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中南运煤通道-岚山港铁路项目投资可行性研究报告DOC

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铁路作为公共交通的重要组成部分,具有投资大、收益率低、投资回收期长 的特点,一般主要由政府出资建设。但是,随着中国铁路的发展及政策调整,尤 其是铁路总公司成立后,铁路建设与管理由以往的政策导向型逐步转变为市场导 向型,新建铁路项目对民间资本开放,鼓励和引导非公有资本投入铁路基础设施 建设。这一方面调动了民间资本投资铁路建设的积极性,但同时对新建铁路项目 前期可行性分析工作提出了新的要求,更加注重项目经济效益,因此需提高项目 财务评价的准确性,降低项目投资风险。 可行性研究以全技术经济层面的分析研究为目的,分析项目新建或改建过程 中出现的问题,估测项目运营后的运营效果,在已划定的范围内论证比较各可行 方案,从而实现资源的合理利用,不会偏离预定的社会和经济效益。投资可行性 分析是项目可行性研究过程中重要环节,以确保估算准确、筹资渠道保障、评价 指标符合标准,同时降低投资风险。铁路项目投资可行性研究是铁路项目建设可 行性报告的组成要素,对项目的决策起到决定性作用。铁路投资项目投资可行性 分析属于铁路项目的财务计划的一部分,其目的在于为项目投资者提供项目相关 的财务信息,引导项目投资决策和项目方案的制定。 本文针对中南运煤通道-岚山港铁路项目,一方面从对拟建项目所在地地方 经济拉动的角度定性论述了项目建设的必要性,本项目可以带动沿线区域经济发 展,补充已有铁路,完善日照地区的铁路网络,增强网路的带动能力和辐射范围。 另一方面通过对项目开展市场调研,利用实地调研法、专家访谈法和专家预测法 对项目建设期投资和运营期资金回收状况的相关数据进行预测,根据项目建设里 程碑确定各年度投资额并合理运用资金,对现有企业、已有铁路线走访调查结合 相关国家地区规定和实际情况确定铁路运量和运价。利用财务评价指标规则定量 分析项目内部收益率、财务净现值、投资回收期、借款偿还期等。本项目财务内 部收益率为 10.35%,高于铁路行业基准收益率,财务净现值为 460102 万元,效 益状况良好,投资回收期为 13.22 年,借款偿还期为 12.26 年,清偿能力强,回 收期较短,具有良好的运营可行性和吸引力。 由于项目处于可行性研究阶段,大部分基础数据都是通过专家同事根据以往 个人工作经验得出来的,与实际情况可能有一定的差别,因此,还需要对项目进摘要 iii 行不确定性研究,本文首先对项目进行敏感性分析,确定敏感性因素为运价、运 量、投资与运营成本,分析项目可能面临的风险并提出应对建议,提高项目的成 功率,应从降低项目各项投资成本、提高项目各阶段的管控能力着手。利用盈亏 平衡分析评估项目的风险承受能力,项目盈利能力较好,论证项目经济可行性, 为企业决策提供依据,同时也对我国其他货运铁路投资可行性分析具有一定借鉴 意义。 关键词, 投资可行性;财务分析;铁路项目;不确定性分析中南运煤通道-岚山港铁路项目投资可行性研究 Abstract Railway as an important part of public transport, with characteristics in enormous investment, low yield, long investment recovery period, generally is funded by government. However, with the development of Chinese railway and policy adjustment, especially after the establishment of Railway Company, railway construction and management of the past policy oriented gradually shift to market-oriented. The new railway project is open to private capital, to encourage and guide non-public capital into railway infrastructure construction. On the one hand, the enthusiasm of private capital investment in railway construction has been mobilized, but at the same time, the feasibility of the new railway project is put forward to improve the accuracy of project financial evaluation and reduce the investment risk of the project. The Feasibility Analysis contains the whole technology and financial analysis of the project, the analysis of the operational effect of the project, and the operational effectiveness of the project after the assessment of the feasibility of the project in order to achieve the reasonable use of resources and not to deviate from the expected social and economic benefits. Financial feasibility analysis is an important part of the project feasibility analysis to ensure accurate, support financing channel and evaluation according to criteria and the necessary risk analysis. Railway construction project financial feasibility analysis is an important part of the feasibility report of the railway project construction, and also the key to decide the project investment. Financial evaluation of railway investment projects is a financial plan for the railway project, which aims to provide the project investors with useful financial information to guide the project investment and project investment decision. According to the coal channel - Lanshan port railway project, on the one hand, the necessity of project construction from the seat of the local economy point of view, this project can promote regional economic development along the line, complement the existing railway, improve the railway network in Rizhao area, and enhance the driving ability and radiation range. On the other hand, through the market investigation of the project, using the method of field research, expert interview and expert forecasting method forecasts the related data in project investment and construction period and operation period of capital recovery situation. According to the project construction milestone to determine the annual investment and reasonableAbstract v use of funds, we through making a survey about the existing enterprises, the existing railway line combined with the relevant provisions countries and regions determine the actual situation of railway freight volume and freight. Using the financial evaluation index rule to calculate the internal rate of return, financial net present value, investment payback period, loan repayment period, the financial internal rate of return is 10.35%, higher than the railway industry benchmark yield. The financial net present value is 4,601,020,000 yuan, which shows the benefit is good. The investment payback period is 12.26 years, and the repayment period is 13.22 years. The project has a good liquidity, short payback period, and has a good operational feasibility and appeal to the supporters. Because the project is in the feasibility analysis stage, most of the data are from the previous engineering experience or expert advice, and the actual situation may have some differences, therefore, it is necessary to carry out the risk analysis of the project, determine the sensitivity factor for freight, freight, investment and operating costs, analysis of the project may face risks and put forward suggestions to improve the success rate, we should reduce the investment cost of the project, improve the project management capabilities. Using the profit and loss balance analysis to evaluate the risk of the project, the project profitability is good, and the feasibility of the project is demonstrated to provide basis for enterprise decision making and national audit. Key Words: Investment Feasibility; Financial Analysis; Railway Project Uncertainty Analysis中南运煤通道-岚山港铁路项目投资可行性研究 目录 第 1 章 绪论 .....1 1.1 研究背景 ....... 1 1.2 研究意义 ....... 1 1.2.1 理论意义 2 1.2.2 现实意义 2 1.3 可行性研究国内外发展概述 .. 3 1.3.1 国外研究现状 . 3 1.3.2 国内研究现状 . 7 1.4 研究内容 ....... 8 1.5 研究方法 ....... 9 1.6 创新点 10 第 2 章 相关理论 ....11 2.1 项目可行性分析 .. 11 2.1.1 可行性研究概念 .... 11 2.1.2 可行性研究主要内容 ..... 11 2.1.3 可行性研究阶段划分 ..... 12 2.1.4 可行性研究程序步骤 ..... 13 2.2 投资可行性分析 .. 14 2.2.1 投资可行性分析 ... 14 2.2.2 投资可行性要素的估算 16 2.3 投资可行性分析指标 ... 17 2.3.1 项目投资的静态评价指标....... 18 2.3.2 项目投资的不确定性分析....... 20 2.4 本章小结 ..... 23 第 3 章 中岚铁路项目情况和投资过程分析 ...24 3.1 项目概况 ..... 24 3.2 项目建设过程 ...... 27 3.3 项目建设投资估算 ....... 29 3.4 本章小结 ..... 32 第 4 章 中岚铁路项目资金回收状况分析 .......33 4.1 沿线经济分析 ...... 33 4.1.1 区域经济概况 ........ 33目录 vii 4.1.2 沿线企业情况 ........ 33 4.2 沿线运量分析 ...... 34 4.2.1 运量预测方法 ........ 34 4.2.2 沿线主要站货运量 ........ 35 4.3 运营阶段资金回收量 ... 35 4.3.1 运营成本 ....... 35 4.3.2 运价率 . 36 4.3.3 其他 ..... 36 4.4 本章小结 ..... 40 第 5 章 项目财务评价 ...41 5.1 主要参数及指标计算分析 .... 41 5.1.1 财务内部收益率(FIRR)...... 42 5.1.2 财务净现值(FNPV) ... 43 5.1.3 投资回收期(Pt) . 43 5.1.4 投资借款偿还期 .... 43 5.1.5 财务评价指标分析 43 5.2 不确定性分析 ...... 44 5.2.1 敏感性分析 ... 44 5.2.2 盈亏平衡分析 ....... 50 5.3 本章小结 ..... 51 第 6 章 结论与展望 52 6.1 结论 ...... 52 6.2 展望 ...... 53