随着我国社会经济的快速发展，我国交通建设也不断加快着脚步，公路交 通迎来快速发展时期。公路建设离不开可行性研究工作，做好可行性研究有三 个重要内容，即交通量需求预测、技术方案研究和经济评价。而交通量需求预 测是技术方案研究和经济评价的一个基础，所以交通量需求预测则是可行性研 究的一个核心环节。由于目前有关公路建设可行性研究中有关交通量需求预测 方面的工作存在有待改进的地方，本文基于此对其进行研究。 首先，从社会经济、人口、城市发展及交通战略、环境资源及土地利用等 方面着手，分析了影响公路交通需求预测的因素。 其次，采用经典的四阶段模型，即交通生成、交通分布、交通方式划分及 交通分配等四个方面。研究了公路可行性研究中交通需求预测方法和模型。 再次，通过引入 Trans CAD 软件平台，从小区划分基本原理着手，提出虚 拟小区的概念，同时对质心连杆的连接方法进行了研究，最终提出了基于 Trans CAD 的公路可行性研究预测方法。 最后，以青岛市新疆高架路和北京市发展路为例，进行了案例分析。 关键词，Trans CAD，公路建设，交通需求，可行性研究- ABSTRACT Nowdays, with the rapid development of economic, traffic problems are becoming more and more serious. The use of cars also become frequent. The feasibility study has three important functions: the traffic demand forecasting, research about economic evaluation and technology programs. Firstly the forecasting of traffic demand is a basis for the forecast of traffic demand .Secondly the research of technology programs and economic evaluation, because the traffic demand forecast is a important part of the feasibility study. Due to the current feasibility study about road-building works where there still has a room for further improvement, this paper are mainly based on this. . Firstly, putting eyes on some aspects such as the socio-economic, population, urban development; transportation strategies, environmental resources and land use to analyze the impact factors of road traffic demand forecasting. Secondly, using the classical four-stage model-- namely traffic generation, traffic distribution, transportation and traffic distribution. Study the feasibility of road traffic demand forecasting methods and models. Thirdly, through the introduction of Trans CAD software platform, proceeding from the basic principles of cell division, it proposed the concept of virtual community, but to confront the heart of the connecting rod connection method has also been studied, and ultimately proposed Trans CAD-based prediction of highway feasibility study. Finally, making the road of Qingdao and Xinjiang as a example, do a case study to prove the theory. Keywords，Trans CAD; highway construction; traffic demand; feasibility study目 录 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................1 1.1 课题背景 ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究的目的和意义 ...................................................................................... 1 1.3 国内外研究现状分析 .................................................................................. 2 1.4 本文主要研究工作 ...................................................................................... 4 第二章 公路交通需求影响因素分析 .....................................................................6 2.1 社会经济发展方面 ...................................................................................... 6 2.2 土地利用和资源 .......................................................................................... 7 2.3 城市规划方面 .............................................................................................. 8 2.4 政策方面 ...................................................................................................... 9 第三章 公路交通需求预测模型 ...........................................................................10 3.1 交通生成模型 ............................................................................................ 10 3.2 交通分布模型 ............................................................................................ 11 3.3 交通方式划分 ............................................................................................ 14 3.4 交通分配模型 ............................................................................................ 14 第四章 公路建设可行性研究需求软件实现 .......................................................21 4.1 TRANSCAD 软件平台介绍 ..................................................................... 21 4.2 交通区虚拟划分 ........................................................................................ 23 4.3 质心连杆选择方法 .................................................................................... 24 4.4 软件实现基本步骤 .................................................................................... 27 第五章 青岛市新疆高架路交通需求分析 ...........................................................28 5.1 基础资料调查分析 .................................................................................... 28 5.2 交通生成预测 ............................................................................................ 34 5.3 交通分布预测 ............................................................................................ 38 5.4 交通分配预测 ............................................................................................ 41 第六章 北京市发展路交通需求分析 ...................................................................43 6.1 项目背景 .................................................................................................... 43 6.2 交通区划分 ................................................................................................ 43 6.3 交通生成预测 ............................................................................................ 446.4 交通分布预测 ............................................................................................ 46 6.5 交通方式划分预测 .................................................................................... 46 6.6 交通分配预测 ............................................................................................ 47 6.7 交通需求预测结果 .................................................................................... 47 第七章 结论............................................................................................................49 7.1 主要研究成果和总结 ................................................................................ 49 7.2 主要创新点 ................................................................................................ 50