2Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2018Introduction Letter from the publisherThe mobile industry has passed a number of big milestones over the last two decades,which in retrospect have led to fundamental changes to our society. When mobile datatraffic surpassed mobile voice traffic in 2009, it was difficult to know what today’s use of mobile technology would look like. However, this year will likely go into the history books as the start of an even bigger societalchange. 5G and the Internet of Things (IoT) promise new capabilities and use cases, whichare set to impact not only consumer services but also many industries embarking on theirdigital transformations. 2018 will be the year for the first rollouts of 5G networks as well as large-scale deployments of cellular IoT.This change will require the combined effort of many industry players and regulators to align on spectrum, standards and technology. A lot is already happening, and in thisedition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, we take a closer look at the trends that will drive the mobile industry over the next five years.Cellular IoT is growing fast and this has led us to significantly increase our forecast. By 2023, we now estimate around 3.5 billion cellular IoT connections. This growth is set to impact industries and businesses across many different markets. 5G will kick off with enhanced mobile broadband as its first use case. By the end of 2023, there will be 1 billion 5G subscriptions, accounting for around 20 percent of mobile data traffic.The massive ramp-up of 5G subscriptions is expected to be fueled by third-generationchipsets, which will be available from 2020 on a variety of frequency bands.Securing the right spectrum for 5G in low, mid and high bands will be especiallyimportant in the near-term future. Global spectrum harmonization across countries will be the key to securing broad adoption and economies of scale for 5G.In the meantime, upgrading current 4G networks with the latest technology to caterfor increasing traffic volumes and enhanced customer experience will be on most serviceproviders’ agendas.2018 may seem to be just another year for an industry that has become used to highgrowth in numbers for smartphone subscriptions and mobile traffic. However, with thedevelopments in 5G and IoT, I believe it will be a pivotal year for our industry.I hope you find the report helpful and engaging! Publisher Fredrik Jejdling Executive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks 2018: A pivotal year for our industry Key contributorsExecutive Editor: Patrik Cerwall Project Manager:Anette Lundvall Editors:Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson Forecasts:Richard Mller Articles: Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson, Ritva Svenningsson, Per Lindberg, Kati hman, Tomas Sandin, Luis Rangel, Ida Sorlie, Sebastian Elmgren, Athanasios Karapantelakis, Lasse Wieweg, Mikael Halen, Jonas Edstam, Ricardo Queirs, Frank Muller, Lisa EnglundCo-written article: Roger Kirby (Swisscom) 3Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2018Introduction Contents Articles 20Network performance through the eyes of customers 24Realizing smart manufacturing 26Applying machine intelligence to network management 29Securing the right spectrum for 5G 32 Methodology 33 Glossary 34 Global and regional key figures Forecasts 04 Mobile subscriptions Q1 2018 06 Mobile subscriptions outlook 08 5G device outlook 09 Voice over LTE outlook 10 Regional subscriptions outlook 12 Mobile traffic Q1 2018 13Mobile traffic by application category 14 Mobile data traffic outlook 16 IoT connections outlook 17 Network coverage 18 Network evolution The content of this document is based on a number of theoretical dependencies and assumptions and Ericsson shall not be bound by or liable for any statement, representation, undertaking or omission made in this document. Furthermore Ericsson may at any time change the contents of this document at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences of such changes. 20172023CAGR 7.8bn 4.3bn 5.3bn 3.4GB 15EB 2.7bn 8.9bn 7.2bn 8.3bn 17GB 107EB 5.5bn Worldwide mobilesubscriptions 2% 9% 8% 31% 39% 12% Worldwide smartphonesubscriptions Worldwide mobilebroadband subscriptions Worldwide monthly datatraffc per active smartphone Worldwide total monthlymobile data traffc Worldwide LTEsubscriptions Find out more Scan the QR code, or visit ericsson/mobility-report Forecasts4Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2018 Mobile subscriptions Q1 2018 The number of mobile subscriptions grew at4 percent year-on-year, reaching 7.9 billionin Q1. China had the most net additionsduring the quarter (+53 million), followed byIndia (+16 million), Indonesia (+6 million),Nigeria (+3 million) and Bangladesh (+2 million). The high growth in Chinaduring the quarter is likely the result ofintense competition among operators,driving up the number of subscribers with multiple subscriptions. The number of mobile broadbandsubscriptions1 is growing at 20 percent year-on-year, increasing by 200 million in Q1 2018. The total is now 5.5 billion. The number of LTE subscriptionsincreased by 210 million during the quarter to reach a total of 2.9 billion. The netaddition for WCDMA/HSPA was around10 million subscriptions. Over the same period, GSM/EDGE-onlysubscriptions declined by 90 million. Othertechnologies declined by around 32 million. Subscriptions associated withsmartphones now account for around 60 percent of all mobile phone subscriptions.The number of smartphones sold declinedto around 340 million in Q1, representingaround 85 percent of all mobile phones sold in the quarter. The total number of mobile subscriptions was around 7.9 billion in Q1 2018, with 98 million new subscriptions added during the quarter. 1Mobile broadband includes radio access technologies HSPA (3G), LTE (4G), 5G, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX Mobile subscriptions Q1 2018 (million) North America390 Middle East415 Western Europe525 Central andEastern Europe580 Africa1,040 APAC (excludingChina and India)1,575 India1,185 Latin America690 China1,470 5.5bn There are now 5.5 billion mobilebroadband subscriptions. 。。。。。。