国外学者在以往研究税收及其社会经济效应时，通常假设个体对税收信息是完 全知道的，因此，个体不仅能够完全察觉和感知到真实的税负，而且能够据此做出 最优的行为决策。但是，随着现代经济学理论的发展，20 世纪 50 年代，Simon(1955) 对古典经济学的“理性经济人”假设进行了批判，并提出了“有限理性决策理论”。 此外，20 世纪 70 年代末以来，随着“前景理论”的诞生和行为经济学的发展，国外 学者的研究也进一步发现，由于环境的复杂性和个体认知能力的有限性，个体并非 是完全理性的，而且其偏好也并非是一成不变的。因此，在现实的社会经济生活中， 由于税制结构的复杂性与居民税收认知能力的有限性，居民并不能完全察觉和理解 全部税收，也不可能完全做出最优的行为决策。 近年来，针对纳税人“税收低估”的问题，Chetty et al.(2009)等国外学者提出了 “税收凸显性”(Tax Salience)理论，并基于行为经济学的视角，就税收凸显性对居民 行为影响的经济与社会效应进行了一定的理论探讨和实证研究。但是，当前国外学 者关于税收凸显性问题的现有研究主要基于欧美发达国家的税制环境，而基于发展 中国家税制环境进行的相关研究则较为少见。有鉴于此，本文立足于中国的税制环 境和居民税收认知度的现状，在梳理国外相关研究文献和借鉴国外学者研究方法的 基础上，探讨了税收凸显性、税收感知度对中国居民行为偏好的影响问题。 首先，以个人所得税与消费税为例，基于中国 2001~2014 年的省级面板数据， 实证分析了税收凸显性对居民消费支出的影响。研究发现，税收凸显性对居民的消 费支出存在一定的影响。个人所得税作为直接税，由于税收凸显性相对比较高，其 对居民的消费支出具有显著的负效应，即随着个人所得税税负的提高，居民会显著 地减少消费支出。而消费税作为间接税，由于采用价内税的税制设计，并且大部分 应税消费品的消费税主要在生产环节征收，这导致中国现行消费税的税收凸显性比 较低，加之当前中国居民的税收认知度和税收意识普遍偏低，因此，消费税对居民 的消费支出没有显著的影响。 其次，以卷烟消费和白酒消费为例，采用情景模拟的实验法，实证分析了税收华 中 科 技 大 学 博 士 学 位 论 文 II 凸显性对居民消费行为倾向的影响。研究发现，消费税凸显性对居民的消费行为倾 向具有显著的影响。在控制消费者的收入水平等相关因素的情况下，消费税凸显性 对烟草消费者和白酒消费者的消费行为倾向均具有显著的影响，即在消费税凸显性 较高的情境下，烟草消费者和白酒消费者减少卷烟和白酒消费的行为倾向会更高。 此外，进一步的边际效应估计结果显示，与收入水平等其他相关变量相比，消费税 凸显性对烟草消费者和白酒消费者“可能会”与“完全会”减少卷烟和白酒消费的 行为倾向的边际影响更大，这表明消费税凸显性对居民的消费行为倾向具有较为重 要的影响。 再次，根据政府规模“内在规模”与“外在规模”的划分，利用微观调查数据 实证分析了税收感知度对居民政府规模偏好的影响。研究发现，税收感知度对居民 的政府规模偏好具有显著的影响。在控制居民的收入水平、教育水平等个体特征的 情况下，税收感知度对居民的政府“内在规模”偏好具有显著的影响，即居民的税 收感知度越高，其对限制“政府权力规模”的偏好会越强烈。同样，在控制居民的 收入水平、教育水平等个体特征的情况下，税收感知度对居民的政府“外在规模” 偏好也具有显著的影响，即居民的税收感知度越高，其对限制“政府机构与公务员 规模”和“行政经费开支规模”的偏好也会越强烈。 最后，以个人所得税为例，利用微观调查数据的实证研究发现，税收感知度对 居民的纳税遵从度和纳税意愿均具有显著的影响。在控制收入水平、教育水平和税 制复杂性等一系列因素的情况下，税收感知度对居民的纳税遵从度具有显著的正向 影响，即居民的税收感知度越高，其缴纳个人所得税的遵从度也会越高。同样，在 控制收入水平、教育水平和税制复杂性等一系列因素的情况下，税收感知度对居民 的纳税意愿也具有显著的正向影响，即居民的税收感知度越高，其缴纳个人所得税 的意愿也会越高。但是，需要特别注意的是，这一研究结论可能仅适用于中国当前 特定的税制环境，随着综合与分类相结合个人所得税制改革的推进和居民纳税感知 度的提高，税收感知度对居民纳税遵从度和纳税意愿的影响可能会发生变化。 关键词，税收凸显性 税收感知度 居民消费行为 政府规模偏好 纳税遵从行为华 中 科 技 大 学 博 士 学 位 论 文 III Abstract In their researches on tax and its social and economic effects, foreign scholars usually suppose that individuals are well informed of tax information. Hence, the individuals are not only fully aware of the genuine burden of taxes but also able to make optimal decisions accordingly. However, with the development of modern economic theories, in the 1950’s, Simon criticized the classic hypothesis of Rational-Economic Man and advocated a theory of Bounded Rationality Decision. In addition, since the end of 1970’s, with the emergence of Prospect Theory and the development of behavioral economics, researches by foreign scholars have further found that due to the complexity of environment and limited individual cognitive competence, individuals are not fully rational, and their preferences are not invariable. Therefore, in real social and economic life, due to the complexity of the structure of tax system and their limited cognitive competence in tax, residents are not able to be fully aware of all taxes, or make fully optimal decisions. In recent years, some foreign scholars, like Chetty et al.(2009), have proposed a theory of Tax Salience in dealing with the problem of tax underestimation on the part of tax payers. Based on the perspective of behavioral economics, they have made some theoretical and empirical researches on the social and economic effects of Tax Salience on Residents Behavior. However, existing researches on Tax Salience by foreign scholars are mainly based on tax systems in developed countries in Europe and America, and only few researches are based on the tax systems in developing countries. For this reason, this article, based on China's tax system and the status of Chinese residents’ Tax Perception, as well as the existing research achievements of foreign scholars, explores the influence of Tax Salience and the degree of Tax Perception on the behavior preferences of Chinese residents. Firstly, taking Individual Income Tax and Consumption Tax as examples, this article makes an empirical analysis of the effect of Tax Salience on Residents' Consumption expenditures based on the provincial panel data of 2001-2014 in China. The studying results show that Tax Salience has an impact on Residents' Consumption Behavior. Individual Income Tax as a direct tax has a significantly negative effect on Residents'华 中 科 技 大 学 博 士 学 位 论 文 IV Consumption Behavior due to a relative higher level of Tax Salience. Specifically, increase of tax burden per capita of Individual Income Tax will lead to decrease of consumption expenditure per capita on average. However, Excise Tax as an indirect tax does not have a significant effect on Residents' Consumption Behavior. Due to the adoption of taxes included in the calculated prices and the fact that Excise Tax of most taxable consumer goods is mainly levied on the production link, Excise Tax has a relative lower level of Tax Salience. In addition, Tax Perception and the Tax Consciousness of current Chinese residents are generally low, which also accounts for the result. Secondly, taking the consumption of cigarette and wine as examples, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of Tax Salience on the Preference of Resident’s Consumption Behavior, which is with the application of the experiment of situation simulation. The studying results show that the Consumption Tax Salience has a significantly influence on Consumption Behavior of Consumers. Under the control of salary level and relative elements of consumers, the Consumption Tax Salience has a significant influence on consumers’ consumption behavior of cigarette and wine. That means the propensity of consumers for reducing consumption of cigarette and wine will be stronger when Excise Tax Salience gets higher. Additionally, marginal effect estimation shows that the marginal impact of Excise Tax Salience on consumers’ behavior propensity of probably and absolutely reducing cigarette and wine consumption is larger, compared with income level and other relevant variables. This means Excise Tax Salience has a significant effect on Residents’ Consumption Behavior. Thirdly, according to the division of Inner Scale and External Scale of Government Scale, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of Tax Perception on Residents’ Preference of Govern