。供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用
球投资展
约100专业投资人士受参加了我们举办的2019年展论坛,讨球经济景明
一年市场主题析经济衰忧虑风险,并更我们对于不同资产的投资观点主结论下
主题国步经济期末段,预2019年球经济企业盈利增长将放缓着储的政利
率趋中性水平,预期储的利率政将会更加依赖相关数据而作决定,这使得暂停加息的可性
成为市场不定因素的主来源鉴于风险上升,我们应谨慎平衡风险与回报,投资组合宜选政府
债券风险,并将资金置于风险回报水平具引力的高信度资产
风险虽我们认为国于2019年陷衰的实际风险较,但对经济濒临衰的仍会对市场
构成冲击货币政维宽,经济过热不明显,并且金融体风险并未加剧,这都表明经济
仍处于扩张期贸易中对科技领导位之争影响市场绪我们认为相去年,贸易风险
已较在资产价格中,但预期双方谈判出现何波折都将可会引市场欧经济增
长乏力,中期而言,我们对欧政治风险到忧虑我们认为各兴市场国家独的风险缓和,
中国放宽政助稳定经济
市场观点我们看于债券,但信心所下方面,我们认为具备自由现金可续
增长良资产负债表的优质更一筹我们看国,并认为兴市场风险回报水平
所提高固定收益方面,我们上调了国国债评级,看其在期末段防下行风险的作用
我们中短期债券,但对久期的看法转为乐观,我们认为应增优质信用债就投资组合整体
置而言,我们会免涉足上升间限但下行风险大的资产领域,欧
Kate Moore
首席略师
贝莱德智库
Isabelle Mateos y Lago
首席元资产略师
贝莱德智库
Elga Bartsch
经济和市场研负责人
贝莱德智库
Richard Turnill
球首席投资略师
贝莱德智库
市场简 ........3
资产观点 ...........12-15
债券
石油货币
资产类别展
未来展讨论 ......9-11
兴市场
价值投资
势思维
风险 7-8
经济衰忧虑升温
缘政治风险转
2019年主题 ...........4-6
增长放缓
利率中性水平
平衡风险与回报
MKTGM0119A-703299-2/16MKTGM0119A-701447-2/16
FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.
SETTING THE SCENE3
Looking for a landing spot
Total annual returns of global stocks and bonds, 1991–2018
-10-50510152025%
-40
-2020
40%
Global bonds
Gl
ob
al
sto
ck
s
199119992013
20051994
2015
2001
2008
2011
19922000
20161996
2010
1997
2009
2002
2004
2007
20172012
2018 YTD
2014
2006
1993
1998
1995
2003
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters, December 2018.
Notes: Global stocks are represented by the MSCI ACWI index. Global bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays
Global Aggregate Bond Index. Total returns are shown in U.S. dollars. 2018 returns are through Dec. 6.
Yielding more
Asset yields, December 2018 vs. post-crisis average and start of 2018
Asset yields have risen
across the board5
10%
EM
equities
DM
equities
$ EM
debt
U.S.
high yield
U.S.
investment
grade
U.S.
10-year
Treasury
U.S.
2-year
Treasury
Yie
ld
Ea
rn
ing
s y
iel
d
Post-crisis averageCurrentStart of 2018
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters, December 2018.
Notes: The post-crisis average is measured from 2009 through 2018. Equity market yields are represented by 12-month
forward earnings yields. Indexes used from left to right are: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2-year and 10-year U.S.
Government Benchmark Indexes, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield Index,
JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Setting the scene
We see equities and bonds eking out positive returns in 2019. Global
growth looks set to be a key driver of returns as the cycle ages. We see
growth moderating, but little near-term risk of a U.S. recession (
pages 4
and 7
). Corporate earnings growth is slowing but still decent (
page 13
).
And bonds are looking more attractive, both as a source of income and
as portfolio ballast against any late-cycle growth scares (
page 12
).
The end of a decades-long bond bull market means negative stock and bond
returns may become more common. We may end 2018 with negative returns
in both asset classes — a rare event. See the
Looking for a landing spot
chart.
The culprits: uncertainty over trade disputes, late-cycle concerns and tighter
fnancial conditions. Trade frictions still loom but now appear more baked
into asset prices. We are wary of European political risks and assets (
page 8
).
The key risk for equities: Recession fears land us in the chart’s lower-right.
We see potential for a market rebound in 2019, likely with muted returns.
Valuations have cheapened across asset classes, refecting greater risk
as we head into 2019. We still prefer equities over bonds, although with
reduced conviction. Risks such as earnings downgrades and market anxiety
over a recession are real. This underpins our preference for quality companies
with strong balance sheets and sustainable free cash fows. Equity valuations
are back in line with post-crisis averages in developed markets — and look
particularly attractive in the emerging world. See the
Yielding more
chart.
Rising short-term yields are starting to make bonds a viable alternative to
riskier assets for U.S.-dollar-funded investors. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields
are now more than three times their average over the post-crisis period, as
the chart shows. We prefer short maturities but see a role for longer-term debt
as a bufer during equity market sellofs.
See page 12
. We upgrade our view
of U.S. government debt on higher yields and their role as portfolio ballast.
Cheaper asset valuations lower the bar for positive performance in 2019,
but rising risks argue for caution.
BIIM1218U/E-688921-3/16
过去表现并目或未来业绩的可标无法直投资于数
数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自汤路,2018年12月
注球MSCI所国家世界数代表,球债券彭巴克莱球综合债券数代表总回
报元显2018年回报截至12月6日
过去表现并目或未来业绩的可标无法直投资于数
数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自汤路,2018年12月
注危机后平值2009年至2018年数据计市收益率12个月远期盈利收益率所采用
数由左至右为汤路Datastream 2年期10年期国政府基准数彭巴克莱国信用债
数彭巴克莱国高收益数根大球兴市场元债券数MSCI世界数MSCI
兴市场数供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用
市场简
市场简
我们认为2019年债券仅会弱上升着期步尾声,球
经济增长将成为推动回报的关键因素我们认为增长正在放缓,但短期内
国陷衰的风险（见47页）企业盈利增长所放缓,但仍
处于良水平（见13页）债券引力上升,其可作为收益来源,亦
可效期末段增长放缓忧虑引发的下行风险（见12页）
长数十年的债券牛市告终,意味着债券回报下跌的况将更为
常见2018年末可出现债齐跌的见况详见右上图“寻找着陆
点”成上况的根源包括贸易争端带来的不定因素期末段
忧虑金融环境收紧贸易的阴仍未,但现在乎已更
在资产价格中我们认为应该惕欧的政治风险和资产景（见8
页）面临的主风险来自经济衰引发的忧虑,这可导回报跌至
图表右下方位置
2019年市场回升,但可不会带来强劲的回报
各资产类别估值所下跌,2019年将面临更高风险我们仍看
于债券,但信心所下盈利下调市场对经济衰的担忧风
险步显现因,我们看具稳健资产负债表和可续自由现金的
优质企业成熟市场估值跌至危机后平水平,兴市场估值
引力上升详见右下图“收益率上升”
短期债券收益率上升,对元投资者而言,债券收益可风险资产图
所,目国2年期国债收益率为危机后平值三倍上我们看短期
债券,但认为较长期债券在市出现抛售时助风险详见12页
我们上调国国债评级,因其收益率较高,亦可助投资组合风险
资产估值下跌2019年更易获得正向回报,但须惕风险升温
寻找着陆点
球债券年度总回报（1991年至2018年）
收益率上升
2018年12月与危机后平值2018年初资产收益率较
危机后平值
国
2年期
国债
国
10年期
国债
国
投资级别
债券
国
高收益
债券
兴市场
元债券
成熟市场
兴市场
2018年初目
2018
年初至
球
收
益
率
盈
利
收
益
率
球债券
资产收益率普上升
MKTGM0119A-703299-3/16MKTGM0119A-701447-3/16
FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.
2019 THEMESGROWTH SLOWDOWN4
Slowing down
BlackRock Growth GPS for the U.S., eurozone and Japan, 2015–2018
3%
Japan
Eurozone
U.S.
2018201720162015
An
nu
al
re
al
GD
P g
ro
wt
h2
Japan
Eurozone
U.S.
2018 snapshot
2.69%
1.8%
1.33%1.16%1.47%
2.92%
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Bloomberg, December 2018.
Notes: The BlackRock Growth GPS shows where the 12-month forward consensus GDP forecast may stand in three
months’ time. Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass.
Expectations meet reality
Annual trend in analyst earnings estimates since 2008 vs. current 2019 forecasts5
10U.S.
Europe
EM
Ea
rn
ing
s g
ro
wt
h e
sti
ma
te
15%
Earnings downgrades are largely
priced into U.S. and EM stocks
Dec.Nov.Oct.Sept.Aug.JulyJuneMayAprilMarchFeb.Jan.
2019
estimates
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters and IBES, December 2018. Note: The lines show the
trend in average annual earnings growth estimates throughout a calendar year, from 2008 to 2018. The last four weeks of
2018 assume no change in analyst growth estimates. The 2019 estimates are as of December 2018. The respective MSCI
indexes are used to represent the U.S., European and EM markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Click to view
interactive data
Theme 1: growth slowdown
We expect a slowdown in global growth next year, and see the U.S.
economy entering a late-cycle phase. Our
BlackRock Growth GPS
has been
trending lower across the U.S. and eurozone, pointing to a slower pace of
growth in the 12 months ahead. Growth is ticking up in Japan, but from low
levels. See the
Slowing down
chart.
We see U.S. growth stabilizing at a much higher level than other regions,
even as the fading efects of domestic fscal stimulus weigh on year-on-year
growth comparisons. This underscores our preference for U.S. assets within
the developed world. We expect the Chinese growth slowdown to be mild,
as the country appears keenly focused on supporting its economy via fscal
and monetary stimulus.
See page 10
.
We see global growth declining, with the U.S. outperforming its developed
market peers and China stabilizing.
Also set to moderate in 2019: global earnings growth. In the U.S., the
expected slowdown partly refects a higher hurdle versus 2018 when
corporate tax cuts provided a big boost to company earnings. U.S. earnings
growth estimates look set to normalize from a heady 24% in 2018 to 9% in
2019, consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters data show. This is still
above the global average. EMs are set to maintain double-digit earnings
growth, led by China as its tech sector recovers and a pivot toward economic
stimulus supports its economy. The U.S. and EMs remain our favored regions.
Slowing growth and the impact of tarifs make for a more cautious corporate
outlook. This could add to uncertainty in earnings estimates. The
Expectations
meet reality
chart shows analysts’ estimates have generally tracked lower from
the start of the year, especially in Europe. The historical trend suggests
earnings downgrades are largely priced into U.S. and EM stocks, whereas
European estimates may be too optimistic given political and growth risks.
Corporate earnings growth is likely to slow in 2019, but we see U.S. and
EM companies best positioned to deliver on expectations.
BIIM1218U/E-688921-4/16
数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自彭,2018年12月
注贝莱德增长GPS标显GDP未来12个月一预测在三个月后的水平预测未必会发生
数据源贝莱德智库,数据来自汤路IBES,2018年12月注线显2008年至2018年各
年平年度盈利增长预测的趋势假设2018年后四星期析师增长预测并无变动2019年预测截
至2018年12月国欧兴市场数据由对应的MSCI数代表无法直投资于数供派发于合格境内机构投资者、专业及机构投资者使用
点击处浏览
互动数据
主题1增长放缓
我们预期明年球经济增长将放缓,国步经济期末段贝莱德增长
GPS标显,国欧元区增长率趋向下跌,预计未来12个月增长步伐
将放缓日本经济则由位升详见右上图“增长放缓”
虽国财政刺激措对经济同增长的效果渐,但我们认为,相
其它区,国经济仍会在更高的增长水平上企稳因,在成熟市场
中,我们认为国资产更一筹中国锐意过财政货币刺激措提
经济,因我们预期中国经济增长放缓的度将较为温和详见10页
我们认为球增长将放缓,国经济增长将领先于其它成熟市场,中国
经济增长平稳
2019年球企业盈利增长亦将放缓预期国企业盈利增长放缓的部
原因是,国在2018年企业所得税,推动企业盈利大幅上升,这导
企业明年盈利增长的对基数提高,难与2018年汤路预测数
据显,预计国盈利增长将由2018年24%的高水平回至2019年9%
的正常水平,但仍高于球平水平中国科技行业回暖,加上政府重点
推行刺激措提经济,带动兴市场企业盈利维双位数增长因
,我们仍看国兴市场
增长放缓关税影响企业景增添变量,或会为盈利预测带来不定因
素右下图“预期与现实相”显,析师盈利预测普由年初下
跌,尤欧为显根据往况,国兴市场价普盈
利下跌的趋势,而欧面临的政治增长风险可被估,尚未在市
场价格中
企业盈利增长可在2019年放缓,但我们认为国兴市场企业
力实现预期增长
2019年主题增长放缓
增长放缓
关国欧元区日本增长的贝莱德GPS标（2015年至2018年）
预期与现实相
自2008年析师盈利预测年度趋势与目对2019年预测的较
年
度
实
际
GD
P增
长
盈
利
增
长
预
测
国
国
国
日本
欧元区
欧
兴市场
2019年预测
欧元区
国兴市场价
普盈利下跌的趋势
2018年况
日本
1月7月2月8月3月9月4月10月5月11月6月12月
MKTGM0119A-703299-4/16MKTGM0119A-701447-4/16。