本文所研究的广州 GD 广场项目是一个投资额高达 15 亿元人民币的房地产开发投 资项目，科学合理地对项目进行可行性分析和商业策划，是其能否成功获得投资及其收 益的关键，也是将来进行项目运作，防范项目风险的需要。 本文采用理论与实践相结合的方法对项目进行研究，在项目计划和组织部分，运用 战略理论，在分析项目环境的基础上，提出项目计划和组织；在市场研究部分，以行业 生命周期理论为基础，结合本项目的具体经营模式，逐步分析地下停车位、商场、高级 公寓三种产品的市场需求、竞争对手、市场价格，并提出相应营销策略，在商铺招商模 式设计中，以共生理论为指导进行招商策略设计。 本文分为六章，具体内容如下： 第一章是绪论，包括：研究的背景和意义；文献综述；研究的方法与基本思路；研 究内容和报告结构。 第二章是项目概况，本章介绍了项目建设单位的基本情况，并对项目进行了详细的 介绍，包括项目的建设内容、项目的宗旨以及项目的特色。 第三章是项目的计划与组织，本章运用战略基本理论，提出了项目的战略目标及实 施战略的措施，同时介绍了项目的运作计划、管理团队以及组织结构。 第四章是项目的市场研究与营销策略设计，本章首先分析了广州市经济发展与房地 产市场发展的态势，其次根据宏观和微观经济环境分析了项目的市场需求，然后根据行 业生命周期理论得出广州市房地产行业正处于一个新的成长期，最后根据成长期行业的 发展特点，制订出相应营销策略。 第五章是项目经济效益预测与分析，本章综合前面几章的内容，得出财务分析的基 础数据，然后依据基础数据对项目进行财务分析，得出项目可行的结论。 第六章是项目的风险分析及对策，分析了项目的政策风险、市场风险、经营风险及 资金风险，并提出了防范风险的对策。 本商业计划书已得到项目投资方的认可，目前已完成规划设计工作，进入到工程施 工阶段。 关键词：商业计划书；营销策略；财务评价；风险分析Abstract Guangzhou GD square, studied in this paper, is a real estate project whose investment is up to 1.5 billion yuan. Scientific and rational analysis of business plan of the project is the key to access to investment, and also to operation the project and against the risks. This paper combined theory with practice to research the project. In the part of planning and organization, strategic theory has been used to proposed planning and organization of the project; in the part of market research, basing on industry life cycle theory and combining with specific business model of the project, the market demand, competition and market's prices of underground parking, shopping malls and apartments have been analyze respectively, and also the corresponding marketing strategy proposed. This paper combined theory with practice to research the project. In the part of planning and organization, strategic theory has been used to proposed planning and organization of the project; in the part of market research, basing on industry life cycle theory and combining with specific business model of the project, the market demand, competition and market's prices of underground parking, shopping malls and apartments have been analyze respectively, and also the corresponding marketing strategy proposed. Symbiosis theory has been used to guide shops investment. This paper is divided into five chapters, its structure as follows: The first chapter is an introduction, including three aspects: First, to examine the background and significance; second, literature review; Third, research methods and basic ideas. Chapter II is about profile of the project. This chapter introduced the basic situation of corporation who construct the project, and a detailed description of the project including construction of the project content, project objectives and project characteristics. Chapter III is about planning and organization of the project. The basic strategic theory used in this chapter in order to propose strategic objectives and implementation strategic measure of the project. And the project’s operational plan, management team and organizational structure also were introduced. Chapter IV is about the project's market research and marketing strategy design. This chapter first analyzes the Guangzhou's Economic Development and real estate market development trend; secondly, on the basis of macro-and micro-economic environment analyzes the market demand of the project; thirdly, according to the industry life cycle recognize the Guangzhou's real estate industry at a new growth period. Finally, according to the characteristics of the industry growth stage make out corresponding marketing strategy.Chapter V is about economic forecast and analysis of the project. The basic data of financial analysis has been obtained in this chapter combining with front chapters, and then make out the project feasible conclusion base on the project's financial analysis. Chapter VI is about the risk analysis and measures of the project. The project’s policy risk, market risk, operational risk and liquidity risk be analyzed respectively, and also the corresponding prevent risks be proposed. Keywords: Business plan; Marketing strategy; Financial evaluation; Risk analysis目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表目录.................................................................................................................................VII 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景和意义.......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 研究方法和基本思路...................................................................................................... 4 1.4 研究内容及报告结构...................................................................................................... 4 第二章 项目概况....................................................................................................................7 2.1 建设单位及项目简介...................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 建设单位情况介绍................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 GD 广场项目介绍 ..................................................................................................... 7 2.2 项目宗旨.......................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 项目建设内容.................................................................................................................. 8 2.4 项目特色与竞争力分析................................................................................................. 9 2.4.1 项目特色................................................................................................................... 9 2.4.2 竞争力分析............................................................................................................... 9 2.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 10 第三章 项目的计划与组织.................................................................................................... 11 3.1 项目发展战略................................................................................................................ 11 3.1.1 经济状态的战略分析原理..................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 战略目标................................................................................................................. 13 3.1.3 战略措施................................................................................................................. 14 3.2 运作计划........................................................................................................................ 14 3.3 管理团队及组织结构.................................................................................................... 15 3.3.1 管理团队................................................................................................................. 153.3.2 组织结构................................................................................................................. 15 3.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 16 第四章 项目的市场研究与营销策略设计..........................................................................17 4.1 产业态势与发展趋势.................................................................................................... 17 4.2 市场需求预测与分析.................................................................................................... 19 4.2.1 大型购物中心需求分析......................................................................................... 21 4.2.2 餐饮、娱乐市场需求分析..................................................................................... 22 4.2.3 精品专卖店需求分析............................................................................................. 23 4.2.4 公寓式住宅需求分析............................................................................................. 23 4.2.5 地下停车场市场需求分析..................................................................................... 24 4.3 价格预测与分析............................................................................................................ 25 4.3.1 大型购物中心铺面出租价格................................................................................. 25 4.3.2 餐饮、娱乐铺面出租价格..................................................................................... 25 4. .3 精品专卖店铺面出租价格..................................................................................... 25 4.3.4 公寓式住宅销售价格............................................................................................. 25 4.3.5 地下停车场出租价格............................................................................................. 25 4.4 主要竞争对手分析........................................................................................................ 26 4.4.1 区域内商业中心竞争对手分析............................................................................. 26 4.4.2 区域内住宅产品竞争对手分析............................................................................. 27 4.5 营销策略设计................................................................................................................ 29 4.5.1 行业周期分析......................................................................................................... 29 4.5.2 商铺招商模式设计................................................................................................. 31 4.5.3 住宅销售模式设计................................................................................................. 33 4.6 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 36 第五章 项目经济效益预测及分析........................................................................................37 5.1 投资估算........................................................................................................................ 37 5.1.1 工程投资估算......................................................................................................... 37 5.1.2 投入资金估算......................................................................................................... 42 5.2 财务效益预测分析........................................................................................................ 42 5.2.1 财务效益预测......................................................................................................... 42 35.2.2 预测结果................................................................................................................. 64 5.2.3 敏感性分析............................................................................................................. 65 5.3 筹资方案及资本退出方式............................................................................................ 66 5.3.1 筹资方案................................................................................................................. 66 5.3.2 资本退出方式设计................................................................................................. 67 5.4 社会效益分析................................................................................................................ 67 5.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 67 第六章 项目风险分析及对策..............................................................................................68 6.1 风险分析........................................................................................................................ 68 6.1.1 政策风险................................................................................................................. 68 6.1.2 市场风险................................................................................................................. 68 6.1.3 经营风险................................................................................................................. 68 6.1.4 资金风险................................................................................................................. 68 6.1.5 法律风险................................................................................................................. 69 6.2 风险防范对策................................................................................................................ 69 6.2.1 政策风险防范......................................................................................................... 69 6.2.2 市场风险防范......................................................................................................... 69 6.2.3 经营风险防范......................................................................................................... 69 6.2.4 融资风险防范......................................................................................................... 69 6.2.5 法律风险防范......................................................................................................... 70 6.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 70 结 论........................................................................................................................................71