盟固利动力科技有限公司（以后简称：盟固利公司）是一家从事新能源汽车 零部件——锂离子电池和模块开发、生产及销售的企业。尽管行业“朝阳”，企 业综合实力雄厚。但在盟固利公司生产计划体系中，却也存在着订单预测精度不 高、生产计划融合性差、重复修改和管理过程控制失效、能力不足等问题。且近 年来，随着盟固利公司的快速发展，订单的急速增长，问题、矛盾也就越来越突 出。所以，为了企业更好的生存与发展，改善盟固利公司生产计划体系中的不良 问题迫在眉睫。 本文以盟固利公司生产计划体系为研究对象，并对其现况进行了全面的整理 与分析。发现盟固利公司生产计划体系中存在诸多问题，经过归因分析发现，主 要是现有生产计划体系中计划的制定不准确，成因是订单预测（意向订单）和生 产计划编制规则不规范。其次，执行控制环节易失效，主要是工艺、质量以及过 程能力存在缺陷和不足。同时，辅助系统形同虚设（U8 只为财务部门服务）， 信息化、效率化工具不完善。 针对现行生产计划体系中存在的问题，本文以生产计划理论、供应链管理、 准时制以及 ERP 管理理论等为指导，运用时间序列法、德尔菲法、控制图等工具 优化改善订单预测（意向订单）和生产计划制定环节中的问题。其次，柔性改善 生产工艺、质量关键控制点和产能不足、浪费等问题，进而优化提升产品过程控 制的现况。最后通过辅助予公司新的 SAP 和 OA 系统，让流程执行更便捷，信息 传递更准确。降低成本的同时，提高企业工作效率。 另外，本文又进一步制定了保障方案、评估措施。不仅有效验证了后期方案 执行的效果，也为本方案良好的落实加以巩固。同样，也为有类似问题的企业提 供了参考和学习经验的资料。 关键词：生产计划，优化，预测，安全库存II Study on Optimization of Production Planning System of Mengguli Company Abstract Mengguli Power Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as: Mengguli Company) is a company engaged in the development, production and sales of lithium-ion batteries and modules for new energy automotive components. Despite of emergent and strong comprehensive strength of the enterprise, there are many problems of the production planning system of Mengguli Company, such as low order prediction accuracy, poor integration of production plans, failure of repeated modification and management process control, and inadequate capacity. And in recent years, with the rapid development of Mengguli Company and the rapid growth of orders, problems and contradictions are becoming more and more prominent. Therefore, it is urgent to solve the unhealthy problems in the production planning system of Mengguli Company for better survival and development. This paper takes the production planning system of Mengguli Company as main research object, and makes a comprehensive arrangement and analysis of its current situation. It is found that there are many problems in the production planning system of Mengguli Company.Through attribution analysis, it is found that the main reason is the inaccuracy of planning in the existing production plan system, also the order forecasting (intent order) and production plan formulation rules are not standardized. Secondly, the executive control links are easy to fail, mainly due to the defects and deficiencies of process, quality and process capability. At the same time, the auxiliary system is virtual (U8 only serves the financial department), and the tools of informatization and efficiency are not perfect. In view of the problems existing in the current production planning system, guided by production planning theory, supply chain management, punctuality system and ERP management theory, this paper uses time series method, Delphi method, control chart and other tools to optimize and improvement of order forecasting (intention order) and production planning. Secondly, be flexible over the issues in production process, key quality control points, insufficient capacity, waste and so on, then optimize and enhance the status of product process control. Finally, through theIII auxiliary to the company's new SAP and OA systems, make the process execution more convenient and make information transmission more accurate, and reduce costs while improving the efficiency of the enterprise. Additionally, this paper has further formulated the safeguard plan and evaluation measures. Not only effectively verified the effectiveness of the late-stage program implementation, but also for the good implementation of the case to consolidate. Also, information on reference and learning experiences could be provided to enterprises with similar problems. Key words: production planning;optimization;prediction;safe inventoryIV 目 录 中文摘要...................................................................................................... I Abstract......................................................................................................................II 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景及意义.........................................................................................1 1.2 研究的内容.....................................................................................................2 第二章 相关理论及分析工具简述....................................................................4 2.1 供应链管理理论.............................................................................................4 2.2 生产计划理论.................................................................................................4 2.3 ERP 理论..........................................................................................................6 2.4 准时制理论.....................................................................................................6 2.5 分析工具简述..................................................................................................8 第三章 盟固利公司生产计划体系现况分析................................................10 3.1 公司简介.......................................................................................................10 3.2 公司现行生产计划体系现况.......................................................................11 3.3 公司现行生产计划体系中存在的问题.......................................................13 3.4 公司现行生产计划体系中问题的成因分析................................................14 第四章 盟固利公司生产计划体系优化方案设计......................................22 4.1 优化方案设计的原则与思路.......................................................................22 4.2 订单预测与生产计划制定环节的优化.......................................................24 4.3 生产计划体系控制环节的优化...................................................................36 4.4 辅助系统的介入及优化设计.......................................................................50 第五章 盟固利公司生产计划体系优化方案保障与评价措施...............53 5.1 方案实施的保障...........................................................................................53 5.2 优化后的持续评估.......................................................................................56V 第六章 结论与展望..............................................................................................59 6.1 结论...............................................................................................................59 6.2 展望...............................................................................................................60