随着中国城市化进程的加快,城市空间也在呈现网状的扩张和延伸。这一进 程中因区域经济水平发展不一,城市规划设计的参差不齐等因素,造成了城市格 局的新旧交替、拆建重合。在新增城市空间资源极其有限的条件下,城市改造已 经成为大力推进现代化城市建设,加快城市空间和功能的战略性优化,促进经济 可持续发展的战略选择和必由之路。 在土地这一稀缺资源供应日趋紧缩的背景下,通过旧改来获取潜在可开发资 源,进而实施房地产项目开发、增加土地储备,已成为房企破解土地困局的重要 途径。房地产投资是一种高风险高收入的投资,而旧改房地产项目因面临人口密 度大、拆迁安置补偿过程复杂、拆迁周期不可控、牵涉利益相关者众多等因素, 若不加以详实的市场调査、客观的可行性研究,则更容易忽略对不可控风险因素 的预判。在房地产幵发前期,通过对旧改项目进行全面综合分析和论证,从而确 保它在技术上可行、环境上允许、经济上合理、经济效益显著的可行性研究论证, 可以减少投资决策的盲目性,增强开发风险的预判和提高房企的经济效益。 本文关注房地产开发前期的投资决策阶段中的项目可行性研究,综合项目管 理理论和旧城改造理论的启示,以FD房地产旧改项目为案例,通过分析旧改项 目改造的内因以及市场投资环境的外因,结合项目外部行业竞争及项目内部优劣 势模式研究,设计符合市场需求的项目定位,进而编制合理的建设内容、开发计 划及安置计划,最后经过财务分析研判其经济效益,论证项目投资的可行性,以 期为房地产旧改项目的投资可行性研究提供一定的借鉴意义。 关键词:旧城改造,房地产开发项目,可行性研究 MBA学位报告作者:符仕仁 Z 35团FD房地产旧改项目可行件研究 ABSTRACT With the accelerated urbanization process, urban space is in the net-shaped expansion and extension. During this process, the old city constructions are demolished so as to be replaced by or in superposition with the new ones , as a result of the unbalanced development of regional economy and the varied level of urban planning and design. As new urban space is extremely limited, city reconstruction has become the strategic option and only way to vigorously promote the modernization of a city to speed up the strategic optimization of urban space and functionality, and to promote sustainable economic development. The supply of land, which is scarce resource, is becoming increasingly tight. Against that background, it has become an important approach to, through reconstruction of the old city, utilize the potential resources, carry out the project of real estate, and increases the land reserve in order to solve the land problem. The real estate investment is a high-risk and high-income investment. Change for real estate projects faces the problems as high population density, the complex process of resettlement compensation, uncontrollable relocation cycle, involving many stakeholders and other reasons, therefore it is more likely to cause risk of crisis, and poor decisions will lead to investment failure or land clearing. The real estate project feasibility study is an important step in the real estate development and decision analysis process, it is an important basis on which investment decisions are made in the RE development projects. In the early stage of a real-estate project, through a comprehensive and integrated project analysis and argumentation of the technical feasibility, environmental justification and economic profitability and significant economic benefits can reduce blindness in investment decisions, improve real estate economic efficiency of enterprises and promote the rational use of urban land. This article focuses on the study of project's feasibility in the decision stage of the investment. It is inspired and guided by the project management theory and the reconstruction theory of the old city, and takes FD real estate as a case to analyze internal factors of the reconstruction and external industry competition, combined with the advantages and disadvantages Model, The design project is positioned to meet market demand, and thus to prepare a reasonable construction plan, development design and resettlement arrangement, and finally, through the financial analysis which determines its economic benefits, to demonstrate the feasibility of the project investment, in order to provide reference to the project feasibility study. Keywords: Reconstruction of the Old City, Real Estate Development Project,Feasibility Study MBA学位报告作者:符仕仁 Z集团FD房地产旧改项B町行性研究 目录 中文摘要 I ABSTRACT II 第一章绪论 1 1.1问题的提出 1 1.2研究目的及意义 2 1.3研究方法与研究思路 3 第二章相关理论综述 4 2.1房地产开发与项目管理 4 2.2国内外项目可行性研究的实践 7 2.3国内外旧城改造的研究与实践 9 第三章FD旧城改造动因与模式 18 3.1 FD项目概况 18 3.2自然与人口社会经济状况 19 3.3现状发展特征评价 20 3.4公众意愿综述 21 3.5旧改动因分析 22 3.6旧改模式与策略 23 第四章市场分析 25 4.1深圳房地产市场状况 25 4.2项目区域市场分析 28 4.3深圳市房地产行业竞争结构概况 32 4.4项目SWOT分析 34 第五章项目定位与建设内容 36 5. 1项目定位 36 5.2项目建设内容 38 5.3定价策略 40 5.4开发及实施计划 48 第六章项目移民安置方案 50 6. 1拆迁安置方案设计 50 6.2安置的问题及对策 51 第七章项目财务分析 53 i MBA学位报告 作者:符仕仁 Z細FD房地产III改项目可行性研究 7.1财务分析基础数据 53 7.2财务效益分析 58 7.3不确定性分析 59 7.4财务分析结论 60 第八章风险控制 61 8. 1市场风险 61 8.2项目运作风险 61 8.3宏观经济运行风险 62 8.4城市规划与区域发展风险 63 第九章结论与展望 64 9. 1旧改效益评价 64 9.2社会效益评价 65