电力行业关系国计民生，是支撑科技进步和社会繁荣的关键行业。为了满足 日益增长的电力消费需求，我国注入了大量资金进行电力基础设施建设，电力行 业的投资规模迅速扩大。在国家能源战略的背景下，我国“十二五”期间投建了 较多的可再生能源发电项目，然而相关项目容易因可再生能源固有的间歇性而出 现消纳困难、严重弃风弃光等问题，项目投资效率低，无法有效调节我国电网峰 谷差。在这样的现实背景下，大力发展储能产业成为国家新的战略方向。2018 年，国家能源局批复立项了我国首个压缩空气储能领域的国家示范项目——中盐 金坛盐穴压缩空气储能国家试验示范项目，这一项目既意味着巨大的机遇，也意 味着巨大的挑战，如何设计出更科学合理的技术和方案、确保项目各项指标均实 际可行成为摆在项目管理人员的关键难题。鉴于此，为确保盐穴压缩空气储能国 家试验示范项目的成功落地，最大化项目的投资效率，针对常州盐穴电站 110 千 伏线路工程项目进行科学、严谨、细致的可行性研究，深入分析项目方案的技术 可行性、经济合理性和建设可能性等显得尤为必要。 本文在梳理已有文献成果和可行性研究相关理论的基础上，结合项目概况和 常州电力系统现状，对常州未来八年的用电负荷进行预测，总结概括出项目建设 的必要性；从项目技术可行性、经济可行性和社会环境可行性的角度出发，论证 该线路工程项目的可行性；利用专家意见法、层次分析法和模糊综合评价法并考 虑项目的技术风险、管理风险和环境风险对项目进行综合评价。研究发现，项目 具有充分的建设必要性；技术方案的线路设计、沿线水文地质条件、铁塔与基础 施工方案、电气工程方案均具有较高的技术可行性；项目的净现值大于零，内部 收益率大于行业基准收益率，且静态和动态投资回收期满足要求，具有较高的经 济可行性；项目具有重大的行业示范意义，对当地经济有重要的推动作用，同时 项目建设符合环境审查的要求，具有较高的社会环境可行性；项目综合评价结果 显示，有 43%的专家认为该线路工程项目综合评价为“优”，33%的专家认为该 线路工程综合评价为“良”。因此，本项目综合可行。 关键词：盐穴压缩空气储能电站；110 千伏线路工程项目；可行性研究；层次分 析法；模糊综合评价常州盐穴电站 110 千伏线路工程项目可行性研究 2 ABSTRACT The electric power industry is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and is a key industry supporting scientific and technological progress and social prosperity. In order to meet the increasing demand for electricity consumption, China has injected a large amount of funds into the construction of power infrastructure, and the scale of investment in the power industry has expanded rapidly. Under the background of the national energy strategy, more renewable energy power generation projects have been put into operation during the 12th Five-Year Plan period in China. However, related projects are prone to problems such as absorption difficulties and serious wind and light abandonment due to the inherent intermittence of renewable energy. The project investment efficiency is low and cannot effectively adjust the peak-valley difference of China's power grid. Under such a realistic background, vigorously developing the energy storage industry has become the new strategic direction of the country. In 2018, the State Energy Administration approved the establishment of China's first national demonstration project in the field of compressed air energy storage-the CNSIG Jintan Salt Cavern compressed air energy storage national experimental demonstration project. This project means both great opportunities and great challenges. How to design more scientific and reasonable technologies and programs and ensure that all indexes of the project are practical has become a key problem for project managers. In view of this, in order to ensure the successful landing of the salt cavern compressed air energy storage national experimental demonstration project and to maximize the investment efficiency of the project, it is particularly necessary to carry out scientific, rigorous and detailed feasibility study on this project, and to deeply analyze the technical feasibility, economic rationality and construction possibility of the project scheme. On the basis of combing the related theories of the existing literature research and feasibility study, this paper forecasts the electricity load of Changzhou in the next江苏大学工程硕士学位报告 3 eight years and summarizes the necessity of the project construction in combination with the general situation of the project and the current situation of Changzhou power system. From the perspective of technical feasibility, economic feasibility and social and environmental feasibility of the project, the feasibility of the line project is demonstrated. The feasibility study is comprehensively evaluated by expert opinion method, analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The research found that the project has sufficient construction necessity; The route design, hydrogeological conditions along the route, iron tower and foundation construction scheme and electrical engineering scheme of the technical scheme have high technical feasibility. The net present value of the project is greater than zero, the internal rate of return is greater than the industry benchmark rate of return, and the static and dynamic payback periods of investment meet the requirements, thus having higher economic feasibility. The project is of great industry demonstration significance and plays an important role in promoting the local economy. At the same time, the project construction meets the requirements of environmental review and has high social and environmental feasibility. The results of the comprehensive feasibility evaluation show that 43% of the experts think the feasibility study of the line project is " excellent" and 33% of the experts think the feasibility study of the line project is " good". Therefore, on the whole, the project is feasible. Key words: Salt Cavern Compressed Air for Energy Storage; Feasibility Study; Analytic Hierarchy Process; Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation常州盐穴电站 110 千伏线路工程项目可行性研究 4 目录 第 1 章 绪论.... 1 1.1 研究背景及意义..1 1.1.1 研究背景...1 1.1.2 研究意义...2 1.2 国内外研究现状..2 1.2.1 国外研究现状....2 1.2.2 国内研究现状....4 1.3 研究内容及方法..6 1.3.1 研究内容...6 1.3.2 研究方法...7 1.4 技术路线图.7 第 2 章 基本概念与相关理论方法.... 9 2.1 可行性研究的概念及内容....9 2.1.1 可行性研究的概念.....9 2.1.2 可行性研究的内容...10 2.2 可行性研究的方法.....11 2.3 可行性研究的要求及程序..12 2.3.1 可行性研究的要求...12 2.3.2 可行性研究的程序...12 2.4 层次分析法与模糊综合评价法....13 2.4.1 层次分析法......13 2.4.2 模糊综合评价法.......16 第 3 章 常州盐穴电站 110 千伏线路工程项目概况及电力需求分析 18 3.1 常州盐穴电站 110 千伏线路工程项目概况.18 3.1.1 项目简介.18 3.1.2 项目进度计划..18 3.1.3 项目组织结构..19 3.1.4 项目设计依据..20江苏大学工程硕士学位报告 5 3.2 常州电力系统现状与电力需求分析....21 3.2.1 电力系统现状..21 3.2.2 趋势分析与用电负荷预测21 3.2.3 项目建设的必要性...23 第 4 章 常州盐穴电站 110 千伏线路工程技术及环境可行性分析.... 25 4.1 项目技术可行性分析.25 4.1.1 架空线路设计..25 4.1.2 电缆线路设计..28 4.1.3 电气工程.28 4.2 项目社会环境可行性分析..29 4.2.1 宏观环境影响评价...29 4.2.2 微观环境影响评价...30 4.3 本章小结...31 第 5 章 常州盐穴电站 110 千伏线路工程投资估算及经济评价........ 32 5.1 项目投资估算....32 5.1.1 编制原则和依据.......32 5.1.2 投资估算结果..32 5.1.3 造价分析.33 5.2 项目经济效益分析.....33 5.2.1 成本预测.34 5.2.2 收入预测.37 5.2.3 现金流量及利润预测........38 5.2.4 盈利能力分析..42 5.3 本章小结...45 第 6 章 常州盐穴电站 110 千伏线路工程项目模糊综合评价... 46 6.1 线路工程综合评价指标体系的构建....46 6.1.1 指标体系构建标准与原则46 6.1.2 综合评价指标选取...47 6.2 基于层次分析法的指标体系权重确定50常州盐穴电站 110 千伏线路工程项目可行性研究 6 6.2.1 构建综合评价各因素的判断矩阵......50 6.2.2 指标权重确定..51 6.3 项目模糊综合评价结果分析.......54 6.4 本章小结...56 第 7 章 结论与展望........ 57 7.1 结论..57 7.2 展望..58