随着我国网络、电子信息等技术的飞速发展，各行各业都被数字化浪潮 所侵袭，出版业更是面临着数字化转型的严峻考验。国家从十一五期间就开 始提出出版企业向数字化转型的导向趋势，到了十二五期间更是将数字化出 版提上日程，在此期间科学出版社在国家的倡导下迅速转制成功，并合并重 组成立出版集团企业甚至计划成为上市公司，借此来集中资源和力量发展数 字化出版项目。 项目可行性研究是评价项目是否进行投资的重要依据，它通过市场分析 和财务评价，从而实现项目在目的上的可行、市场上的可行、经济上可行、 项目建设上的可行，并得出最终的结论，确保投资的有效性和利益最大化。 本报告由六个部分组成：首先介绍报告的研究背景、研究目的及意义和 国内外研究的现状，确定研究内容、方法与技术路线，并介绍了项目建设背 景及项目概况；其次对目前的市场进行详细的分析，包括：宏观环境、行业 特征、市场需求和竞争对手等等，并针对科学出版社自身进行 SWOT 的分 析；最后通过对数字出版项目的技术可行性、经济可行性、社会的影响和面 对的风险等四个方面进行全面的分析，得到数字出版项目可行的结论，并提 出建议和意见。 关键词 数字出版；可行性研究；SWOT 分析；哈尔滨理工大学工商管理硕士学位报告 -II- Feasibility study of Science Press digital publishing project Abstract With the rapid development of our country network, electronic information technology, all walks of life have been invaded by the tide of digitalization, publishing industry is facing a severe test of the digital transformation. Countries during the period of the eleventh five year plan from the start of publishing enterprise to digital transition trend, during the 12th Five Year Plan is the digital publishing put on the agenda. In the meantime Science Press under the advocate of the government quickly transformed successfully and merger and reorganization established publishing group company even plans to become a listed company, to take this opportunity to focus resources and power with the development of digital publishing project. The project feasibility study is an important basis for evaluation of the project whether to invest, it through market analysis and financial evaluation, so as to achieve the purpose of viable projects in the market, feasible, economically viable, the project construction is feasible, and draw the final conclusion, to ensure maximum effectiveness and benefit of investment. This thesis is composed of six parts: the first introduces the purpose and significance of the research and the current situation at home and abroad, the research background, research contents, methods and techniques to determine the route, and introduces the project background and project; secondly, analysis, with the current market include: macro environment, industry characteristics, the market demand and competition and so on, and according to the analysis of the SWOT Science Press itself; by the end of the digital publishing four aspects of technical feasibility, economic feasibility and social impact of the project, and face the risk of a comprehensive analysis, digital publishing project is feasible, and puts forward some suggestions and opinions. Keywords digital publishing,feasibility study,SWOT analysis哈尔滨理工大学工商管理硕士学位报告 目 录 摘要................................................................................................................... I Abstract ................................................................................................................ II 目 录.................................................................................................................III 第 1 章 绪论.........................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 ....................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的及意义 ........................................................................................1 1.2.1 研究目的 .............................................................................................1 1.2.2 研究意义 .............................................................................................2 1.3 国内外研究现状 ........................................................................................2 1.3.1 国外研究现状 .....................................................................................2 1.3.2 国内研究现状 .....................................................................................4 1.4 主要研究内容与技术路线.........................................................................6 1.4.1 主要研究内容 .....................................................................................6 1.4.2 技术路线 .............................................................................................7 第 2 章 项目概况及市场分析..............................................................................9 2.1 项目建设背景及项目方案概述 .................................................................9 2.1.1 项目建设背景 .....................................................................................9 2.1.2 项目方案概述 ...................................................................................10 2.2 项目的组织机构和项目进度................................................................... 11 2.2.1 组织机构分析 ................................................................................... 11 2.2.2 项目进度计划 ...................................................................................12 2.3 市场机会分析 ..........................................................................................13 2.3.1 项目所处外部宏观环境分析 ............................................................13 2.3.2 项目所属行业经济特征分析 ............................................................14 2.4 市场需求预测 ..........................................................................................15 2.4.1 国外市场发展状况............................................................................15 2.4.2 国内需求的主要驱动因素 ................................................................16 2.4.3 市场需求趋势预测............................................................................17 2.5 市场竞争分析 ..........................................................................................17 2.5.1 国内主要竞争对手分析....................................................................17哈尔滨理工大学工商管理硕士学位报告 2.5.2 科学出版社竞争优势分析 ................................................................18 2.6 本章小结 ..................................................................................................20 第 3 章 数字出版项目的技术可行性分析........................................................21 3.1 数字出版的技术平台构建分析 ...............................................................21 3.1.1 硬件设备构建分析............................................................................21 3.1.2 软件技术的构建分析........................................................................22 3.2 数字出版的营销渠道分析及版权保护 ...................................................22 3.2.1 数字出版的营销渠道分析 ................................................................23 3.2.2 版权保护问题分析............................................................................24 3.3 数字出版与传统出版相结合...................................................................26 3.3.1 传统出版物向数字化出版物转化 ....................................................26 3.3.2 数字化出版物向传统出版物转化 ....................................................27 3.4 数字出版模式分析 ..................................................................................27 3.4.1 原版式数字化出版............................................................................28 3.4.2 网络在线模式出版............................................................................28 3.4.3 新媒体出版模式 ...............................................................................28 3.5 本章小结 ..................................................................................................28 第 4 章 经济可行性分析 ...................................................................................30 4.1 项目资金估算 ..........................................................................................30 4.1.1 估算依据 ...........................................................................................30 4.1.2 项目总投资估算 ...............................................................................30 4.2 项目资金筹措方案 ..................................................................................31 4.3 项目销售估算 ..........................................................................................32 4.4 项目经济效益分析 ..................................................................................33 4.4.1 盈利能力分析 ...................................................................................33 4.4.2 偿债能力分析 ...................................................................................36 4.5 不确定性分析 ..........................................................................................37 4.5.1 盈亏平衡分析 ...................................................................................37 4.5.2 敏感性分析 .......................................................................................39 4.6 本章小结 ..................................................................................................40 第 5 章 社会影响和风险分析............................................................................41 5.1 社会影响分析 ..........................................................................................41 5.1.1 社会适应性分析 ...............................................................................41哈尔滨理工大学工商管理硕士学位报告 5.1.2 社会效益分析 ...................................................................................42 5.2 风险与对策分析 ......................................................................................43 5.2.1 政策风险与对策分析........................................................................43 5.2.2 市场风险与对策分析........................................................................45 5.2.3 经营管理与对策分析........................................................................46 5.3 分析的结论 ..............................................................................................47 5.4 本章小结 ..................................................................................................47 结论.....................................................................................................................48