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MBA毕业论文_Y高速公路建设项目风险分析和控制研究DOC

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改革开放以来,随着国民经济的不断发展,各地的交流也频繁增加,人们对公路出 行的需求也从以往的“有路可走”提高到快速便捷的高速通道。“要想富,先修路”, 只有打通了道路,才能够促进当地的对外交流,从而推动经济可持续发展。未来,我国 要从交通大国走向交通强国,更加需要遍布全国的高速公路骨干网络。但是,高速公路 项目的建设是一个极其复杂的过程,其中涉及到立项、征地、环评、水保、招投标、合 同履行、资金风险控制、工程技术、安全质量管理等多个环节,而且高速公路项目建设 路线长、周期长、投资大,因此,在高速公路的投资建设管理活动当中,就必然面临着 不可预测的风险,这些风险将影响到高速公路的投资及工程实体的建设。为了保证高速 公路项目建设的顺利进行,风险管理工作就变得极为重要。 本文以 Y 高速公路建设项目为研究对象,综合运用层次分析法、文献研究法、案例 研究法法对该项目的风险管理进行识别和评价。具体而言,首先本文通过文献研究法对 该项目的建设期风险要素进行识别,最终共识别出了 6 类风险类型(政治法律风险、自 然风险、合同风险、技术风险、财务风险、质量风险),14 项风险因素,并在此基础上 构建了该项目的风险指标体系。接着,本研究运用层次分析法和对识别出的风险进行评 价,评价结果显示目前该项目风险分为高、中、低三个等级,其中高风险包括政治风险、 恶劣气象、招标、法律风险,中度风险包括施工材料、资金筹集、合同履约、恶劣施工 环境、工程设计、合同金额变更,低风险包括工程施工、预算控制、工程监测、工程监 理。最后,对识别出的风险按照不同的风险等级给出了相应的风险控制措施。本文对高 速公路建设项目风险进行了深入的探讨和研究,研究结果具有一定的参考价值。 关键词,高速公路项目;风险评价;风险控制;层次分析法II Abstract Since the reform and opening up, with the continuous development of the national economy, the exchanges between different places have also increased frequently. The demand for road trips has also increased from the past “the way to go” to the fast and convenient high-speed passage. "If you want to be rich, you must build a road first." Only by getting through the road can you promote local exchanges and promote sustainable economic development. In the future, China will have to travel from a large transportation country to a powerful transportation country, and it will need a backbone network of highways throughout the country. However, the construction of expressway projects is an extremely complicated process involving many aspects such as project establishment, land acquisition, environmental assessment, water conservation, bidding, contract performance, capital risk control, engineering technology, safety and quality management, and highways. The construction of the project is long, the cycle is long, and the investment is large. Therefore, in the investment and construction management activities of the expressway, it is bound to face unpredictable risks, which will affect the investment of the expressway and the construction of the engineering entity. In order to ensure the smooth progress of highway project construction, risk management work has become extremely important. This paper takes Y highway construction project as the research object, and comprehensively uses analytic hierarchy process, literature research method and case study method to identify and evaluate the risk management of the project. Specifically, firstly, this paper identifies the risk factors of the construction period of the project through the literature research method, and finally identifies six types of risk types (political legal risk, natural risk, contract risk, technical risk, financial risk, quality risk). , 14 risk factors, and based on this, the risk indicator system of the project was constructed. Then, this study uses AHP and evaluates the identified risks. The evaluation results show that the current risk of the project is divided into three levels: high, medium and low. The high risks include political risk, bad weather, bidding, legal risk. Moderate risks include construction materials, fund raising, contract performance, poor construction environment, engineering design, and change in contract amount. Low risk includes engineering construction, budget control, engineering monitoring, and project supervision. Finally, the corresponding risk control measures are given for the identified risks according to different risk levels. This paper has conducted in-depth discussion and research on the risk of expressway construction projects, and the research results have certain reference value. Key words:The Highway Project;RiskAssessment;Risk Control;Analytic Hierarchy ProcessIII 目录 摘要....I Abstract........II 图表清单......V 第一章 绪论.1 1.1 研究背景.....1 1.2 研究目的与意义..2 1.3 文献综述.....3 1.3.1 风险及风险管理的定义.3 1.3.2 国外风险管理研究4 1.3.3 国内风险管理研究5 1.3.4 国内高速公路建设项目风险源研究........8 1.4 研究内容与方法11 1.4.1 研究内容...11 1.4.2 研究方法.....12 1.5 技术路线...12 第二章 Y 项目概况与风险要素的识别14 2.1 公司简介...14 2.2 Y 高速公路建设项目的概况........14 2.2.1 Y 高速公路建设项目概况.....14 2.2.2 Y 高速公路建设项目管理现状......15 2.3 风险要素识别及风险成因分析...16 2.3.1 Y 项目建设面临的主要风险要素识别...16 2.3.2 Y 项目建设面临的主要风险分析..17 2.3.3 Y 高速公路项目建设风险产生原因.......22 2.4 本章小结...24 第三章 Y 高速公路建设项目风险分析与评价......25 3.1 研究设计....25 3.2 Y 高速公路建设项目风险的评价系数.25IV 3.2.1 建立风险评价模型的原则....25 3.2.2 Y 高速公路建设项目风险评价的具体过程....28 3.3 本章小结...33 第四章 Y 高速公路建设项目风险控制措施.34 4.1 风险应对措施分类.....34 4.2 建立 Y 高速公路建设项目风险应急预案....34 4.2.1 高风险的应对措施.......35 4.2.2 中度风险的应对措施....38 4.2.3 低风险的应对措施.......41 4.3 加强企业内部控制.....43 4.4 本章小结....43 结 论..45