据世界卫生组织的资料称，一个国家的老年人口系数达到 10 以上（60 岁以上人口） 或 7（65 岁以上人口）时，标志着这个国家或地区进入老年型。目前，我国 60 岁以上 老年人口已达 1.3 亿多，占全世界老年人口的五分之一，占全国总人口的 10%以上。到 21 世纪中叶将超过 4 亿，占全国总人口的 28%，即每 4 个人中就有一位老年人；预测 我国 65 岁以上老年人数将从 2000 年的 0.94 亿（占总人口的 7.3%）增加到 2050 年的 3.34 亿（占总人口的 22.6%），我国已成为老龄化速度最快，老年人口最多的国家。有 关资料显示，我国现有 2360 多万老年人“独守空巢”。随着人口老龄化的来临，老年 人问题已成为一个世界问题，同样也是我国面临的一个严峻问题。广东省也和全国一样 老龄化程度为 10 以上。老龄化问题涉及到社会养老福利实施问题，关于社会稳定问题， 关于国家经济发展大计。广东省各级政府近几年都在关注、研究这个课题，想方法减少 老龄化问题给经济发展带来的负面影响，其中有一条拟定政策就是推迟退休，并大力兴 建老人院解决社会养老服务问题，试图解决社会发展的后顾之忧。 本文结合社会实际情况从广东省乡镇、县城、省城各级城市的老人院建设现状和发 展规划进行研究，通过大量的现场调查研究及参考政府部门的有关参考资料，重点分析 了广州市天河区一个大型老人院建设情况，从社会养老福利和发挥的积极意义多角度进 行分析，充分论证其可行性，希望该文有一定的参考价值，为今后我国老人院项目的建 设提供些可借鉴的作用。并借此，呼吁大家发挥我国“尊老爱幼”的优良传统，关爱老 人，建设美好和谐的社会主义，很有积极的社会现实意义。 关键词，老龄化；老人院；经济发展II Abstract According to the WHO information, coefficient of aged population of a country to reach more than 10 (population over the age of 60) or 7 (population over the age of 65), marking the country or area entered old age. At present, China's elderly population over the age of 60 has reached 1.3 million, accounting for 1/5 of the elderly population in the world, accounting for 10% of the total population of more than. By the middle of twenty-first Century will be more than 400000000, accounting for 28% of the total population, that is, every 4 people have an old man; prediction of older persons is 65 years and over in China from 2000 to 94000000 (7.3% of the total population) increased to 334000000 in 2050 (22.6% of the total population), our country has become the aged the speed of the fastest, most countries in the elderly population. Relevant data shows, our country has about 23600000 only guard empty nest elderly. With the aging of the population comes, the problems of the elderly has become a global problem, a serious problem is also faced by our country. Guangdong province is the same and the national aging degree is more than 10. The aging problem relates to social pension welfare implementation issues on social stability, on the national economy development. Governments at all levels in Guangdong province in recent years are concerned, the study of this subject, the negative influence to bring method to reduce the aging problems for the economy development, which has a policy is to delay the retirement, and vigorously to build homes for the elderly to solve social endowment service problems, try to solve the worries of social development. In this paper, combined with the actual situation of the social studies and the development planning of elderly construction status of Guangdong province township, county, provincial capital cities at all levels of the relevant reference, through lots of field investigation and reference of government departments, focusing on analysis of Guangzhou City, Tianhe District, a large elderly home construction, carries on the analysis from the positive significance of old-age social welfare and to play the multi angle, fully demonstrated its feasibility, hope this paper has certain reference value for the future construction projects in our country, homes for the elderly to provide some reference effect. And this, call on everyone to play to China's care for the young the fine tradition of caring for the elderly, to build a harmonious socialism,it is the positive social significance. Key words: Aging; nursing home; economic development;III 目录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... II 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 问题的提出...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究的方法...................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 国内外养老院状况.......................................................................................................... 1 1.3.1 国外养老院状况........................................................................................................ 1 1.3.2 国内养老院状况........................................................................................................ 2 第二章 广东省老人院建设的基本情况..................................................................................4 2.1 广东省某县的乡镇老人院调查情况.............................................................................. 4 2.1.1 某镇敬老院情况....................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 存在问题................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 广东省某县城老人院...................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 基本情况................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 未来规划................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 广州市天河区某老人院建设基本情况.......................................................................... 9 2.3.1 项目摘要................................................................................................................... 9 2.3.2 建设内容与规模....................................................................................................... 9 2.3.3 建设地点................................................................................................................. 12 第三章 项目建设的必要性和可行性....................................................................................14 3.1 广州市老龄事业发展规划及布局................................................................................ 14 3.1.1 广州市老龄事业发展第十二个五年规划（2011-2015）.................................... 14 3.1.2 广州市养老设施布局............................................................................................. 14 3.2 养老机构情况................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.1 广州市养老机构现状及规划................................................................................. 14 3.2.2 天河区老龄化人口现状......................................................................................... 15 3.2.3 天河区养老服务体系建设现状............................................................................. 16 3.2.4 2013 年广州市养老机构床位预计动工建设情况................................................. 18IV 3.2.5 2013-2015 年广州市各区（县级市）养老机构床位增长预测............................ 18 3.3 项目提出的理由和过程................................................................................................ 19 3.4 项目建设的必要性........................................................................................................ 20 3.4.1 是进一步落实国家、地方对老人福利事业方针政策的需要............................. 20 3.4.2 是填补目前天河区公办老年福利机构空白的需要......