财务风险预警是通过收集企业财务运作中的相关数据，发现运营过程中可能 存在或已存在的问题，有效预测企业的财务危机程度，使企业管理者能够采取适 当有效的措施来缓解或降低财务风险，以期应对潜在的财务危机，进而改善和提 高业务管理质量。 由于不同行业甚至同一行业之间的差异越来越明显，传统的预警指标体系和 预警模型已不能满足企业的需求。为此，本文在财务风险相关理论指导下，比较 了一系列财务风险识别方法的优点与不足，选择以恒康医疗集团股份有限公司 （简称“恒康医疗”）作为研究范例，应用改进的功效系数法对恒康医疗进行了 财务风险综合评价。 在概述了恒康医疗公司基本情况下，从盈利能力，偿债能力，运营能力和发 展能力四个层面，结合相同行业的四家医药公司进行了对比分析，确定了恒康医 疗财务风险评估指标体系；通过相关性分析以及改进的功效系数法，构建适用该 企业的财务风险预警模型，用于分析恒康医疗在水平和垂直方向的财务风险，并 用该公司近 5 年的财务数据验证了模型的有效性。结果表明，恒康医疗的财务风 险自上市以来逐年增加，尤其在 2016、2017 两年各项指标下滑明显，需要引起 公司足够的重视。此外，根据其各个环节和公司的整体风险状况，给出了相应的 风险防范对策。 关键词：财务风险，风险预警，功效系数法兰州大学硕士学位论文 恒康医疗集团股份有限公司财务风险预警分析研究 III ANALYSISAND RESEARCH ON FINANCIAL RISK WARNING OF HENGkANG MEDICAL GROUPCO., LTD. Abstract The financial risk warning is to collect the relevant data in the financial operation of the enterprise, discover the problems that may exist or exist in the operation process, and effectively predict the financial crisis degree of the enterprise. To this end, the managers can take appropriate and effective measures to mitigate or reduce financial risks in order to cope with potential financial crises, thereby improving the quality of business management. Due to the increasingly obvious differences between different industries or even within the same industry, the pre-existing early-warning indicator systems and early- warning models can no longer meet the needs of enterprises. This paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of a series of financial risk identification methods with the guidance of financial risk-related theory. Hengkang Medical Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as Hengkang Medical) was selected as a research example, and the improved efficacy coefficient method was applied to comprehensively evaluate the financial risks of Hengkang Medical. After outlining the basic situation of Hengkang Medical, this paper selects four levels ofprofitability, debt payingability,operation abilityanddevelopment ability,and determines the financial risk assessment index system of Hengkang Medical through the comparative analysis of four pharmaceutical companies in the same industry. Through the correlation analysis and the improved efficiency coefficient method, the financial risk early-warning model of Hengkang Medical is constructed to decipher the horizontal and vertical financial risks, and financial data of Hengkang Medical for five years was utilized to verify the validity of the model. The results shown that, the company needs to take more attention because the financial risk of Hengkang Medical has increased year by year since its listing, and the indicators of financial risk declined significantly, especially in 2016 and 2017. Moreover, the author gives the corresponding risk prevention countermeasures based on the company's risk situation. Keywords: financial risk, risk warning, efficacy coefficient method兰州大学硕士学位论文 恒康医疗集团股份有限公司财务风险预警分析研究 IV 目 录 中文摘要................................................II Abstract ............................................... III 第一章 绪论 ..............................................1 1.1 研究背景及研究意义..........................................1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................3 1.2 研究内容与研究问题..........................................3 1.2.1 研究内容................................................3 1.2.2 研究问题................................................4 1.3 研究方法与论文结构..........................................5 1.3.1 研究方法................................................5 1.3.2 论文结构................................................5 第二章 财务风险预警相关理论概述 ..........................8 2.1 财务风险预警理论............................................8 2.1.1 风险管理理论............................................8 2.1.2 财务风险预警理论........................................8 2.1.3 非均衡理论..............................................9 2.1.4 功效系数法基础理论......................................9 2.2 财务风险预警的基本方法.....................................10 2.2.1 定性预警分析方法.......................................10 2.2.2 定量预警分析方法.......................................11 2.3 财务预警国内外研究情况.....................................13 2.3.1 国外研究情况...........................................13 2.3.2 国内研究情况...........................................14兰州大学硕士学位论文 恒康医疗集团股份有限公司财务风险预警分析研究 V 2.3.3 文献评述...............................................15 第三章 恒康医疗财务风险现状分析 .........................16 3.1 恒康医疗基本情况...........................................16 3.1.1 基本情况...............................................16 3.1.2 业务状况...............................................16 3.1.3 财务状况...............................................17 3.1.4 员工状况...............................................19 3.2 恒康医疗财务风险现状.......................................19 3.2.1 筹资风险方面...........................................19 3.2.2 投资风险方面...........................................20 3.2.3 经营活动风险方面.......................................21 3.3 恒康医疗财务风险存在的问题.................................22 3.3.1 商誉过高...............................................22 3.3.2 资金周转风险...........................................22 3.3.3 公司经营管理层治理能力欠缺.............................22 第四章 恒康医疗财务风险预警模型构建 .....................24 4.1 财务风险预警模型构建的原则和步骤...........................24 4.1.1 财务评价指标的选取原则.................................24 4.1.2 恒康医疗建立财务风险预警系统的必要性...................24 4.1.3 财务风险评价指标体系的设计.............................25 4.2 恒康医疗财务风险识别因素...................................30 4.2.1 内部风险因素...........................................30 4.2.2 外部风险因素...........................................31 4.3 恒康医疗基本经营状况分析...................................31 4.3.1 企业盈利能力分析.......................................32 4.3.2 企业偿债能力分析.......................................36兰州大学硕士学位论文 恒康医疗集团股份有限公司财务风险预警分析研究 VI 4.3.3 企业营运能力分析.......................................41 4.3.4 企业发展能力分析.......................................47 4.4 基于功效系数法的预警模型构建...............................51 4.4.1 功效系数法评价指标的改进...............................51 4.4.2 功效系数法指标权重的确定...............................52 4.4.3 评价标准值的确定.......................................52 4.4.4 预警警限的确定.........................................52 4.5 恒康医疗财务风险预警模型检验...............................53 4.5.1 单项财务指标实际值计算.................................54 4.5.2 各财务指标评价指数的计算...............................54 第五章 恒康医疗财务风险预警模型应用实施 .................61 5.1 恒康医疗财务风险警情分析...................................61 5.1.1 盈利能力警情分析.......................................61 5.1.2 偿债能力警情分析.......................................62 5.1.3 运营能力警情分析.......................................62 5.1.4 发展能力警情分析.......................................62 5.2 恒康医疗财务风险防范对策...................................63 5.2.1 外部风险控制措施.......................................63 5.2.2 内部风险控制措施.........................