex industrial area ownership, many stakeholders, rapid changes in market demand, and uncertain policies, making it more risky and uncontrollable. Without detailed market survey and objective feasibility study, prediction of risk factors is more likely to be ignored. This thesis combines theory with practice and takes the project in Longgang District of Shenzhen as an example, which is a typical old industrial upgrading project. It also focuses on the feasibility study of prophase decision-making investment, exploring comprehensive project management. The local policies are studied and projects of the same type at home and abroad are investigated. With SWOT analysis, data from the approved project are comparatively analyzed to make accurate market positioning of the project product and then carry out the planning and design. Investment budgets are made respectively based on different possible volume rate index and changing ratios of product forms. In this thesis, the feasibility of project investment is comprehensively studied based on the analysis of financial index to evaluate the economic benefits, risk factors and control measures, so as to provide aIV certain reference for the same type of domestic investment on old industrial upgrading. KEY WORDS: Old industrial upgrading; Feasibility study; SWOT analysisV 目 录 第 1 章 绪论 ...............................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景..........................................................................................................1 1.2 研究意义..........................................................................................................2 1.2.1 理论意义.................................................................................................2 1.2.2 实践意义.................................................................................................2 1.3 研究数据资料和方法......................................................................................3 1.3.1 研究数据资料.........................................................................................3 1.3.2 研究方法.................................................................................................3 1.4 技术路线...........................................................................................................4 第 2 章 旧工业区改造相关理论综述 .......................................................................5 2.1 本文相关的名词解释.......................................................................................5 2.2 国内外旧工业区改造相关理论.......................................................................6 2.2.1 国外旧工业区改造相关理论.................................................................6 2.2.2 国内旧工业区改造相关理论.................................................................7 2.3 工业区改造模式...............................................................................................8 2.4 项目筹资方式研究...........................................................................................9 第 3 章 项目概况及改造动因分析 ...........................................................................11 3.1NH 工业区改造项目概况...............................................................................11 3.1.1 改造范围............................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 区域位置及周边环境...........................................................................12 3.1.3 项目现状建设特征...............................................................................13 3.1.4 现状周边配套设施...............................................................................14 3.2 改造规划依据和原则....................................................................................15 3.2.1 规划依据...............................................................................................15 3.2.2 规划原则...............................................................................................15 3.3 改造目标及方式............................................................................................15 3.3.1 改造方向和目标...................................................................................15 3.3.2 改造方式...............................................................................................16 第 4 章 NH 项目市场分析 ........................................................................................17 4.1 深圳市旧城改造相关政策.............................................................................17 4.1.1 深圳市关于旧城改造政策的三个阶段...............................................17VI 4.1.2 与本项目有关的规定...........................................................................17 4.2 宏观环境分析................................................................................................18 4.3 全市市场分析.................................................................................................20 4.3.1 商务市场表现及趋势..................................................................