摘要 克拉玛依电厂作为克拉玛依电网主力电厂,由于缺乏备用装机容量,而且设 备陈旧,年运行期过长,在负荷高峰季节均处在运行状态,几乎没有备用发电机 组,已很难保证油田用电可靠性的要求随着电力需求的发展,网内负荷的峰谷 差将逐年扩大,这就要求增加克拉玛依电厂调峰能力显然,以热定电的热电机 组是不宜参加调峰的,凝汽式火电机组因受锅炉运行的限制,调峰能力也不大 为了提高克拉玛依电厂供电能力,保证克拉玛依地区正常生产和居民日常生活的 需要,对克拉玛依电厂进行技术改造和扩建已迫在眉睫 本文从克拉玛依电厂的实际出发,采用理论与实践相结合的研究方法,详实 地分析了企业扩建项目的可行性在研究了可行性研究的相关理论的基础上,论 文从建设规模!场址选择!组织机构!人力资源等方面对拟建项目概况进行了设 计,然后结合可行性研究的方法和程序,运用现代工程学!经济学和管理科学理 论从市场预测!技术方案设计!项目的经济评价和项目风险四个方面对项目的可 行性进行了分析,对克拉玛依电网电力负荷的发展进行了预测,并对项目的投资 估算和投产后的财务效益进行了评价论证,同时对项目的风险因素进行了分析, 运用敏感性分析等方法进行了风险评价,得出了克拉玛依电厂扩建工程项目可行 的结论,并提出了实施建议 关键词:可行性研究,电厂扩建项目,财务评价重庆大学硕士学位报告英文摘要 ABSTRACT KaramayPowerPlanttakesKaramayEleetriealnetworkasMainPowerPlant,not onlyguaranteereliabilityrequestoftheKaramay011Field,moreovertoguaranteethe inereasesofKaramayeleetriealnetworkeveryyear.AtPresent,notoulytheKaramay PowerPlantlacksthesPareeapaeity,moreovertheequiPment15obsolcte,esPeeiallyin theloadPeakseason.lt15verydiffieulttoguarantedthatthereliablerequestofthe011 field.hioulertoimProvethereliabilityofKaramayPowerPlantPowersuPpl% gUaranteedthattheKara们nayProductionandtheresidentdailylife,5need,theextension ProjectiontotheKaramayPowerPlant15tobeinunlnent. InthisPaper,aeeoulingtotherealityofKaramayPowerPlantinandusingthe methodofPractieingwiththeory,thefeasibilityoftheProjectenterpriseextensionwas analyZedindctail.Afterstud外ngtherelevanttheoriesofeasibility,theProPosedProjeet wasanalyZedfromthesealeofeonstrUetion,siteseleetion,organizationalstrUeture, humanresourees,andotherasPeetsofProfiles,andtheneombiningthemethodsand Proceduresoffeasibilitystudy,usingmodemengineering,economiesandmanagernent seieneetheories,theProjectfeasibilitywasanalyZedfromfourasPeetsasthemarket foreeasts,teehnologyProgramdesign,theProject,5economieevaluationandProjeetrisk, thePresPeetiveofthedeveloPmentofKaramayPowerPlant幼d,andtheProjeet inves加entandthefinaneialbenefitswereevaluated,atthesametime,theriskfactors oftheProjeetwasanalyZed,usingsensitivityanalysismethod,theriskoftheProjeetwas assessed,thentheeonelusionsofthefeasibilityofKar出nayPowerPlant.5exPansion wasdedueed,andeoncernedimPlementationadvieewasProPosed. Keyword:FeasibilityStudy;PowerExtension;FinaneialEvaluation重庆大学硕士学位报告目录 目录 中文摘要..................................................................................................................................一I 英文摘要..............,............................................................................................................11 1绪论..................................................,...............................................................................1 1.1选题的背景和意义............................一.....................................,...............................l 1.2国内外可行性研究发展概况综述.................................,...,...............................2 1.2.1国外可行性研究发展概况..................................................................................2 1.2.2国内可行性研究发展概况.....................-..................................................-,4 1.3报告的研究内容............................................,..................................................!,5 2可行性研究理论综述...............,.............................................................................7 2.1可行性研究的概念.........................................................................................................7 2.2可行性研究的作用.........................................................................................................7 2.3可行性研究的依据和要求.............................................................................................8 2.3.1可行性研究的依据..............................................................................................8 2.3.2可行性研究的要求..........-................,......................................................8 2.4可行性研究的阶段划分..........................................................................,................8 2.5可行性研究的主要内容.......................,...................................................................9 3克拉玛依电力市场需求预测..,-...........................................................................n 3.1市场预测...................................................,..,....................................................11 3.1.1市场预测的意义..............-.........................................一..............................-.11 3.1.2市场预测的过程..............!...........................................................................11 3.1.3市场预测的内容..............................................................................................,.12 3.1.4市场预测的方法.........,............,...............................................13 3.2克拉玛依电力现状分析......................................................................,..................巧 3.2.1克拉玛依电网现状............................................................................................巧 3.2.2克拉玛依电源现状............................................................................................16 3.2.3克拉玛依电力供需平衡现状分析.....,.................................................,16 3.3克拉玛依电力发展预测...............................................................................................17 3.3.1分类预测法........................................................................................................17 3.3.2电力弹性系数法.......................................................................,..................22 3.3.3两种预测方法的比较...............................................................-................!.24 3.4克拉玛依电厂扩建对改善克拉玛依电力现状的意义分析.......................................24重庆大学硕士学位报告目录 4克拉玛依电厂扩建工程项目方案的总体框架设计.................................25 4.1建设规模.......................................................................................................................25 4.2场址选择......................,..........................................................................................26 4.2.1项目选址............................................................................................................26 4.2.2厂区条件-...........................................................................................................26 4.3技术及设备方案...........................................................................................................27 4.3.1技术及设备方案选择概述...,..........................................................27 4.3.2项目的技术及设备方案....................................................................................28 4.3.3推荐方案..........................................................................................................30 4.4组织机构与人力资源配置-..........................................................................................30 4.4.1组织机构与人力资源配置概述........................................................................30 4.4.2项目企业组织机构及人员安排.........-........................................................31 4.5进度管理.......................................................................................................................32 4.5.1进度管理流程概述............................................................................................32 4.5.2项目的进度管理......................................................................